Shire Share Discussion Threads

[karateboy] 31/3/2018 08:21

Big share holders should accept anything above £40 a share. They could go and buy other Pharma paying Dividend much better than 0.7%.if there is bidding war we may be paid >£45 a share. Sit tight and Good luck.

[mbmiah] 30/3/2018 21:58

Whoever is amongst the predators, one thing is for sure they are getting a good deal on Baxalta

[philanderer] 29/3/2018 23:30

Market report


Takeover target Shire gained a further 70.5p to £35.71 as investors await a bid from Japanese pharma peer Takeda.

The firm revealed its interest in the FTSE 100 company on Wednesday, sending its valuation soaring to $45bn (£32bn), and City analysts have cherry-picked Pfizer as another possible contender if a bidding war is sparked by Takeda’s interest.

[philanderer] 29/3/2018 16:56

Lex column in FT saying good chance this will draw out others....Pfizer, Novartis, AbbVie for example.

[mbmiah] 29/3/2018 15:59

Getting busy.....I would say shire is a good fit for takeda

[romeike] 29/3/2018 12:46

Don't like how trash talking a franchise that dominates 36% of the "sticky" haemo market has become the accepted narrative despite increasing evidence that Hemlibra will struggle to match up to the massive hype from Roche fan boys. We are near enough still at the point where the entire Haemo franchise has been "written out" of the share price - completely ridiculous and exactly why management should resist low ball bids seeking to exploit this negativity.

[philanderer] 29/3/2018 12:39

To be fair, they did give the heads-up on Takeda last week.

[romeike] 29/3/2018 12:35

Don't think much if BE's comments on Shire, seems consistently dismissive. You can hardly call Shire's haemo franchise "third-rate". Trash journalism.

[philanderer] 29/3/2018 11:53

Share plunge casts doubt on Takeda’s bid for Shire

Takeda Pharma shares plunged on Thursday, throwing its mooted $40 billion bid for Shire into serious doubt.

The Japanese drug giant said yesterday it was considering a bid for Shire, but didn’t say how it would fund such a deal.

In Tokyo trading, Takeda shares were down 7%, cutting $3 billion from its market value to leave it worth $38 billion (£27 billion).

“Takeda is just desperate to beef up its pipeline, and they’ve been doing small bits of acquisitions on the biotech side,” Fumiyoshi Sakai, a Tokyo-based analyst at Credit Suisse Securities told Bloomberg.

“But how they are going to finance $40 billion?”

Shire shares more or less held their ground today, dipping just slightly by 28p to 3471p.

That leaves it valued at £32 billion after a 14% jump yesterday.

The Irish drug maker has so far only said that it hadn’t received a formal offer, but analysts note that it is presently worth more than Takeda.

Takeda has until April 25 to make an actual bid or walk away.

Analysts say one function of Takeda’s interest could be to push Shire into a faster shake-up.

It is already part-way through a strategic review of its neuroscience business.

And it is presently digesting the takeover of Baxalta, a US haemophilia specialist.

UBS said in a note to clients: “The considered Takeda approach may be the event that triggers pressure on the board and management, and which brings back market confidence even if no agreement is reached.”

Others speculate that Takeda’s interest could prompt another bidder to enter the fray, perhaps AbbVie.

UBS added however: “Shire does not strike us as an obvious takeover candidate. There’s presumably a price at which the financial engineering would work.”

[philanderer] 29/3/2018 11:46

I've seen anything between £41 to £45 over the last two days.

[romeike] 29/3/2018 11:36

Bloomberg article today suggesting up to $50bn (note USD) - that's what? Just £39 / share? Pfft.

[romeike] 29/3/2018 10:49

I cannot see Shire management / key investors agreeing to a tie up below £52 - difficult to see how the deal with Takeda can proceed unless it is combined with some kind of spin off or divestment. Shire has better defences than is being suggested I think - nothing to stop them playing an Astra Zeneca and pointing out their relatively strong medium term pipeline.

I'd actually be pleased to see a cash and equity offer in the high 40s if only because the share decimation at Shire seems largely sentiment-driven linked to perceptions of the board post-Baxalta buyout and is out of step with the strong underlying performance of the company. Would have been better perhaps if Shire had stuck to its successful strategy of smaller bolt-on acquisitions.

Interestingly the choice of advisers might suggest to the more suspicious-minded that a deal has been worked on for rather longer than anyone might think. Pure speculation that though.

[soundbuy] 29/3/2018 10:06

Never great when you're gonna be offering a fair slice of paper and it falls off a cliff - similar story playing out at Smurfit, IPs paper fallen from near $58/59 to $51/52 after they made an offer..........


....holding both and neither interested parties can muster an all-cash offer.....

[philanderer] 29/3/2018 09:58

29th march Kepler Cheuvreux buy tp 4250p

reiterates

[wynmck] 29/3/2018 09:54

cnbc just now ...Takeda shares fell nearly 8% as worries t/over could put pressure on their finances.
Co. said bid consideration was in early stages and was only one of several options.

[ygor705] 29/3/2018 09:15

IMO Takeda's interest is driven by the weakness of sterling against the yen and the ridiculous rating for Shire due to incredibly poor management by the Board. The fact that the market still fails to appreciate any longer term potential astounds me. With Shire now in play in one of the hottest sectors in the global market, competitive positions are at stake and I think that we could well see explosions rather than smoke.

[demo trader] 29/3/2018 08:39

fire but no smoke YET, 3460P at the mo..

[exmooroil] 29/3/2018 07:26

Telegraph's Questor tipped SHP at £40 back in September. There should be an update today.

[ruethewhirl] 29/3/2018 07:07

Thanks Phil and all for great links, opinions and updates

[ny boy] 28/3/2018 21:44

Happy holding long term, collecting divi’s, anything more a nice fat bonus.

Reckon they will be paying more to take out (IMM) if next months phase 3 readout for Lupuzor comes in top line

Amazing it’s still only 140p to buy! Chores as usual

[philanderer] 28/3/2018 21:29

Olivetree Financial said: "We can get the maths to work at 4,500p with a 30% cash component, but that is already stretching the concept of NewCo maintaining an investment grade rating. The presence of Shire’s key advisers on the Takeda roster make it likely that Takeda enjoys a good deal of insight into what would be required to effect a transaction though, and although early stage it seems a full deal is indeed under genuine consideration. Remember too that Takeda has history of good sized M&A, although none quite the size of Shire.

"At the very least this should neutralise the negative sentiment in the market towards Shire, it is likely that many observers now comment on the takeout potential from other potentially interested parties - expect to see Shire shares well supported going forward, even if some fairly basic questions regarding Takeda’s abilities prevail."