Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fardels bear] 12/9/2018 09:51

We've all noticed how well it has held up recently. It wouldn't have taken much more demand to have caused a rise. And conversely, a lack of sellers and the same level of demand would drive the price up even on low volume..

Or, it could be something else.

[sawney] 12/9/2018 09:35

...or traders back from their hols...having a punt on expected news...?

[dunderheed] 12/9/2018 09:21

Yes almsivi, relatively small volumes traded, good point (and that is not said in a de-ramping way lol!!).
Really exciting times ahead!

[almsivi] 12/9/2018 09:20

Interesting - we've been at this price point many times since January so any profit takers should have been shaken loose by now. It could be day-trading off the news that US inventories took a big draw?

[dunderheed] 12/9/2018 09:18

Probably good operational completion news re Erskine 'leaked out' i.e. maybe a day or two earlier than originally expected next week?
Got to admit wish it wasn't as really want to buy another 300k of these but the funds are coming from another oiler - sneaking higher and greed currently keeping me there lol!

[general george] 12/9/2018 09:12

Well the last vessel left. If tie in complete. A week before start up?

[sawney] 12/9/2018 09:01

Surely Erskine can't be that far ahead of schedule...???

[bountyhunter] 12/9/2018 09:00

here we go!
8~)

[general george] 12/9/2018 08:54

Someone knows something.
Waiver in the post?
Or Erskine?

[blueball] 12/9/2018 08:49

Stay long 100p soon.

[spandy83] 12/9/2018 08:27

Nice... any news out there I've missed?

[gersemi] 12/9/2018 08:21

summut's up

[bountyhunter] 11/9/2018 21:34

Ah yes, forgot that is Total while focusing on the BKR deal and licence/waiver.

[general george] 11/9/2018 21:08

Total for BK transaction...

[froop] 11/9/2018 20:57

Link to thread to twittrr back last november re poss cashfloes etc. No idea if accurate. I know there's the whole counting chickens thing but the completion of this deal is the reason I'm invested so pretty integral....https://twitter.com/rickyjordan2010/status/933625230752395264

[fardels bear] 11/9/2018 19:39

I can tell them there's not a lot to do in Invergordon..

[steelwatch] 11/9/2018 19:19

Seven Eagle has departed Lomond for Invergordon. Whether or not the job is finished or requires another visit remains to be seen.

[robo175] 11/9/2018 19:07

Bit off topic but any of you guys that have worked or are still working in the oil industry know where online I can find an archive of old films, I'm specifically looking for how plastics are made, I think it's either a Shell or BP film probably produced in the 60s or 50s, is anyone aware of any such archives, I checked out youtube and BP and Shell but can't find it.

[general george] 11/9/2018 17:27

Should the deal go through, SQZ will get about $100m.
By year end a quarter of Erskine production as well.

IF it does complete, then based on that SQZ should be about £1.50 in quick time.

IF it doesn't then, I think downside would be to about 30p.

With all the knowns, ie both committed to the deal, as are Total, and UK law specifically to create a work around. I think it is a good risk/reward.

There has been consistent and someone heavy buying, which is reassuring.
whether it bodes well or not, is TBC.

[robo175] 11/9/2018 17:01

Yes it's difficult not to get ahead of yourself and think it's all a formality but there is no harm trying to work out what the Co may be worth going forward, you just hope your not tempting fate.

[captainfatcat] 11/9/2018 15:55

almsivi that's dangerous thinking but ultimately why many of us are here.....

I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch

But its very hard not to..

8-)

[almsivi] 11/9/2018 15:41

With Fardels "chickens" caveat - I did the following back-of-a-fag-packet numbers assuming 70% asset uptime on all Sericas potential assets and a forecast of 3 years production revenue based on the current year and current energy prices

End of:

2018 forecast Market Cap = £460m or £1.74 a share

2019 forecast Market Cap = £550m or £2.09 a share

2020 forecast Market Cap = £630m or £2.41 a share

2021 BKR full ownership of production: £1bn market cap or £3.69 a share

The above predicated on the years revenue being consistent for 3 years - if you factor in the stepped increase thats built into the deal - it looks more like £2.73 a share from 2019.

By no means an economic soothsayer so the above could be completely wrong in being optimistic or pessimistic - just using the information we have at hand.