Shire Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 21/2/2018 12:13

Afternoon EI , just a gut feeling. Only 3% of the portfolio now, so not too leveraged.

Top sliced a few LLOY which have done well to top up here.

[romeike] 21/2/2018 12:04

I am hoping a recovery will emerge once uncertainty is put aside, but the sharpness of the drop this morning is worrying. Though with numerous articles appearing in the financial and sector media taking a very negative spin on what were actually decent results and a slightly disappointing adjustment to forward guidance it is perhaps unsurprising. I think I have seen just one slightly positive article.

The drop over 12 months here is truly unprecedented representing absolutely massive value destruction with no clear justification. Either there is something really awful that various institutions have been aware of for over a year, but retail investors are in the dark about or this is an absolute bargain.

I would still be prepared to buy in, but as others have said I am looking for some evidence of real support. At this stage I would not be surprised to see this under £28. Absolutely shocking.

[essentialinvestor] 21/2/2018 11:59

Hi Phil, I was about to ask your view here,
Above post perhaps answers the question ).

[philanderer] 21/2/2018 11:54

I`ve added another 10% at 2957p.

[justiceforthemany] 21/2/2018 11:23

Ornskov July 2017 tells the FT share price of 4400p significantly undervalues the company and is fed up with it. share price now 2940p - WTF are you doing about it?!

[romeike] 21/2/2018 11:10

Public share notifications
A public share notification must be made when the net short positions of shares reach 0.5% of the issued share capital of the company concerned, and again at each 0.1% increment after that.

This relates to both increases and decreases of the position (including each time the position drops from 0.5% or above to below 0.5%).

[steeplejack] 21/2/2018 11:09

Shortracker shows all positions above 0.5 per centNotice: We no longer track disclosures after they drop below 0.5%. It is possible that the manager still holds a short position even if we are showing it as zero.It is not clear that hedge funds have been shorting Shire.Thats a bit worrying.It looks like there is a more general disaffection.

[zho] 21/2/2018 11:08

Toffeeman - I thought short positions were declarable above 0.5%. Still, I take your point.

[toffeeman] 21/2/2018 10:53

because 5% or more (disclosable size) would be huge (over £1bn) - but there will be many many shorts at below 5%

[zho] 21/2/2018 10:48

shorttracker has no disclosed short positions. How come?

[ruethewhirl] 21/2/2018 10:38

Waiting to top up but waiting for some evidence of a bottom.

[vk74] 21/2/2018 10:04

I am on with £30k at 2945p

[steeplejack] 21/2/2018 09:58

Times,Tempus Comment 15 Feb.Sums up concerns well."Stay the course as pills keep workingShire is less than half the size of the UK pharmaceutical giants Astrazeneca and Glaxosmithkline but, with three $2 billion-a-year drugs across three therapy areas, it is much less dependent than its bigger rivals on single blockbuster drugs. This means that when the patents start to expire and competition from generic rivals is unleashed, the pain will be more bearable.However, Shire is not completely immune to the threat from copycats. Key products, including Lialda, used to treat ulcerative colitis, Vyvanse, which treats attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and Firazyr could face generic competition when their patents expire, starting from next year. Accounting for nearly $3.5 billion in revenue, they make up a significant portion of sales. Roche, a competitor, has recently launched a haemophilia treatment, Helimbra, that could dent Shire's dominant position in this area and disrupt $3.8 billion of sales.The FTSE 100 company yesterday reported better than expected full-year results for 2017, with total revenues up by a third to $15.2 billion, ahead of forecasts of just under $15 billion. Growth was driven by strong trading in its immunology drugs division and good sales outside the US. The Trump administration's recent tax cuts also helped to boost the bottom line.Despite this, investors seemed to be spooked by a warning from Flemming Ornskov, the chief executive, that profits could be lower this year, with sales growth in the mid-single digit range, owing to "the anticipated impact of generics". Shire's share price, which has fallen 31 per cent in the past 12 months, declined 1.4 per cent to £31.35½.That's not the only pressure the company will face this year. It also warned yesterday that investment in its new plasma manufacturing plant in Georgia in the US will be a drag on overall growth.It is partly with pressures from generics in mind that Shire bought its leading American rival Baxalta in 2016 to strengthen its portfolio. It remains heavily indebted since the deal, with debt repayments likely to swallow up considerable cashflows in coming years. But on the positive side, the acquisition almost doubled Shire's revenues and helped it to expand its international footprint as well as its expertise in advancing regulatory and commercial activities.One of Shire's greatest strengths is its promising pipeline of drugs that could replace sales when its present bestsellers reach their patent cliffs. Recent products to emerge from the labs have been performing well, according to analysts at Hargreaves Lansdown, and have continued to broaden Shire's range of therapy areas, with the dry eye treatment Xiidra a particular success.Last year Mr Ornskov said the company was considering spinning out its ADHD drugs division into a separate business, having decided that its rare diseases and neuroscience businesses had "distinct strategic priorities". Roughly translated, this means that the neuroscience business needs more investment in R&D and less is needed for the rare diseases business, which has a strong pipeline. In preparation for this, Shire has pledged to publish separate financial metrics for each division from the first quarter of the current financial year.Yesterday Mr Ornskov said Shire would continue to weigh up the pros and cons of a split, adding that he would provide an update on the company's thinking at the time of its next half-year results. He did not comment on rumours circulating late last year that Shire could be a takeover target, with Pfizer, the American group, reportedly a potential buyer.Advice HoldWhy Despite short-term headwinds, it has a deep pipeline of commercial and development-stage drugs"

[romeike] 21/2/2018 09:28

This share is officially being trolled. Pharma down across the board, Shire gets slammed. Not the first time, been happening for 12 months. Written to Investor Relations to moan, they need to get a grip on this massive communications problem that has developed.

[ruethewhirl] 21/2/2018 09:19

Wow well there goes 3000.

So much for the strong psychological support.

More like hot knife through butter.

[demo trader] 21/2/2018 09:14

World's biggest miner........BLT (and all major miners)...........Good old British Airways

[philanderer] 21/2/2018 09:12

Something looks to be wrong for sure and it's having it's @rse shorted off.

The haemophilia case and total debt are the two main causes for concern I read about, plus now the 'no positive catalysts' in the forseeable future turning up yesterday.

So I suppose the shorters can point to those.

edit :

...and add in the strong £ ;-)

[bili1946] 21/2/2018 09:05

Perhaps one should look at what the whole market thinks rather than a couple of analysts?
Can anyone here remember a successful FTSE 100 company losing almost 50% of its value in one year and around 45% over 3 years and then go on to great things?
Especially in a bull market......

[philanderer] 21/2/2018 08:56

Easily below 2000p ric if this rate of fall carries on. Won't even have the cash to take on Roche in the courts let alone have a chance of winning it.

-7% just this week so far.

Are we looking at The Emperor's New Clothes ? ;-)

[sza2002] 21/2/2018 08:55

Heading to fill gap at 2925

[ric0chet] 21/2/2018 08:40

Every upgrade/downgrade sends the share price lower. At this rate, we'll be seeing share price below £20 by the summer

[philanderer] 21/2/2018 08:37

Chart support a 2875p followed by 2700p.

Morning everyone.

[mbmiah] 21/2/2018 08:18

Bum squeeze - sell off major

[demo trader] 21/2/2018 06:59

G.M.


Do they know what they are saying ? (like me)

JP Morgan from 'overweight' to 'neutral'....Target cut from 5000p to 3600p.
Today Citi's target....... 5500p.

Lock both of them in a room till agree.