Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[farmscan] 29/9/2018 15:54

Whatever happens on Monday it starts the 31 day countdown to when all will become clear!

[bountyhunter] 29/9/2018 13:12

hadn't thought of that possibility;
'down for maintenance' on Monday would be a bit of a cop out!

[dunderheed] 29/9/2018 12:54

Imho we wouldd already know because it would be leaked at the reception terminal. In gym so can anyone remind when the maintain. down time schedules were?

[bountyhunter] 29/9/2018 12:37

Erskine back online news will only help level things if the BKR deal is to go ahead regardless of any temporary issues imo.
Anyway no point speculating further as we will have a much better idea on Monday based on whether Rhum is still online or not.

[farmscan] 29/9/2018 12:31

Yes I am also confident, and have not sold one share (ever!), but I don't think there is a plan B having read the interim report.

[farmscan] 29/9/2018 12:28

Yes I see what you are saying, but if Rhum was suspended, I'm not sure Erskine news would help much in the short term.

[bountyhunter] 29/9/2018 12:19

What I mean is they have had some control over the final commissioning timetable for Erskine as opposed to holding back news having completed final commissioning which I'm not suggesting would be the case.
Re certainty on the waiver if they have devised a plan B then it may not be so critical to have it by Monday but we will soon find out by whether Rhum production is ongoing or not on Monday. I'm holding as I'm confident that the deal will be completed regardless to the benefit of SQZ

[farmscan] 29/9/2018 12:12

I don't believe they would hold back on Erskine as it involves a number of different parties to finish off and they cannot hold back news. the interim report states that "the restart of production is just pending final commissioning activities" so it should be any day now, but that will be coincidental in my view. I still can't believe they would have got this far without some certainty that they will get they waiver, after all the time and money they have spent. But maybe that's just me with my head in the sand!

[bountyhunter] 29/9/2018 11:57

Yes FS the current waiver expires tomorrow so if Rhum production continues on Monday that will be a very positive sign indeed. If not they will be obligated to RNS it immediately at 7am. Crunch time has arrived. If Rhum production is to be interrupted they may have been holding back Erskine to put out some accompanying good news on resumption of production there at the same time?

[farmscan] 29/9/2018 11:46

I would hope that we would have news of the new waiver fairly soon, as the current waiver expires tomorrow. I can see why there has been a sell off this week after the recent rise, which was presumably in anticipation of waiver news. The management do seem confident that it will complete, as the have spent a lot of the cash reserve in preparation (headquarters, recruitment etc.). However, despite the discussion of the waiver not being essential, they have reiterated that completion is still dependent on a renewal of the waiver being granted. So whilst there may be ways round it, as far as I can tell we've got to have that waiver!

[bountyhunter] 29/9/2018 11:42

My back aches just lying on the sofa FB! Mind you I did do a 12 mile walk on Wed (between Wetherspoon pubs lol)!

[fardels bear] 29/9/2018 11:35

Try sailing, Bh... I'm always lying prostrate in the bottom of the boat like a stranded fish. I do not have a muscle that doesn't ache the whole of the next week.On the bright side.... No, let's not tempt fate.

[bountyhunter] 29/9/2018 10:30

IOG could certainly be a possible acquisition as we've discussed before and it looks unlikely that SQZ is going to stop with BK(R).
Glad we all seem to agree that BK(R) looks likely to complete now regardless - the BP article seems to support that whatever the political situation on Nov 1 although I still believe that one of the two unpublished minor waivers is most likely ours.
DH I really need to lead a more healthy lifestyle for the same reason having just given a remote lesson on how to use a washing machine! That's when they talk to you - when they need something lol!

[fardels bear] 29/9/2018 10:13

Then you wait for wee Donald to change his mind and open up again..

[fardels bear] 29/9/2018 10:12

You complete, take the money, shut in, use the huge amount of money you've been given to buy another asset.Liberator and liberator West look reasonable... Sure there are many more... IOG?

[dunderheed] 29/9/2018 10:11

GG fully agree with what you say buddy re US bullying by the way.

They certainly made us pay post world war 2 lol and a cynic may say they only really are motivated in their actions by 'what's in it for them?' regardless of who is in power. (Even with regard to UK/EU support).
Right that's bloody it - orf to the gym!

[dunderheed] 29/9/2018 10:08

GG, I think the super powers will be China, USA (but hopefully reducing over time purely for economic reasons) and India.

Russia is in a bloody worse state than the US and tbh punches way way above its weight in the world - if it wasn't nuclear armed and 'volatile' no one would pay much attention to it.
To put into perspective, I believe their economy is the size of Spain's/Aus and is essentially resource based (with oil significantly losing its value over the next 30 years)?

Also if the US do default quickly and soon - I am hoping they don't of course and the debt will just be inflated away or reduced by gradual (inevitable) weakness of the USD - then its really time to talk about world war 3 and all bets are off lol!!

All imho of course and apologies for o/t - just trying to avoid going to the gym lol!!

[dunderheed] 29/9/2018 09:53

FB me as well lol but, I'm thinking of my kid.
Not that she is talking to me at the moment lol!!

bh, I'm assuming it's specifically 'valve' related - does anyone actually know the equipment that is affected?
The problem is that if you lose control of the well there are massive consequences and other (risk based) insurance issues to be considered I would imagine, hence, a plan B must be in place to continue production.

Who knows?
This could be that BP take 'responsibility' for this scenario (unlikely because they would still like to be operator if they were to do so?) or, continue production and close the wells if (very unlikely) a problem arises then replace systems but, who would 'maintain' these in the meantime, as this would need to be done for safety and insurance purposes as it would be catastrophic if they couldn't close off wells with BOP's etc.?
The BP information regarding not needing a waiver to continue production operations was interesting and I've always thought this to be the case in line with almsvisi but am interested in how they would go about this?

So to end long rambling message (sorry lol) I haven't a clue but am certainly erring on a solution being in place, as am an optimist by nature and have recently bought another 60k or so and may buy more in the future weeks.

[bountyhunter] 29/9/2018 09:32

Looking at a worse case scenario even if a waiver had not been issued by Nov 1 wouldn't the best option be for the deal to be completed anyway now to get the large payment due for production since Jan 1 and either continue production regardless continuing to apply pressure on the US or suspend temporarily pending an agreement solely re the wellhead maintenance if impossible to source elsewhere? Just trying to think out of the box and consider all scenarios!

[fardels bear] 29/9/2018 09:29

Not for me, Dh. I expect to be dead long before fifty years have elapsed.

[dunderheed] 29/9/2018 09:06

This was my concern first highlighted at the time of publication of these sanctions.
Once the strength of the USD is chipped into - I think it will start a domino effect and speed up the (inevitable) decline of the currency with potentially massive world wide consequences. Especially if not in a slower controlled manner than that which would have occurred with the inevitable transfer of wealth from the west to the east over the next fifty years.
All a bit dramatic I know but, very interesting times ahead of 'us'!!

[circles of stone] 28/9/2018 20:14

Woodford also has a chunk in Crest Nicholson and its been tanking too. Maybe he should concentrate on short selling. ?