Severfield Share Discussion Threads

[damanko] 11/5/2016 22:15

As in a little birdie ....

I hear that Severs has been appointed by the client in the design & supply of steel for the retractable roof being built over the next few years on number one court at Wimbledon. Quite a result, there was stiff opposition.

[cc2014] 05/5/2016 14:15

It seems that finally Winterfloods have stopped being aggressively on the offer.

Fingers crossed for the turn here

[thomasthetank1] 03/5/2016 12:03

Read Edison's note on SEVERFIELD PLC (SFR), out this morning, by visiting hxxps://www.research-tree.com/company/GB00B27YGJ97
"Severfield’s rising UK order book and improving margins set a good tone ahead of FY16 results on 15 June. A recent capital markets event served to reinforce the margin development path that the company is on, with further progress targeted. Little of this appears to be factored into the share price currently and we believe the scope for outperformance is now significant..."

[cc2014] 29/4/2016 12:53

More decent sized buys and sells. Whoever is selling here is getting on my nerves. At least they are shifting them - it can't go on forever

[cc2014] 22/4/2016 18:58

they are matched imho. So, 500k bought and 500k sold.

[jadeticl3] 22/4/2016 17:54

Are these big sales shown on my screen real? Have over 1M shares been bought compared with 10,000 sold?

[cc2014] 22/4/2016 13:22

Some more decent sized trades going through today, as whoever is selling continues. Maybe the end? Maybe not?

I know nothing of this HSE case but £180k seems neither here nor there related to the size of this company. Also, I would expect a contingent liability to have been held in the accounts for some time to cover it. If the costs of servicing the case stop surely that's a good thing?

[maroni tony] 21/4/2016 22:01

Yeah, agreed. But the case has only just been closed. As well as the penalty, the internal resources / costs needed to service a HSE case is huge.

[rhomboid] 21/4/2016 21:52

I'm not sure what you mean Maroni Tony , that is old news & I'm hopeful that Severfield is a safer place to work today than in 2013,

[maroni tony] 21/4/2016 21:33

Shareholders coming to terms with cheesegrater liabilities, plus £180K hit from HSE for a workshop fatality in 2013.

[waldron] 21/4/2016 20:36

Does Switzerland really benefit from EU bilateral accords?
By Samuel Jaberg

Business
in depth: Swiss-EU relations

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Apr 21, 2016 - 10:50
On 21 June 1999 in Luxembourg, the first package of bilateral agreements between Switzerland and the EU was signed. Seventeen years later, the bilateral approach has struggled to take off. (Keystone)

On 21 June 1999 in Luxembourg, the first package of bilateral agreements between Switzerland and the EU was signed. Seventeen years later, the bilateral approach has struggled to take off.
(Keystone)
As Switzerland moves closer to implementing the initiative “against mass immigration”, the country’s politicians, economists and business leaders have clashed in a fierce debate over the pros and cons of the bilateral agreements with the European Union.

The free-market camp says the accords are crucial for maintaining strength and growth in the Swiss economy.

“Anyone downplaying the importance of the bilateral accords is actively playing with fire,” warned Economics Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann last year.

But isolationists, led by the conservative right Swiss People’s Party which was behind the immigration initiative, argue the country will be no worse off without the accords.

“Switzerland will not fall apart without these so-called bilateral agreements,” argued People’s Party strongman Christoph Blocher recently on his private television channel, Teleblocher.
Worse off

The first series of seven EU bilateral accords (known as Bilaterals I) was adopted in 2002 and covered the free movement of people, technical barriers to trade, public markets, agriculture, land and air transport, and research. A second series of accords was adopted in 2004.

Models conducted by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), which reports to Schneider-Ammann, estimate that terminating the Bilaterals I would weigh down Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP) by between CHF460 billion ($480 million) and CHF630 billion over the next 20 years. In other words, it would cost the Swiss economy the equivalent of almost a year’s income at the current rate, according to the SECO report, which relied on two studies from research institutes BAKBASEL and Ecoplan.

Taken in isolation, cancelling the agreement for the free movement of people and returning to immigration quotas, as advocated by the People’s Party, would lead to a 3%-4.5% reduction in GDP by 2035. The impact on the economy as a whole of terminating the remaining six Bilaterals I accords would be less dramatic, but the sectors concerned, particularly research, “would be heavily impacted”, SECO warns.

A separate study by free-market think tank Avenir Suisse argues that large businesses as well as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), consumers and the middle class have all been the beneficiaries of bilateral agreements with the EU.

For its part, the Swiss Business Federation, economiesuisse, has calculated that without the bilateral agreements, economic growth per resident would have been 5.7% less between 2002 and 2014. Put simply, every Swiss resident today would earn an average CHF4,400 less per year.
Variable results

It is no coincidence that there is a sudden proliferation of studies demonstrating the benefits of the bilateral agreements with the EU.

Since 50.3% of Swiss voters rejected joining the European Economic Area (EEA) in 1992, the portion of the population sceptical of the government’s path of negotiating bilateral agreements has continued to grow. Those in favour of bilateral agreements are still in the majority, but their numbers have declined by 12 points in less than a year, according to polls carried out by gfs.bern.

And so on the eve of a likely vote that will conclude the implementation phase of the initiative against mass immigration, the nervousness of both the authorities and major economic organisations is palpable.

The isolationists have been quick to counter-attack. Florian Schwab, an economist and journalist at Weltwoche, a weekly news magazine that aligns itself with the ideas of the People’s Party, analysed previous studies on the subject. He concluded there is no scientific agreement that there has been a statistically significant positive effect as a result of the accords.

Effects of terminating Bilaterals I

On April 21, economic forecasters BAKBasel said terminating Bilaterals I posed the greatest risk to the Swiss economy, with all cantons – and especially border cantons – potentially affected.

According to economic models, growth would be a quarter less than with the agreements. Also, from 2030, individuals could be almost CHF3,500 worse off a year.

If the agreements were terminated, new negotiations would begin, but the longer these went on, the greater the damage to GDP, BAKBasel said. It calculated that a realistic three-year negotiation period could cause a GDP loss of around CHF50 billion.

“These accords are not as existential for the Swiss economy as people say. They could also be offset by other economic policy measures,” Schwab argues.

Cenni Najy, a researcher with Swiss foreign policy think tank foraus, notes: “These studies come at a crucial moment for the future of the bilateral path. It is therefore unsurprising that the results vary greatly according to the methodology employed and the point of view of the authors.”
Which growth model?

One thing is certain: the wide support for the advantages of the bilateral path during the first vote on May 21, 2000 – the People’s Party did not actively support the referendum – is slowly crumbling. This is down to a growing euroscepticism within the population and the negative impacts of immigration and economic growth that was higher than predicted or badly anticipated by the authorities: wage dumping, rising real estate prices, gridlocked roads and overcrowded trains.

“Most of the studies are happy enough to coldly analyse the positive impact of the bilateral agreements on GDP or the flexibility of the labour market,” says Najy. “The negative effects, like the pressure in recent years on infrastructure due to mass immigration or wage dumping, are paid little attention.”

By narrowly accepting the initiative “against mass immigration”, a majority of Swiss decided to send a signal to the authorities to force them to take their concerns into account, Najy says.

“But again today, the political class, particularly at the cantonal level, continues to underestimate the problems,” he says.

“Since February 9, 2014, they’ve been talking about immigration quotas or the national preference, but the central question of the desired growth model has never been raised. If we want to limit immigration, we have to first reduce the attractiveness of our country. But today, many cantons continue to practise aggressive taxation policies with the aim of attracting foreign multinationals and the expatriate personnel that goes with them.”
Potential fallout

Jacques Lévy, professor of geographic policy at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL), also expresses reservations about the economic studies that try to determine to the last franc the effects of a policy of which the global impacts are difficult to quantify. However, he warns against the temptation to withdraw, a move which he says has never benefited any nation.

“Since the beginning of the 20th century, all the examples of closing a country or a region off from the rest of the world have resulted in serious development problems. This is even truer today as we live in a world in a state of flux,” he says.

At the initiation of former cabinet minister Pascal Couchepin, a number of Swiss big names are also warning of the wider effects of voiding the bilateral accords.

“The political problem is not mentioned [in these studies]. A kind of economic war with the European Union would be catastrophic for investment and morale in Switzerland,” Couchepin said during a television interview on Swiss public television, SRF. Especially because, despite the diversification of trade, the EU remains Switzerland’s largest trading partner.

However, opponents of the bilateral agreements argue that such a commercial war is unlikely. They say Switzerland imports more from the EU than it exports and so trade facilitation principally favours the European nations.


Translated from French by Sophie Douez, swissinfo.ch
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George1295 Apr 21, 2016 12:51 PM
STAY IN EU

- If you are impotent to negotiate business in globalized world … including incapability to negotiate trade agreements with individual EU-serf countries
- If you believe that bureaucracy in Brussels (and its backstage) is the only way to ensure prosperity of Switzerland
- If you believe that you are so impotent to drive your economy in globalized waters without charitable donations of other EU-serf countries
- If you believe that charitable donations from EU have an economic sense rather than political one
- If you believe that charitable donations increase your real capabilities to compete on global markets
- If you are ready to betray direct democracy and shift power from your people to shapeless EU backstage
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Luzerning Apr 21, 2016 5:05 PM
"EU-serf countries" "shapeless EU " blah blah... It's funny how anti-EU internet keyboard warriors just spout out the same thing over and over. The same emotional language of nationalism. Basically, you're saying that 28 EU countries are completely deluded and joined a completely worthless and deeply undemocratic organisation? For example, if you knew anything about pan-european coordination of efforts and legislation in the science and environmental sectors you wouldn't be so dismissive. Ignorance must be a wonderful thing. But for the rest of us, it's a pain in the backside.

[waldron] 21/4/2016 20:30

Brexit poses ‘biggest risk’ to Swiss exporters
By Matthew Allen, Zurich

Business Politics

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Apr 21, 2016 - 17:18
Swiss goods have become 10% more expensive for eurozone customers since January 2015. (Keystone)

Swiss goods have become 10% more expensive for eurozone customers since January 2015.
(Keystone)
A British vote to leave the European Union on June 23 could lead to serious negative consequences for Swiss exporters, according to a government agency that promotes Swiss business abroad.

Switzerland Global Enterprise (s-ge) chief executive Daniel Küng said a Brexit is the number one concern for the health of Swiss exports in the near future. It would be a “hammer blow” for struggling companies that have seen margins eaten away by the strengthening franc.

Swiss goods have become 10% more expensive for eurozone customers since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) gave up defending the euro-franc exchange rate in January 2015. Given the continued fragile state of the political and economic environment within European Union, the euro would likely plunge if Britain leaves the bloc, Küng said on the fringes of s-ge’s annual conference in Zurich on Thursday.

“The polls point to a real possibility that a Brexit might take place,” Küng told swissinfo.ch. “If that happens, it could have consequences for the Swiss franc with the euro could weakening fast and more money flowing into Switzerland. Nobody knows at present what the SNB’s reaction would be.”

Some concerned companies have started to prepare for a possible Brexit by hedging their currency exposure, he added. Currency issues far outweigh other global risks, such as a slowdown in Chinese economic growth, low commodity prices and a weakening of demand in some developing economies, Küng told journalists.
Industry 4.0

Britain was one of the few European Union bright spots for Swiss companies last year with exports rising 16.2% to nearly CHF20 billion ($21 billion). Swiss exports to the Eurozone, by comparison, fell 6.7%. Companies have been busy diversifying into different parts of the world, but 45% of all exports from s-ge clients still end up in the eurozone

Across the globe, the sale of Swiss goods and services abroad fell 2.6% in 2015 but still managed to register a creditable CHF203 billion ($211 billion) before rallying further in the first quarter of this year.

Despite weathering the strong franc storm better than many economists thought possible, Swiss companies were warned by s-ge on Thursday not to rest on their laurels. One way they could make up ground on foreign competitors is to take a lead in the digital revolution that is currently sweeping over all industries.

The ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’, or ‘Industry 4.0’, encompasses the rapid digitalisation of factories, logistics and customer support services. Companies will soon be awash with big data and intelligent robots, so had better adapt to the new trading environment, stated s-ge in its Industry 4.0 white paper produced on Thursday.

The fast-changing landscape can also bring vast benefits for small Swiss exporters, Küng insisted. For one thing, Industry 4.0 could help Swiss firms better penetrate growing markets without the need for building up expensive infrastructure in those countries, he said.

swissinfo.ch
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lynnlarkspur Apr 21, 2016 6:24 PM
Anyone who believes that a withdrawl by the British from the EU will result in damaging the Swiss economy is living in cloud cuckoo land and not of the clock variety . Both Britain and Switzerland were members of EFTA and benefitted from that membership . If Britain leaves the financially crippling EU Club then great , lets leave all those highly paid non elected bureaucrats to the remaining members of the EU to pay and have to suffer . Both the Brits and Swiss are traders and should as has been displayed by Swiss Company's , increase their trading footprint by expanding trade with the rest of the world if for no other reason than to spread the possibilities of trading with any one nation or block of nations and being caught up in an economical down turn . After all if Britain leaves the EU the remaining members are not just going to stop trading with her nor will Switzerland . At the same time the remaining members of the EU are not just going to stop trading with the Swiss or vice versa , the nations of the EU need Switzerland as much as Switzerland needs the nations of the EU for trading with, it is a mutual symbiotic relationship . I have no doubt that if Britain leaves the EU it will not be the last Country to do so , as the feeling of the people of Europe against this vast bureaucratic organsiation has been growing steadily year by year for some time . The scaremongers of this world are having a field day in the run up to the Referendum on Britains stay in or get ourt election . Lets hope that the Old Lion will awake and breath new blood into the country and give encouragement to others not to make the same mistake that it made decades ago when it joined this very expensive Club . Provided that Swiss exports do not lose their quality , nor reliability and attractiveness then they will always have markets in the UK for their products and when talk of Switzerland joining the EU evaporates then the Government , the People and Swiss Industry can concentrate on the task of increasing trade and trading agreements with the rest of the world . If the Government really wants to help the manufacturers of Switzerland and the Home economy such as the Tourist Industry then perhaps it should reconsider the position of fixing an exchange rate for the Swiss Franc that would make Products , Services and the Manufacturers of such items more competetive . Afterall it might cost a little in the short term but in the long term the benefit to the Country will be immeasureable

[cc2014] 18/4/2016 22:01

hmm - someone wants out. Hopefully that's the end of it

[owenski] 18/4/2016 14:10

that's a lot of volume going through

[ariane] 14/4/2016 12:49

Swiss negative rates not yet at lower bound -SNB's Maechler

Switzerland's central bank has room left to push interest rates further into negative territory, Swiss National Bank policymaker Andrea Maechler reiterated on Thursday, adding that Swiss inflation was still low.

The SNB uses negative interest rates and currency intervention as its main policy tools to rein in the strong franc and try to give the export-dependent economy a boost.

Its now charges banks 0.75 percent for surplus deposits at the central bank and aims to keep three-month money market rates around the same level.
PUBLICITÉ

"There is a lower bound, that's an easy question to answer," Maechler told a financial panel when asked whether there was a lower limit for rates and if negative interest rates were working.

"The more difficult one would be where is it? On that one I don't have an answer. There is a lower bound, it's not infinite."

She said the SNB was not ruling out a further cut in interest rates.

"Are we excluding a further step? Absolutely not.... But we recognise that any further step means higher risk. And that these risks can be increased exponentially. It's up to whether the benefits outweigh the costs."

Maechler also addressed Switzerland's deflation concerns after consumer prices fell 0.9 percent year on year in March.

In its March forecast the SNB, which aims to keep consumer price inflation between zero and less than 2 percent, predicted inflation of -0.8 percent for 2016 and +0.1 percent in 2017.

"Our key objective is price stability, to ensure price stability in the medium term," Maechler said. "Inflation right now is still too low for our comfort."

Asked about prospects that Britons could vote in June to leave the European Union, she said: "We do what central banks do. We prepare, we are ready, particularly to be there in case there are turbulence in the financial markets." (Reporting by Fathin Ungku; Writing by Michael Shields)

[waldron] 01/4/2016 18:13

Despite risks a more negative Swiss interest rate possible says SNB’s Maechler

01/04/2016 By Le News Leave a Comment

Brought to you by Investec Switzerland.

The Swiss National Bank won’t rule out another interest rate cut, though any measure must be weighed with a view to its potential side effects, Governing Board Member Andrea Maechler said.
© Yulan | Dreamstime.com

© Yulan | Dreamstime.com

“We’re always looking into other options, if needed — we’re looking into all of them,” Maechler said at an event for financial professionals in Zurich on Thursday. “We’re not excluding any of them, including a possible further reduction in the interest rate.” For more than a year the SNB has pursued a twin-pillar strategy of negative interest rates of minus 0.75 percent and a pledge to intervene in currency markets. Additional easing in the neighboring euro area has repeatedly sparked speculation among economists that the SNB may decide to lower rates further in a bid to maintain the interest rate differential. Analysts think the SNB could cut its deposit rate to as low as minus 1.25 percent if needed, according to Bloomberg’s most recent monthly survey.

By Catherine Bosley (Bloomberg)

[waldron] 21/3/2016 08:49

Swiss current account surplus narrows in Q4 - SNB
ZURICH, March 21

Switzerland's current account surplus narrowed to around 16 billion Swiss francs ($16.48 billion) in the fourth quarter, 4 billion francs less the year-earlier period, Swiss National Bank (SNB) statistics published on Monday showed.

The decrease was principally the result of a lower receipts surplus in the investment income component. This surplus fell by around 6 billion francs to 5 billion francs in the quarter, the SNB said.

($1 = 0.9711 Swiss francs) (Reporting by Michael Shields)

[grupo] 18/3/2016 19:38

Mar 18, 2016 - 11:00
London is one of Europe's most powerful centres of business and finance. (Keystone)

London is one of Europe's most powerful centres of business and finance.
(Keystone)
The numbers are clear: with CHF11.7 billion ($11.8 billion) in exports, some CHF80 billion of investments and 194,000 employees, Britain is one of the most important business locations for Swiss firms. What is less clear is how the picture will look if Britain leaves the European Union.

Half of the 185 companies, from both countries, recently surveyed by the British-Swiss Chamber of Commerce (BSCC) believe their economic outlook will be poorer if Britons vote to leave the EU on June 23. Only 13.5% think prospects will improve with a Brexit while just over a third say business will be unaffected.

But the anonymous comments attached to the survey (see below) highlight the confusion that surrounds the potential split.

Comments from the BSCC survey

“Our ability to passport into the EU through London would need to be clarified in the renegotiation process and although no changes are expected for two years, there will be uncertainty and market volatility and consequently other options may become more attractive bases. However a decision to move from London would also be very complex in that two-year period.”

"My business is a Swiss SARL so I am assuming that business will not be directly affected if the UK leaves the EU."

"I am running a Swiss SARL as a 'frontalier'. It is altogether possible that if Britain leaves the EU, this will no longer be possible (t has only been possible since 2004 with the free movement of people bilaterals) and I will have to shut down my company. This will benefit precisely no-one. Already, I will make no additional investment in the period leading up to the referendum. In short, this is only bad for smaller British business."

“My business is strongly focused on the UK and I am very concerned about the immediate, medium and long term consequences of a potential vote for the UK to leave the EU,” states another firm. “I fear that Brexit will present insurmountable challenges for the country and will significantly impact upon its relative attractiveness.̶1;

“Being a European bank, if Britain leaves the EU, we will have to adapt our set up and probably leave many businesses currently run out of London. Overall it will impact costs and changes, so it will be both negative for our firm and negative for Britain as we will have to lay-off many employees.”

The fact is, companies in both countries are frantically trying to work out which way the wind will blow if Britain chooses the Swiss route to EU relations.

Such forthright comments are made under the cover of anonymity. In Switzerland, bosses are reluctant to break silence for fear of being accused of interfering in foreign politics, angering shareholders or simply because they have not formed a clear enough picture of all possible eventualities.

The few executives who have been enticed into speaking out on Brexit also give mixed opinions. “Every company would be forced to re-evaluate the implications of investing in the UK,” Nestlé chairman Peter Brabeck told Sky News in January.

But Sergio Ermotti, chief executive of UBS bank that employs 5,500 staff in London, gave a more optimistic assessment, albeit couched in caution. "I expect that we would keep a strong presence but that depends on a lot of factors which today are not yet clear,” he told Germany’s Süddeutsche Zeitung earlier this month.
Lobby groups

The consensus opinion is that it would take Britain two years to prise itself free from the EU. And then it would have to renegotiate relations with the EU and the rest of the world as an independent entity. That has resulted in a lot of question marks concerning the potential future lay of the land.

This is reflected in the contrasting stances of Swiss business lobby groups. “There will be no sudden shock or catastrophe if Britain leaves the EU,” Jan Atteslander of the Swiss Business Federation (economiesuisse) told swissinfo.ch. “The world will still be the same on June 24. What will be different is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the future of the economic integration in Europe of the British economy.”

Furthermore, Atteslander believes that the markets have already priced a potential Brexit into currency exchange rates. In other words, because many investors have already hedged their currency bets in light of a possible split, the pound and euro will not sink too drastically against the franc unless the markets are hit with unexpected news regarding Brexit.

However, Atteslander also thinks that companies will factor in the current economic uncertainty when deciding how much money to invest in Britain in the short-term.
Currency risks

Swissmem, the lobby group for electrical engineering, metals, fine tools and machine building firms, has a more pessimistic stance. Its member firms ship 4% of their goods to Britain.

“In the short-term, a Brexit would increase uncertainty in the EU,” Swissmem said in a written statement to swissinfo.ch. “This could have consequences on the franc-euro exchange rates. We would assume an upward pressure on the franc with subsequent [negative] consequences for the export industry.”

In the long-run, a Brexit would weaken the EU economically, in the view of Swissmem. This would spell further bad news for Swiss companies.

Switzerland Global Enterprise (s-ge), a government agency that facilitates foreign trade for Swiss firms, told swissinfo.ch that the companies it advises “in most cases don’t plan to react in terms of reviewing their strategy or similar until the situation has become more predictable.”

Swiss-British trade

Last year Swiss firms sent around CHF11.7 billion of exports to Britain and received some CHF6.6 billion of imported goods (without jewels or precious metals). That makes Britain the fifth largest receiver of Swiss goods and the eighth largest provider of imports to Switzerland.

If precious metals and jewellery are included to the statistics, Britain is the second largest supplier of goods to Switzerland.

Switzerland’s record of investing in Britain is even more impressive. At CHF78.7 billion (2013), Britain is the third largest beneficiary of direct foreign investments (buildings and machinery) by Swiss companies. At the end of 2013, Swiss firms employed 193,700 people in Britain – the fourth largest concentration of Swiss paid jobs abroad.

By the end of 2013 British firms had invested an accumulated CHF21.3 billion in Switzerland, creating 26,800 jobs. HSBC, Vodafone, BP and Unilever have the biggest Swiss presence of all British firms, according to the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco).

swissinfo.ch

[wipo1] 15/3/2016 15:57

Tempted to rebuy a small amount