Shanta Gold Share Discussion Threads

[lowtrawler] 22/11/2021 12:21

space_bob, not what I said at all. We have visibility on annual production at NLGM for the next 5 years and the type of drilling results seen today allow us to know similar production will be present for a 6th year. We will get similar results for the next few years thereby securing NLGM production for a much longer period than we currently have visibility over. Porcupine South could add throughput to the NLGM facility but we need to see financial projections on how this might be brought into the overall NLGM plan.

My point was that SHG appear to operate on a 7 year timeline with drilling planned to replace mined material rather than extend life. It's actually good economics because you don't want to spend money drilling and then not take advantage of the drill results for 10 years. However, it leaves the share price open to risk as to exactly how much the LoM really is.

Based on currently published timelines and costs for WK, there is a good chance SHG will not have to do a placing. At the point of a build decision for WK, I reckon SHG will have retained over $40m cash making loan finance a viable option for the balance. Of course, they may wish to embark on a wider exploration programme in WK and so a placing could still be sensible. The time for this debate will be in 18 months or so.

[space_bob] 22/11/2021 12:04

I've done plenty of research. The plan always seems to be to keep the wheels on the bus for the next 3-5 years. It's always jam tomorrow and there is always risk while waiting for 'tomorrow'.

[juju44] 22/11/2021 11:56

Red , you keep telling us but the price keeps falling . What planet are you on

[redhill] 22/11/2021 11:46

space_bob

You have obviously done no research whatsoever!

[space_bob] 22/11/2021 11:42

Exactly Lowtrawler. You look at it now and potentially just as Singida gets going with 20k pa, NLGM could either be forced to mine low yield reserves or even close down. Singida is already pretty low grade, so it might mean limping along until an inevitable placing to fund Kenya and then a 5 year wait for that to get going. Wouldn't be surprised if the plant and equipment gets moved from NLGM to Kenya.
They need to go for a big bang, drill everywhere fast because it's not that expensive and it gives clarity. Also accelerate Kenya - the drilling results are impressive, but we already know that - it's been done before at a cost of $150 million! They could even show some ambition and buy another miner.

[redhill] 22/11/2021 11:41

juju44

You are nothing if not predictable.

Look at the share trades today and you will see there is no reason for the fall.
Just Market Makers trying to get cheap shares from the gullible.

[lowtrawler] 22/11/2021 10:45

The BC drilling provides a strong indication of extended LoM with potentially even better grades than are currently being mined. Big tick in the box but I reckon LoM being extended has already been partially built into expectations.

Porcupine South is 22Km from NLGM and has poorer grades albeit near surface. I would be interested to see some economic projections on that source.

SHG have shown production estimates for NLGM in the 5-year plan but it would be good to get extended projections. Unfortunately, I think they would fall foul of rules were they to predict production on resources they haven’t even drilled. As the LoM extension drilling tends to replace each years production, it is unlikely we will have information projecting out more than 5 years meaning NLGM will constantly show a 5-year LoM even though we can reasonably expect it to be much longer. I believe LoM concerns over NLGM hold back the share price Perhaps we need more extensive drilling around NLGM to show LoM at 10 years or more?

SHG have created a similar situation for Singida. The 7 year LoM is likely to be far longer but will only be proven as they go. I can understand drilling costs money and they don't want to drill too far in advance of production but I would feel much more comfortable if they had a rolling 10 years rather than rolling 5-7 years.

They appear to be adopting a similar process in WK. The infill drilling aims to move inferred resource to indicated but does not set out to find new resource. It means WK is likely yo go ahead with not much more planned resources than we are currently aware of.

[ianio5691] 22/11/2021 10:34

BIKWIK
Good to see you posting here, and really appreciate the charts - as from the days of old! (VAST JPR...)


If you get 5 mins - could you cast your eye over I3E and let me know your charting thoughts.
(Sorry for O/T)

[redhill] 22/11/2021 09:22

chestnuts

The grades are good enough but i'm not really expecting much buying on these numbers. It's just a steady as you go update on probable life of mine extension .
Nothing that says go out and fill my boots!

What should move the market is Phase 2A infill drilling at WK & Regional drilling at WK, both of which are due to be reported before the Q4 update.

[chestnuts] 22/11/2021 09:14

Well those grades are very good again, but no sudden rush this morning like we have had in the past, maybe it will be a gentle buy in as the day goes on.
Some day all this good news ie extending mine life will extend the share price upwards.

[338] 22/11/2021 08:04

Very good RNS, thanks Eric 👍

[redhill] 22/11/2021 08:02

It's all about the life of mine extension.

The Lupa gold fields are vast and presently they are exploring as close to the processing plant as they can.
About 5 years ago they announced some grab samples at sites that were 40-50 k away. Great grades but they would have to haul the ore back to the processing plant.
Still plenty of gold on sites which Shanta hold the exploration licences.

[bikwik] 22/11/2021 07:28

Looks like it might gap up.

[qs99] 22/11/2021 07:20

Nice old RNS this morning IMO. Anyone impressed with the grades?

[bikwik] 21/11/2021 23:07

Latest forecast on gold from Jim Curry:



Basically looking for 10 day cycle to bottom this week then up for a final advance up into Month end. Then decent correction lower in December to set up a strong rally into Jan/Feb.

Just see where gold is on the 72 day and 154 day detrend cycles. Gold can go a bit higher on the 72 day but will be very extended above the 154 day so its likely to come sharply back down into December.

[bikwik] 21/11/2021 22:58

Latest downleg on SHG currently at 26 days, though touched low of 11.85p on day 19 then again on day 24, last week. This is the longest of the previous 7 downlegs shown on the chart since last years high.

Its clearly due or overdue for the next rally, which is suggested by the 27 and 81 day cycles (post 549). But it hasn't confirmed anything yet. It did break the downtrend line shown on the chart below and has held above it for a few days, which is the first sign of a possible rally.

But it hasn't really broken the more key downtrend shown on the chart on post 549. If it wants to rally its got to get over 12.25p mid price and close over it, then it'll be risk on.

(all the other declines not shown are 5 days or less).


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[338] 19/11/2021 12:56

What if PoG > $2k... and SHG will still stay idle 😁

[juju44] 19/11/2021 11:40

Patience , you should get them cheaper with the rate they are being dumped

[redhill] 19/11/2021 11:38

Shares still on offer at 12p this morning.

[plat hunter] 19/11/2021 10:50

Patience is most certainly requisite here. Was a 1k im profit just a few weeks ago, all given back, bar circa £20 lol.Although, my holding has increased by 17.24% for free in the couple months I've been here.

[michaelfenton] 19/11/2021 10:22

When it does let me know juju.