Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[captainfatcat] 23/11/2018 15:04

fwiw FB my musing on the Hardy's is they probably have top sliced a few but their position essentially remains 99% intact. They would have a longer term exit strategy in place for them it is a long term investment (it doesn't look like they are short of cash) so expect them to let it run and sell to an institution (ftse 250) or via future take over once the Iran dust settles as it inevitably will given a bit of time or the removal or Trump.

[pineapple1] 23/11/2018 15:01

Well to some extent this has been a short term top but considering the falls across the sector SQZ equity has acted tremendously well for existing holders. Certainly not given any who want to buy at substantially lower prices any bread at all.
Are punters going to sell the news.????? I reckon punters have had more than enough oppo to sell the last few weeks and reason enough to do so with sector falls.
Depending on how much folding stuff hits the account i'd say we should see north of £1.50 on the day . That's my stab in the dark.
imho

[fardels bear] 23/11/2018 14:51

I rather think there has to be a premium when the deal finalises and the moolah hits the bank..Just wish I knew the Hardy's slicing points, if any. Hell of a potential overhang there the day they have to pay for their yacht.

[winston8643] 23/11/2018 14:18

My worry is that the boys have had a long time to look at this stock and this has been a game changer for many pi's , thanks for all the useful comments , but I suspect this could be a short term top .

[bountyhunter] 23/11/2018 14:00

this is the problem:



"Earlier this week, Donald Trump thanked Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of Opec, for pumping more and bringing down the price, but the US president said he wanted to see it lower still."

what actually happens at the forthcoming Opec meeting is yet to be seen

[captainfatcat] 23/11/2018 13:56

Been watching the poo last few days any sign of a bounce is getting quickly crushed movement seems a little odd to me at least.

[pineapple1] 23/11/2018 13:40

UK crude oil down about 4.5% under $60 fro Feb19

[captainfatcat] 23/11/2018 13:26

almsivi its hard to say, the share price has looked quiet stable despite a %25 fall in brent. Based on this it looks like new investors certainly see value in the current share price Which in turn has allowed some substantial profit taking/top slicing.

Even if we consider BKR to be fully priced in at its current level at some point the share price must surely reflect BP's decreasing share of revenue and SQZ's steadily increasing cash position.


If current BKR production is fully reflected in the share price then success with Rhum 3 intervention will be a game changer.

[bountyhunter] 23/11/2018 13:09

can't argue with that, a good summary, roll on completion :)

[spandy83] 23/11/2018 13:02

I'd be really surprised if this was our new normal post BKR completion. I'm expecting £100m cash in the bank, and another £100-120m positive cash flow in 2019, rising to £140m in 2020. As you say that's without the extra stuff... So a valuation of £340m doesn't come close to reflecting that value; as with £100m cash, it's only £240m for our assets... a P/E of around 2; for established mature production in the U.K. is very low. I'd like to see a P/E of 5 or higher which should mean a £600m (£2+) valuation some time in 2019. This would be supported by a maiden dividend; as it's dividends that tend to start to see P/E valuations take hold (as shareholder are rewarded in line with earnings).

[bountyhunter] 23/11/2018 12:41

almsivi, my view is that the share price will rise quite nicely on confirmation of BKR completion expected now in just a week's time especially when the significant back payment payable to SQZ is announced, however I would expect further volatility in relation to oil and gas prices (I realise our production is mainly gas of course) and general market volatility

[almsivi] 23/11/2018 12:32

Wondering if any posters here believe that Serica is fully priced in at the current SP? Ignoring Rowallan, Columbus etc - based purely on BKR completion.

I don't believe it has but then it has a tendency to become a matter of faith when you pit one opinion against another.

I'm not asking in order to shout anyone down, genuinely interested to hear from anyone who thinks we are and the rationale for it :-)

[fardels bear] 23/11/2018 12:28

Indecision time...

[autographs] 23/11/2018 07:41

That question mark was meant to be a smiley emoji. Cheers Abbot.

[autographs] 23/11/2018 07:36

Hey Abbot. I only sold and returned as I was panicking at the drop. ?

[autographs] 22/11/2018 22:21

I sold all of my holdings. 3000 @135. Bought back in with some more cash. Now have 4000. Not a lot. I have 5-10k spare. Should I buy more?

[bountyhunter] 22/11/2018 17:28

Cheers steel.

Yes Dh EOG could still payoff, if that ever happens it would warrant a big pizza celebration!

Off for an anniversary meal shortly, apparently Wetherspoon's doesn't cut it so have splashed out (a bit) for a 3 course meal at a 5 * hotel, it is 50% off today though ;-)

[smokieuk] 22/11/2018 12:46

The tool I use has also reported that this morning but says it was at 16:23 yesterday

[careful now] 22/11/2018 12:39

A 125000 share buy at 130p just now. Someone confident.

[bountyhunter] 22/11/2018 10:45

To be honest I can't think of any of my holdings that I'm happier with right now than SQZ. With hindsight I should have ditched many of the rest a couple of months ago but will hold on now for the Santa rally (which of course isn't guaranteed) but I'd give that a greater than 50% chance if we can get to December without too much more general market damage and the OPEC meeting results in a production cut which may be limited of course given the Trump factor).

[dunderheed] 22/11/2018 10:38

Let's just hope it lives up to not expectations.
To tell u the truth if not I may top up further?