 So what is going to happen in the next few months?
From the recent presentation we know that they will be marketing to the existing 1.2 million iron deficiency sufferers directly by digital communication to explain to them how Accrufer can help them. This is a fundamental change because so far it has all been educating the healthcare professionals HCPs to recommend it to potential users.
Much better to get potential users who have insurance to demand it from their HCPs. So instead of being a simple “pull” marketing strategy, this will be both “push” snd “pull”. Growth of retail prescriptions should accelerate especially with paediatric indication.
They also will relaunch Accrufer with this new strategy. Their new recruitment adverts for staff say..
“Join our best-in-class commercial team as we revolutionize the iron deficiency and anemia market in the US. The field team will relaunch ACCRUFeR® (ferric maltol), the only FDA-approved oral iron replacement therapy for adults with iron deficiency.”
After the chaos of the $530k per annum CEO Madisson, this new organisational planning and actual delivery is very very reassuring. |
NOBBYGNOME:Richbobs post has been deleted. I am all for genuine two way debate as seen in the Guilds but I will not tolerate trolls..YET he's got the BIGGEST troll on ADVFN working nobbygnomes thread.Purchaseatthetop BIGGEST fraudster on ADVFN suffered big loses last year on ENET AND AGL plus others amounting to over 200k in money and trolls other boards to offer financial advice......what a clown. Better off just driving his ambulance....... |
Shield have nearly completed their upscaling in New York recruitment. They were advertising for four new staff to cover four seperate areas of New York. Certainly their new strategy of concentrating sales force only where they can focus marketing and reduce wasted travel etc time to minimum plus the team leaders are only miles away instead of States away.
They recruit via RxSalesPros
The recent presentation showed they are only really bothered about New York, California, Texas, Florida snd Georgia. |
Richbob’s post has been deleted. I am all for genuine two way debate as seen in the Guilds but I will not tolerate trolls.. |
Personally I am more interested in the company than the people here.
“What does the study involve?
Participants will be randomly allocated to receive Ferric maltol (intervention group) or standard care (control group) postoperatively. Outcome measures will include a comparison of the change in blood indices, quality of life, allogenic red blood transfusion rates and postoperative complications between groups. Follow up will continue until the first postoperative outpatient visit at approximately 12 weeks following discharge.”
This trial that publishes in 2025 will mean that Feraccru will become standard part of treatment for about 50% of colo rectal cancer patients (over 100k a year). Do the maths!
I have contacted the team there and they are completing the data and preparing to release results. |
It’s the price a saying anything negative on some other boards. The attack dogs are activated. The odd thing is that naysayers should be welcomed as long as they explain and analyse their view. It helps prevent groupthink. |
richbob 1Member since: 15 Feb 20253 postshmmmmm |
lol it's one of the entertaining things about this platform.. |
Another random crazy avatar for the filter! |
Sitting on LNER right now going to visit my son at Uni. Lots of time for some thoughts.
What will the average net sales price be Q1 25? CEO stated they only started cutting down consignment numbers in Q4 24. So we should have more rises.
The $237 was a combo of $330/-$27 as compared to $330/-$60 in Q3 24. They raised the price of consignment sales so that both reduced the numbers and resulted in less negative revenue on the 10k still made.
If Q1 25 eliminates the negative impact of consignment while retail stays the same then we should see consignment down to say 8k while retail might rise to 36k.
36k at $330 is $11,880k and with no negative consignment that is an average of
$270 on 44k sales.
You can see clearly the focus on the bottom line snd the strategy to go cash positive. |
It’s only Canada but it could become a serious royalty stream because Canada is now starting to lower the thresholds for prescription iron deficiency treatment
“A years-in-the-making adjustment to guidelines covering how iron deficiency is measured in Ontario lab results will be a game changer for patients across the province, according to doctors who worked to make it happen.
A memo sent to physicians last week from Ontario Health says starting Sept. 9, the best practice guidelines stating the baseline of what has been considered a normal amount of iron will be raised. According to experts, the change means people who may have previously been told their iron levels are normal despite not feeling well can now be diagnosed with iron deficiency.”
Their own press says that this will result in more person having treatment
“Ontario could soon see more residents receiving treatment for iron deficiency thanks to new guidelines lowering the threshold for abnormal iron levels in the blood.
“Around the world, there's been substantial variation in what is defined as the lower limit of normal,” said Michelle Sholzberg, the director of hematology at the University of Toronto and the Hemequity lab at St. Michael's Hospital.
“People who've had true iron deficiency have not been flagged as having iron deficiency because it hasn't been flagged as abnormal and now it will be flagged… and it will prompt clinician action.””
Accrufer is the best solution for this need. Same is happening in the UK. All good. |
20-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs all looking gorgeous and golden cross beckoning |
Accrufer has now become the standard treatment for IDS in Canada
“A scientific review of these drugs against the criteria set out in C.01.040.3 of the Food and Drug Regulations indicates that these drugs require prescription status.
Ferinject (ferric carboxymaltose) is indicated:
for the treatment of iron deficiency anemia (IDA) in adult and pediatric patients 1 year of age and older when oral iron preparations are not tolerated or are ineffective. for the treatment of iron deficiency (ID) in adult patients with heart failure and New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II/III to improve exercise capacity.
Accrufer (ferric maltol capsules) is indicated for the treatment of
Iron deficiency anemia in adult patients who are unresponsive or intolerant to other oral iron preparations.”
If people wonder who might buy out STX then the owners of Ferinject would be high. When paediatric indication happens then we eat into their market even more. Nibbling them to death slowly. |
shield therapeutics
Supporting
World Anemia Awareness Day
"Today, we stand united in raising awareness for anemia-a condition that affects millions worldwide. By recognising the signs early and supporting each other, we can prevent the fatigue and even serious complications it can bring. At Shield, our commitment to global awareness and patient support for those suffering with iron deficiency with or without anemia, fuels a healthier future for all." Anders Lundstrom, CEO.
Shield are sponsoring this |
Astor. Now we know that retail gives all the revenue it is easy to extrapolate.
5k rise in retail each month brings 51k in Q4 25 at $330 is $16.8m US product
At 45% gross margin is $7.6m gross margin
Add $1.5m for other royalties and it is $9.1m
Which is EBITDA positive by $100k |
I hope we get an updated Hardman note soon with an updated 2025 forecast and introducing a 2026 forecast.
Since May last year the Hardman revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 haven't changed much. Their latest note from November was forecasting $30.6m for 2024 and $71.4m for 2025.
They were forecasting the company to be cash flow positive by the end of 2025 and still have $12.9m of gross cash at the end of 2025. |
Until a week ago we didn't know the underlying figures for retail sales. We now do and they are extremely good.
They are receiving $300+ for each retail prescription and retail prescriptions are showing very strong growth. They increased 94% in 3 quarters (from 16k in Q1 to 31k in Q4). That's a 24% quarter-on-quarter compound average increase.
Extrapolating the figure there is a clear pathway to becoming cashflow positive by the end of the year and comfortably within existing cash.
I believe the rerating in the share price has only just begun. |
No need to wish for good news, if we keep growing and hit cashflow positive in 10 months the price will take care of itself of itself, let's see where we are Jan 2026 |
Qipincha. In the last month we have gone from 2.3p to over 4p. That is a very good return for many. If there is no more news then a drift is inevitable. But I think more good news can arrive any day. I expect further Director buys in the next week and we are moving into many new launches RNS zone. Let alone an early release of audited acccounts and a boom outlook write up and interviews. Gonna be fun. |
I won’t be surprised and no problem if people sell for profit.
From 3-4p within a few days is a good return |
Plus we might see some sells now. 4p might be a slice and dice number for many. |
To show the bottom line impact. 16k consignment a quarter were reducing overall revenues by $1m! The increase in price of consignment units and reduction in number will be hugely reducing this drain of value. Well done team. |
Value hunter. It is 90%
“You sell your invoices to SCF in exchange for a percentage of their value, up to 90%.
After checking that they are payable, SCF pays you the agreed percentage of the invoice’s value immediately
SCF typically agrees to chase and collect the value of the invoice when it’s due”
I also know invoice factoring and can assure you it is 90% odd of the previous 90 days of invoices issued to the three major monster sized wholesalers. Not double the value. Just what STX will receive. |
PATT: typically in the US wholesalers are invoiced gross (roughly double the stated revenue) and the discount is then rebated to the big insurers / Medicaid so wholesaler AR is twice what you’d expect. There are rarely restrictions on receivables factoring as a proportion of sales as the credit is based on the wholesalers, not shield. The interim drawdown on the sallyport might only be to the level that was needed at the time and coincidentally roughly matched declared Q2 revenue. The FY results in April / may will be instructive |
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