Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 23/11/2018 21:41

Yes HUR is a binary bet so certainly not worth putting the pub on that one! 😉
Both stuck in EOG which is nearly as frustrating as TMs elephant trap Brexit!
Have a good w/e all.

[dunderheed] 23/11/2018 19:39

Nice profits GG.
I like it when we can discuss what we have each done. I had around just under 900k just below 30p but sadly sold over half at around average 75p as was going to loan money to a friend. Am still sitting on just under 400k and like yourself may sell 100k at or around 1.85 (if im lucky enough) to buy bombed out ones as well. Can't see brent continuing to fall but those could be famous last words!!
I know you like ophr, are you a sia fan as well? Any other suggestions?
On separate note am concerned about this much talked about asset bubble which is due to pop soon?!
Both ppty and share valuations too high so what to do? Anyone any suggestions and I don't mean doom and gloom merchant, chesty!

[captainfatcat] 23/11/2018 19:29

GG sound reasoning imho

[general george] 23/11/2018 19:26

Fwiw.

I had approx 1.2m shares av 38p (as I had bought on the way up too)and another 300k in my Sipp. Av 28p.

I have sold about half my non sipp holding, and a few from my Sipp. Purely to lock in some profit, and as a risk management exercise.

I still hold 60% of them.
I sold at 125p up to 135p a few days back.

I will hold the rest post completion. Imho it could go either way. Look at RRE, it has motored post completion.

The reason to sell is to buy other bombed out oilers. I have bought limited amounts of a few.

My thinking on Serica, is I have de risked, So I can't lose. But I also expect strong performance.

I will be disappointed if we aren't up around 200p in 12 months.

Obviously the Hardys are massive in comparison, and their average is much lower. Their average is under 10p. Hence less risk to them. Sqz was always worth 40p even without BKR.

Post completion, 150p quickly if we get 100m+ in the bank.

[bountyhunter] 23/11/2018 17:23

no need to be derogatory is there DB; fortunately you are pretty much on your own on this thread in that respect

[bountyhunter] 23/11/2018 17:03

CFC if the Hardy's had topsliced and crossed a percentage boundary then they would have had to issue an RNS if the boundary crossed was 3% or above so unless they have an RNS lined up which is possible I don't think they can have done ...unless just a small amount in proportion to their holding

[captainfatcat] 23/11/2018 16:52

the abbot I read it that way *when earn out revenue to BP ends and Serica receives its full entitlement* and agree with the other posters that between now and then as we travel along that time line the share price should increase inline to reflect the earn out position and increasing revenue.


Nice end for Serica to what has been a volatile week for oilers fingers crossed the price of poo will stabilise next week and gas prices will stay high.

[dunderheed] 23/11/2018 16:46

You got a little bit excited didn't yah...

[dunderheed] 23/11/2018 16:40

Ah ok thought you were implying that now as only scan read, my apologies.
Why not wait until we are paying them nothing then as surely that will be the time for full value reflection in deal?

[dunderheed] 23/11/2018 16:25

The abbot we are currently paying 60% to bp not 40% afaiaa?

[pineapple1] 23/11/2018 15:53

Plus after all this time i'll be releived to see the bloody deal complete especially after all that uncertainty and knashing of teeth over the waiver...

[pineapple1] 23/11/2018 15:44

Yup. That's my plan too.....
Its got a virtually 100% G/T(barring disaster) huge increas in revenue in a few yrs time.
How many other companies do you know with that certainty of growth in income without even hitting and very quickly super fast developing a new discovery .
imho

[captainfatcat] 23/11/2018 15:04

fwiw FB my musing on the Hardy's is they probably have top sliced a few but their position essentially remains 99% intact. They would have a longer term exit strategy in place for them it is a long term investment (it doesn't look like they are short of cash) so expect them to let it run and sell to an institution (ftse 250) or via future take over once the Iran dust settles as it inevitably will given a bit of time or the removal or Trump.

[pineapple1] 23/11/2018 15:01

Well to some extent this has been a short term top but considering the falls across the sector SQZ equity has acted tremendously well for existing holders. Certainly not given any who want to buy at substantially lower prices any bread at all.
Are punters going to sell the news.????? I reckon punters have had more than enough oppo to sell the last few weeks and reason enough to do so with sector falls.
Depending on how much folding stuff hits the account i'd say we should see north of £1.50 on the day . That's my stab in the dark.
imho

[fardels bear] 23/11/2018 14:51

I rather think there has to be a premium when the deal finalises and the moolah hits the bank..Just wish I knew the Hardy's slicing points, if any. Hell of a potential overhang there the day they have to pay for their yacht.

[winston8643] 23/11/2018 14:18

My worry is that the boys have had a long time to look at this stock and this has been a game changer for many pi's , thanks for all the useful comments , but I suspect this could be a short term top .

[bountyhunter] 23/11/2018 14:00

this is the problem:



"Earlier this week, Donald Trump thanked Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of Opec, for pumping more and bringing down the price, but the US president said he wanted to see it lower still."

what actually happens at the forthcoming Opec meeting is yet to be seen