Shire Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 06/12/2017 17:52

Well done EI :-)

Pressure mounting on the board at SHP.

Cigs and TSCO doing it for me today.

[philanderer] 06/12/2017 14:43

Afternoon EI , it's a funny old son of a gun this one for sure :-)

[essentialinvestor] 06/12/2017 10:07

Just back in, small amount only.

[justiceforthemany] 06/12/2017 09:42

Ornskov pull your finger out! 2 weeks left to announce spin off plans.

[ruethewhirl] 05/12/2017 09:56

Drifted from 38 to 36 on no news.

Can't win.

[philanderer] 05/12/2017 09:00

And the worst faller yet again this morning :-)

[swedeee] 04/12/2017 10:56

same here Phil. second largest holding (behind glen) too

[philanderer] 04/12/2017 10:33

Everything up except SHP :-)

[philanderer] 01/12/2017 17:31

justice , well done with that !

General drift down for my lot ending -0.4% for the week.

Couple of bad ones ABF and ECM , one good one with BVIC.

Good weekend guys.

[justiceforthemany] 01/12/2017 17:20

FTSE350 down 1.3% this week; Portfolio up 1.8% thanks mainly to a bit of a rise at Centrica and WPP. 2018 could be the year of the defensives. These things are cyclical. Pharma and utilities can rebound.

[philanderer] 01/12/2017 09:36

Luck with those EI .

How many points are you looking for ?

[essentialinvestor] 01/12/2017 09:36

Bought a very small amount of RTN, 279, oh my.

[essentialinvestor] 01/12/2017 09:35

Hi Phil, just had those back '64.

[philanderer] 01/12/2017 09:34

Morning EI , a couple of big hitters appointed today , but £ @ 1.35 doing the damage again.

Brass monkeys in my garden lagging each other :-D

[essentialinvestor] 01/12/2017 09:19

Sold yesterday's at 37.01, looking to add back if we take a dip.
Still looks cheap IMV, unless I'm missing something, which may be the case!.

[scobak] 30/11/2017 20:13

Shares and fairness are not related. We've been in this game long enough to know.
Still there is the odd reward (loss?)to even things up.

[justiceforthemany] 30/11/2017 19:14

No it is down in the US also by 0.5% against the DOW which is booming once again by 1.5% - amazing run in the US that has not been matched in the FTSE at all but I bet when the DOW starts falling the FTSE will also get butchered in sympathy. How is that fair?!!

[essentialinvestor] 30/11/2017 18:12

Wild day for the UKX driven by FX.

Aviva my main add, traded a lot of Tate.

[philanderer] 30/11/2017 18:04

justice , strong pound whacking all and sundry with overseas earnings .

FTSE100 -83pts on the week as the £ has risen.

[justiceforthemany] 30/11/2017 17:57

Too cheap? Market continues to hammer it.

[justiceforthemany] 30/11/2017 17:56

But even with this plethora of problems, it is hard to see that much downside for the shares. Broker Liberum estimates that even if the entire value of Shire's hemophilia franchise were written off, a fair "risked" net present value (NPV) for the shares would be 3,419p – only 8 per cent below the current price. However, despite Roche’s success, there is still likely to be significant value in the hemophilia business as many existing users are likely to remain loyal. On Liberum's "base case" scenario, which forecasts a 25 per cent decline in non-inhibitor hemophilia sales between 2017 and 2022, the broker puts the risked NPV at 4,228p - 14 per cent above the current share price.

Moreover, there are some reasons to be bullish about Shire. Its immunology division (14 per cent of annual product sales) reported 32 per cent revenue growth in the third quarter of 2017 – 18 per cent ahead of consensus forecasts – thanks to strong demand for infection prevention medicine Gammagard. Its oncology franchise is also gathering momentum, and recently launched unique products Mydayis (for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder) and Xiidra (for dry eye syndrome) are also performing well.

Meanwhile, self-help offers promise. Cost savings from the integration of Baxalta led to a 3 per cent reduction in general and administration expenses to $27m in the third quarter. And a manufacturing review has identified $100m savings from 2019 with the potential to increase this to $300m by 2023. Manufacture of Cinryze should be bought in-house early next year to address the supply problems. And a strategic review of its neuroscience business could mean a spin-off to help alleviate debt issues.

Bringing debt down could prove a major catalyst for the share price. Having peaked at $23.6bn after the Baxalta deal last year, net debt at the end of the third quarter was down to $20.4bn. Liberum expects year-end net debt to be less than three times cash profit at the year-end, at $19bn, a reasonably comfortable 2.2 times cash profits by the end of 2018 and net debt of a very manageable 1.5 times by 2019.

This reduction in net debt could drive a serious re-rating of the shares given that, according to Bloomberg data, Shire's current forward earnings multiple of nine is in the bottom one per cent of the 10-year range.

[justiceforthemany] 30/11/2017 17:56

IC View
Why Shire is now too cheap

Investors are right to be wary about Shire’s balance sheet. But management has an excellent track record of integrating acquisitions and there are clear signs of improvement. That means serious re-rating potential, especially if Shire can provide a bit of good news. As well as the potential for a well-received neuroscience spin-out, there are nine major pipeline or operational updates due in the next year. Buy

Last IC View: Buy, 3,726p, 1 Nov 2017

[philanderer] 30/11/2017 17:56

Update: A strong pound has sent the FTSE 100 into the red, amid strengthening hopes of progress in the UK's Brexit negotiations.

Sterling climbed 0.7% against the dollar to $1.35, building on yesterday's gains, while the euro was down 0.3% against the pound at 88.1p.

That weighed on the FTSE 100, which closed 67 points, or 0.9%, lower at 7,327.

The latest boost to the pound came from a Times report that British and European Union officials were close to a breakthrough on negotiations over the Northern Ireland border under Brexit.


Citywire.co.uk

[essentialinvestor] 30/11/2017 17:50

Had a small amount before the close, 36.671