Sibir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[coco] 28/12/2008 21:38

Using litres sold in Sibirs petrol stations including BP. stations the market should value the petrol stations at $458,000,000 (£300,000,000)
Therefore the market is valuing the rest for £48,000,000 I rest my case(mkt cap at close on christmas eve £348,000,000).

[pablo1969] 23/12/2008 20:03

Lets hope they all get there rewards

[miamisteve] 23/12/2008 10:29

Yes sold out but still monitoring the situation. The loans they are assuming charge 14% pa interest btw.

When IEC is concluded, + if the share price pulls back a little here and a fairer deal on the property portfolio is reached I may return.

[coco] 23/12/2008 09:54

Cash and external funding.

The indemnity is a waste of space because he clearly doesn't have the resources to cover the debt in the first place. Simply trying to buy time and hope that the russian and world economy does a 180 in a years time. We could always take his shares - Thought you had sold out anyways thought your time would be better off over IEC with your fingers crossed !

[miamisteve] 23/12/2008 09:40

Was it established how the property purchases were going to be financed?

this is from the interims

Relatively small but important transactions to be concluded this year may require funding
from internal resources as external funding is
now extremely difficult to obtain. This may have a knock on affect on the dividend payment. We
are giving this matter high priority and
should know and announce our intentions before the end of November.


---------------------------

I think the petrol station sale was related to financing the MR T. bail out and that there may be more to come. If the city of moscow hold their ground then how will Mr. T meet his margin calls without jeopardising his stake in the company. Personally think that they have to devise a fairer solution to this problem. Buy less property assets/ or the same assets for less and let Mr. T relinquish some of his holding or pay off the rest of the debt through forgoing future dividends in the company.

The indemnity is a waste of space because he clearly doesn't have the resources to cover the debt in the first place. Simply trying to buy time and hope that the russian and world economy does a 180 in a years time.

[squintyflinty] 23/12/2008 09:02

I agree ,this is ridiculously undervalued,but I'm hoping that it keeps to this level for a month or so for my IEC shares to go unconditional and then I can invest the majority of the proceeds into this one.

[coco] 22/12/2008 23:56

Sale of STBP Holdings Limited (Sibir Energy)




RNS Number : 6285K
Sibir Energy PLC
22 December 2008



SIBIR ENERGY plc ("Sibir")
Sale of STBP Holdings Limited ("STBP")


Sibir announces that on Friday, 19 December 2008 it reached agreement with the TNK-BP
joint venture on the sale of Sibir's 25%+1 share
stake in a retail network of 56 BP-branded service stations in Moscow and the Moscow Region
for a consideration of $152.7 million to, be
received by Sibir by the end of January, 2009.
It is expected that the proceeds of this sale will be re-invested in the development of
the Company's MTK and Nefto branded network in
Moscow and for general working capital purposes.
In the year to 31 December 2007 Sibir's share of net profits in STBP was approximately $21
million.
Commenting on the announcement, Sibir CEO, Henry Cameron, said, "Sibir has ambitious plans
for expansion of its majority-owned retail
assets which number over 130 units and trade under the MTK and Nefto brands in Moscow and the
Moscow Region. A divestiture of its stake in
the BP-branded retail network will allow Sibir to streamline and concentrate its retail assets
in majority-owned assets and provide cash for
accelerated development.
The value of this asset represents a very small proportion of Sibir's total oil asset
portfiolio and yet the proceeds of the sale
represents approximately 25% of our current market capitalisation which demonstrates, in my
view, the extent to which our stock is
undervalued."


Enquiries to:
Henry Cameron, CEO
Moscow + 7 495 792 3045
Stuard Detmer, Member of the Board
Moscow + 7 495 792 3045
Rory Murphy, Strand Partners Limited
London [phone]


Sibir sell 56 25% owned bp stations (call it 14) for $152 million although the through put is 12% market share> MTK network has 69 stations and its through put is 11% market share> Mosneftproduct is 50.5% owned by Sibir and has 64 (call it 32) stations and is the fastest growing in Moscow, so if 14 are worth $152 what are the other 101 worth unberlievable really.

Then we have the JV with Shell with over a billion barrels of oil in place (to both parties) thats producing 160,000 barrels a day to both parties.

Then we have another two oil field producing 10,000 barrels a day

Then we have the eight Koltogorsky blocks with probably 500,000 barrels of oil discovered and to be discovered.

Then there is korimos and avtocard.

Then the Jewel in the crown is the refinary.

Sibir could take and pay all the properties and bulldoze then in to parks and give it all to the city of Moscow and still be undervalued - You mark my words - the only real corruption is the market in the way it is valueing Sibirs assets if I had 105 million pounds I would partner the Russian shareholders ther is too much cash flow for this to be ignored forever, If the Market does not rerate this share then a bidder will.

Regards Coco wearing coffee coloured glasses and eating pure granulated rich roast coffee and several packets of coffee creams - I suggest everyone else gives it a go !

[harryh05] 22/12/2008 21:03

lol COCO

I hope all is well

[coco] 22/12/2008 20:50

Nice profit of 57 million - Henry also agrees with me that were undervalued - you can say that again - Henry also agrees with me that were undervalued -Henry also agrees with me that were undervalued -Henry also agrees with me that were undervalued -Henry also agrees with me that were undervalued.

Regards Coco

[banj] 22/12/2008 17:13

Sibir announces that on Friday, 19 December 2008 it reached agreement with the TNK-BP
joint venture on the sale of Sibir's 25%+1 share
stake in a retail network of 56 BP-branded service stations in Moscow and the Moscow Region
for a consideration of $152.7 million to, be
received by Sibir by the end of January, 2009.

[pappupops] 21/12/2008 16:48

Any guess for opening price for sibir in the morning ?

[harryh05] 21/12/2008 13:43

Any thoughts on SBE for the short week ahead?

[coco] 19/12/2008 22:21

A347, are you saying that the last quater we were making a margin of $36 a barrel ?

[coco] 19/12/2008 21:55

Its amazing that we here everything first via the media than from Sibir, I'm interested to here the amount Sibir will recieve from this disposal.

I was also interested to note that the reason For our FD leaving was because he was to close to the other side of a deal, Im convinced sibir is going to be taken over on the cheap now even Chav has gone from the board of directors.

In my mind the property deal is more than priced in to the share price and this would have made a would be preditor think twice, now that it has been rejected so far, leaves the oil assets open, as chav is over a barrel at the moment with still holding the property.

I did say a week ago that the downstream assets were more prised and cash generative than the upstream - supplying your own oil through a refinery then direct to the pumps allows maximum cash generation and were back at a market cap of under 400 million the market I think is wrong and playing it short term hence the volatility I will be buying on dips from here.The thought of management being embarrased by the amount of cash its generating gets me salavatating.
I dont think (unfortunatly)the Sibir management will keep this under control and I think the Moscow government can see this and have moved to exploit the oppotunity by stopping the property deals. I think bennefield are extremley stretched and could either be forced out or force everyone else out. Sibir cannot keep batteling with everyone. I think this is becoming a game of chess and large Russian forces are playing bennefields weeknesses, there are twists in this that I dont know about - E.G the FD quitting / forced to quit was he leaking information ?

Need to do some research and will carry on soon.

[a3477681] 19/12/2008 15:31

Davron8
Thanks for your comments and sorry that you missed the event; especially so the circumstances. I wish you and family a speedy drying out and return to your abode. What a wretched business. We had our drive immersed in silt from a field run-off recently and that is bad enough to be squelching about in. However I will await summer (a dry one I hope) to replace the gravel just in case of a repeat.

[davron8] 19/12/2008 11:44

A3477681, Thanks for an excellant report of AGM/EGM. I have attended a number of past AGM's and like you found that they were well managed and Irun in the best traditions of the best PLC's.
The management team including the Russians are very willing to talk and discuss the future of the business.

I share your positive views for the future of this very good company managed by HC and his team

[a3477681] 19/12/2008 09:58

Coco. It must be a buy, but whose to say in these muddy waters. Nervousness in the market is crippling even the strong but what we have here is a company accepted in Russia as a Russian entity making cash and about to (year's time?)make a lot more. That is why it was paramount to preserve the shareholding as Russian. Its not our way of doing business but influential friends are essential there. The most profitable bit of the company as the price of oil drops is the refinery, the very deal that Mr T facilitated. They buy oil from the market as well as send their own to process and the lag in the petrol station prices allows more margin. I hope they are not taken over. I would rather wait. Koltogorsky is going to be a huge asset. It is their stomping ground and they know it well. There is not much that is going to stop Stuard Detmer from getting results.

[coco] 19/12/2008 09:15

Thanks A3477681 appriciated. - concensus BUY

[a3477681] 19/12/2008 09:02

I forgot to mention the reason for the departure of the FD was not at all related to the property but HC said had told him some weeks berore that "it was time to go after it was discovered he was rather close to the other side of a deal.(this last bit I could not properly hear or understand.

[a3477681] 19/12/2008 08:56

Edited for typos...
I attended the AGM and EGM yesterday. I have never been to a company AGM before but I would say it was well attended by both PIs and analysts and brokers. The directors and executives were all facing us on a long table with their name banners. Entry was strictly controlled and my nominee voting rights had to be checked with the company secretary.
After the chairman William Guinness opened he strongly requested us to restrict all questions to the resolutions and that the |EGM would be for the property questions he then handed over to HC who passed on to his Deputy CEO to kicked off with an excellent presentation of the company's E & P achievements and even more impressive downstream profits which at one point he admitted they had been recently making so much profit on he was too embarrassed to say how much! Whilst the oil price had been dropping they were still making a net profit upstream of $14 / b but downstream was $22 / b during the last quarter.
60% of their power requirements were from well head gas where they had installed equipment to avoid flaring and complied with the regulations on this.
Kologorsky was the considered to offer far better prospects even than the independent analysis of 269 and he thought would easily exceed this figure and be in the region of 500 ( I missed exactly what his figures referred to but think mmbs) 3 more wells are to be drilled in first ¼ 09 all paid from cash flow. Access to pipelines was superb as they run right by their operating area. Cape was to be 176m. The expenditure on the refinery upgrade will be delayed (until economic situation improves) There were more figures and production successes too numerous to relate here. He then handed over to Jeff Franks who is IC of the petrol forecourt refurbishments and has much experience doing this for BP and knows Moscow very well. In answer to a Q about the BP station possible sale HC said they had been considering the disposal of their BP stations for some time or most of last year as they had felt very vulnerable during the BP dispute and margins had dropped and this was in no way connected with the property deals. They wanted to develop their own chain of MTK stations and benefit 100% of the profits. Jeff said he considered there were 100 that they would start to develop (complete) this year.
All except one of the resolutions was passed by show of hands and that was surprisingly the buyback of shares which HC also voted against after several PIs spoke saying that it was not the job of the company to buy shares and they should stick to running the company and using the money they had to develop or give a dividend. Mr T stood down from the board but assured me in the interval that he will remain in the company and continue to work very hard for the company s usual.

So all their normal activities are going extremely well.

EGM
HC waded straight in saying that in the last 48 hours circumstances had changed with the indemnity offered by Mr T, and that the Moscow City Council and Msrs K & T were in dispute over the property deal. As I understood it the council wanted up-to-date valuations and undertakings about the costs etc to the company, and this was a matter between them and not the company. As such the vote would have to be postponed until (Jan?). Later he answered Qs saying that an announcement would be made as soon as resolved and they would not delay till the deadline. The atmosphere was really very businesslike and organised and all questions from the floor were dealt with and answered directly by HC or passed to the most relevant person. All spoke very well and straightforwardly. Mr K assured that his business reputation was extremely important to him and he promised that he would do everything he possibly could to see that the company's shareprice was protected. I liked his manner and straight approach although he reminded me and others of shall we say a military man: a very fit neat looking fellow that you would not wish to cross.

I was impressed enough with what I had seen and heard to buy a few more shares as I sipped the excellent smooth Rioja and nibbled at the canapés they served afterwards!. I do not know where the price will go in the near future but the business model is fantastic and I am reassured by all the people I met especially Stuard Detmer and also their young M&A finance guy Ramon who brokered the crucial deal with MOGC. They all work immensely hard including HC who never stops I am told, even at his age, and still looks very fit. I don't think that HC will rest until he has put all the demons to rest and has disposed of the properties but in the meantime if we stick with them we will be in one of the most profitable oil businesses around. Time has run out for me and will post this with all errors etc and hope it serves some use to others.

[coco] 18/12/2008 20:58

Hi harry I think these are now open to a take over now - probably a Russian company and probaly cheaply around 3.00 - 3.50 a share too much oil and the market cap is plainly undervalued concidering the property is now, not going to be wrapped up with the oil assets. - Market cap at tonights close is only 480 million - If I was Bennefieid I would be speaking to me mates and borrowing 0.75 billion

Regards Coco

[harryh05] 18/12/2008 20:16

COCO - Do you believe we will touch £1.60 by month end? My target remains £2.30

[creddy] 18/12/2008 16:15

are these paying a dividend and if so, how much and XD date when?

checked the interims at end sept but couldnt find anything relating to payment of a dividend.