Severfield Share Discussion Threads

[maywillow] 26/2/2016 13:35

Swiss franc rises on ‘Brexit’ angst

24/02/2016 By Le News Leave a Comment

Brought to you by Investec Switzerland.

Once again, Switzerland is getting saddled with unwanted currency appreciation due to other nations’ struggles.

The franc posted its biggest gain since August against the euro as concern that the U.K. may exit the European Union dragged down the pound and with it the 19-nation shared currency. China’s decision to cut its daily yuan fixing by the most in six weeks also spurred demand for the safest assets. The franc jumped against all of its Group-of-10 counterparts, reaching the strongest level since January versus the euro.
© Albund | Dreamstime.com

© Albund | Dreamstime.com

“The euro is suffering across the board, with a confluence of recent events weighing upon it,” said Neil Jones, head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in London. “Key amongst them is the weekend EU developments. The franc serves as a viable alternative to store cash. Money is flowing from the euro zone into Switzerland.”

The franc strengthened 0.9 percent to 1.09223 per euro at 5:28 p.m. London time. It earlier strengthened to 1.09161.

Switzerland’s currency strengthened 0.9 percent to 99.11 centimes against the dollar.

The franc retaining its status as a refuge in times on crisis is a setback for Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan, who described the currency on Tuesday as being “considerably overvalued” versus the euro.

It had slid in the second half of 2015 even as China’s slowing economy, collapsing commodity prices and stock markets fueled concern that the global economy was slowing, suggesting the Swiss currency was no longer regarded as a source of refuge from turmoil.

By Lukanyo Mnyanda and Mannish Jha – Bloomberg

[jadeticl3] 21/2/2016 19:31

The share price has disappointed me since the turn of the year, and the trading statement did nothing positive although a few analysts appear to feel positive about SFR. Is it impacted by rumbles in the steel industry?

[steelwatch100] 19/2/2016 06:52

Yes owenski- Good strong trading update, improving margins & increasing turnover, in line with management expectations - whatever that means!

Their previous stated aim was for 10% ROCE, which would give pre-tax approx 14m, or 6.3% margin. This looks to be on the cautious side when half year cash generated figure reviewed.

Many others in the industry continue to report higher margins of 8 - 12+% . With SFR's dominant market position, efficiency & buying power, I would have thought these sorts of figures should be achievable by them.

Time will tell!

[waldron] 17/2/2016 12:26

Investors more downbeat but not despondent on Swiss economy
ZURICH | By Brenna Hughes Neghaiwi

Investor expectations for the Swiss economy slipped in February as uncertainty over global economies and falling prices came to the fore.

But even at -5.9 points on the Swiss ZEW index - down from -3.0 in January - investor sentiment remained a far cry from the dismal outlook posted in the financial crises of recent years.

"Most of the analysts surveyed (82 percent) continue to rate the present state of Switzerland's economy as being 'normal'," Credit Suisse, which issues the indicator in cooperation with ZEW, the German economic research institute, said on Wednesday.

The split among the remaining analysts, however, tipped the current conditions balance to -6.0 in February, up from -8.5 a month earlier. Nearly a third expected conditions to worsen.

The darkening mood comes during a sell-off in banking stocks that has seen Credit Suisse's shares hit their lowest since 1991, and amid concern over growth in emerging markets that hit UBS's shares on the day it posted full-year results.

Investors were largely upbeat about the economy's prospects in the latter half of 2015, then changed course in January as stock markets churned and oil prices plunged. During the same period, however, the Swiss franc surprisingly weakened, which should help the country's export-heavy economy.

Experts say the central bank will need to continue to defend the Swiss franc from strengthening, but investors now consider its fair value lower than it was a few months ago.

"Back in November 2015, the highest probability was assigned to an EUR/CHF fair-value range of 1.00 to 1.10," Credit Suisse said. "In February 2016, the survey respondents now see the fair value of the EUR/CHF exchange rate most probably in the 1.10 to 1.20 range."

While dim, the current outlook doesn't come close to the negative consensus of a year ago, after the Swiss National Bank abandoned its cap on the value of the franc, 1.20 francs per euro, or during the 2008 financial crisis, which economists and investors are beginning to compare to current markets.

In February 2015, nearly three out of four investors agreed that Switzerland's economy would worsen in the next six months, as gloom sank in after the currency cap was lifted in January. In October 2008, more than 90 percent of analysts believed the economy would slow.

In Germany, Switzerland's main trading partner, sentiment fell by 9.2 points in February as a strengthening euro compounded concerns hitting economies and financial markets worldwide.

(Editing by Larry King)

[owenski] 16/2/2016 08:57

That order book has increased quite dramatically since Nov.

[gargoyle2] 26/1/2016 09:36

Jefferies reaffirm buy rating, 73p target price.

[jadeticl3] 17/1/2016 19:58

Don't worry about selling now wipo1. Hold onto any you have until the end of this year and you should have a profit AND be able to sell into a rising share price.

[wipo1] 17/1/2016 12:21

I am thinking of getting back in, but was a bit of a hastle to sell a small amount on bid the last time lol

[waldron] 09/1/2016 12:53

yep

must admit i have profited from the strong franc
in more ways than one

take care alp

[alphorn] 09/1/2016 12:13

He is covering all the bases!

[itchycrack] 07/1/2016 08:53

No, its still a 'public trade', which can be undertaken over a very considerable period of time (not sure on the time limit), but it must be declared at some point. It could be one large seller transacting with one large buyer but it must go through the exchange, its not OTC.

[jadeticl3] 07/1/2016 07:48

Thanks IC. Does that mean a private swap? If so does the seller not have to make e declaration? I declare that i was not the seller!!

[itchycrack] 07/1/2016 03:07

Its called a 'Protected Trade'.

[jadeticl3] 06/1/2016 15:17

This day Invesco have told us they have bought 15.8 million shares in SFR. Has anyone noticed this kind of buying? How could they do this without my knowing??

[rhomboid] 08/12/2015 15:39

Thx for the response, I guess I'm assuming the £6m is a best guess as per this from the interims:

"The remedial works programme on the Leadenhall building continues to progress in line with planned costs and timescales. Discussions continue between all parties involved to establish where final liability for the remedial works should rest."

...what I'm trying to understand is the range of possible outcomes, ie if SFR cop for the lot how much is that?

And is there a nine elms issue on top ?, I hold a chunk of stock here but am trying hard to scope out the downside.

Cheers

[jadeticl3] 08/12/2015 08:28

Unusually volatile share prices recently. I thought the upward thrust might be significant, but it looks as though it could all collapse back to where we were a month ago. Still hoping to get back up to 74p then push on from there.

[steelwatch100] 03/12/2015 09:54

rhomboid

The 6m was announced in June with the year end results (1m spent to March, 5m to come).

This was again reiterated in the interim accounts just published 24/11/15 (note 7), if further major liabilities were expected on this project then the board is under a duty flag up in this document, which they haven't.

So the best indication from the company is that things are progressing in accordance with or better than previously stated.

[hybrasil] 02/12/2015 20:46

oh I think you ll see a very sweet onward progress

[rhomboid] 02/12/2015 20:36

hxxp://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/news/daily-news/steel-chief-warns-cheesegrater-bolt-costs-may-top-6m/8686969.article

I've bought in here but I'm struggling to get a handle on what the worst case exposure is for Leadenhall/nine elms.

Anyone got a view?

[cc2014] 02/12/2015 19:47

You won't see a chart like this one very often. I'm assuming there has to be some resistance at 74 but who knows. If it can get through things look very good to me

[jadeticl3] 02/12/2015 16:58

The day before the results the price plummeted. Can the results be that bad I ask myself. On the day of the results they bounce back. So, no panic. Then they jump and jump again. The first jump was due to steel watch, but what caused the second. Yes, owenski, we are approaching the critical point. Let's hope we can break through! Although I was pleased that the results were acceptable I was not confident that they were good enough to push to new highs.

[wipo1] 02/12/2015 16:01

Nice rise, wish I bought more lol