Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[steelwatch] 08/5/2018 20:26

nigelpm - I'm toying with the idea of sanctions myself. We'll see :)

[nigelpm] 08/5/2018 20:26

Absolutely Bounty - Trump plays the same game with everyone and yet no-one seems to get it.

Pull out, negotiate, wind everyone up and then do a deal.

My agenda here is the same as every other retail investor - to make as much money as possible!

[dunderheed] 08/5/2018 20:25

BH yes not really good position to take?
I think every party was aware this was a short to medium term solution and was going to be significantly revisited come 2025?
C'est vie and there's f all we can do tonight lol!!
Best of luck all.

[dunderheed] 08/5/2018 20:21

Exactly how long can the metro dollar survive?
I know it p's off Russia and China who have been trying to get the renminbi as purchase currency for oil for a long time!

[robo175] 08/5/2018 20:20

nigelpm must be short or lower entry point, what's your agenda?

[bountyhunter] 08/5/2018 20:19

Lol DH, more important things going on right now. Agree with your points. European leaders I think are not going to be Trump's puppets on this re sanctions so an Escrow account may be the worse case scenario and BP should help rearrange this as provided previously if necessary.

In my view Trump is trying the same approach with Iran that he used with North Korea.

[chestnuts] 08/5/2018 20:18

The share price could also rise on the fact that the USA is going it alone so relief that Europe and UK have not joined in, Also Oil will probably stay around here because although USA as sanction on the rest of the world as not so Iran can sell its oil to China who will buy every barrel but not in Usa dollars

[dunderheed] 08/5/2018 20:15

BH you MF lol.
I didn't even notice this much coveted number coming up!!
All my own fault!!

[someuwin] 08/5/2018 20:15

Andrew Neil Verified account @afneil 24m minutes ago

"Trump’s sanctions against Iran won’t just hit an already shaky economy. They will likely hit any European company doing business with Iran."

[bountyhunter] 08/5/2018 20:12

sorry DH took the 7000th post 😉

[dunderheed] 08/5/2018 20:11

6995 Absolutely but as far as I am aware the risks are the following:

1. American service companies not bring able to provide services. Whilst not fully realised ar the moment, I'm sure BP will be working quickly to reduce reliance on these as soon as possible and
2. USD dollars not bring cleared through NY. I assume we would be okay with this because we could get exemptions to keep IOC dollars in escrow account?
3. At the end of the day this field supplies easily 5% UK gas and whilst not strategic I think is large enough to get exemptions for UK support to US for other 'things'.
I think the share price may get whacked in the morning but not to the 6's and probably not for too long. May settle late 7's?
Once again all imho and DYOR!!

[nigelpm] 08/5/2018 20:07

Indeed Bounty - the risk is the EU decides to go along with the US - not likely I'd say either but share prices aren't rational at the best of times.

[nigelpm] 08/5/2018 20:05

Worth going back to the admissions document:



As a result of US primary sanctions against Iran the operations of the Rhum gas field could be adversely
affected
The Rhum gas field is owned as to 50% by BP and as to 50% by Iranian Oil Company (UK)
Limited, an ultimate subsidiary of National Iranian Oil Company (‘‘NIOC’’). Both the Iranian
economy and NIOC in particular have been targeted by international sanctions in recent years. In
January 2016, EU sanctions were largely lifted against Iran and NIOC, but US primary sanctions
remain in force which amount to a comprehensive embargo on US persons having dealings with Iran.
As a result of US primary sanctions, BP has continued to seek a licence from US authorities to
provide dispensation for a small number of US contractors to provide services to the Rhum gas field
from time to time and also to enable BP to potentially bring in US contractors in the case of
emergency. BP’s licence was renewed on 29 September 2017 and continues in force until 30 September
2018. Following Completion, Serica UK may still need to rely on a small number of US contractors
to operate the Rhum field, although it may, over time, seek to reduce or eliminate their use
completely. Between the date of signing the Acquisition Agreement and Completion, Serica UK will,
whilst US sanctions remain in force, seek to obtain a licence from OFAC. The Acquisition
Agreement is conditional upon such a licence being granted to Serica UK by OFAC. The Acquisition
Agreement also contains provisions entitling Serica UK or BP to terminate it prior to Completion in
the event that there is a cessation of production of the Rhum gas field owing to sanctions.
Further, before Completion there could be circumstances where Iranian related sanctions are
detrimental to the operation of the Rhum gas field but which do not give rise to a cessation of
production. In this event, Serica UK would not be entitled to terminate the Acquisition Agreement
but the operations and performance of the Rhum gas field could nevertheless be materially affected.
Furthermore, following Completion, OFAC could withdraw the grant of or not renew any licence
provided to Serica UK and/or the US or EU sanctions regime against Iran could be amended or
enhanced, which may make it more difficult or impossible for Serica UK to continue to operate the
Rhum gas field. Should Serica UK, following Completion, cease to be able to operate the Rhum gas
field, as a result of sanctions this would have a material adverse effect on the Enlarged Group’s
results of operations, financial condition and prospects

[bountyhunter] 08/5/2018 20:05

Iran has since said they will carry on with the deal with the rest of the world so I don't see that the Europeans will go along with Trump although SQZ may have to exclude US expertise as already commented and they already know.

[chestnuts] 08/5/2018 20:04

NIGEL

you are a To++++ Its only the USA who have with drawn from the deal, UK as not so not really effected and seen BP as a Licence from USA and doesnt run out till Sept , So i dont see a problem its only people like you who have no idea about SQZ who come onto threads pretending to know things but the truth is you know F All.

[nigelpm] 08/5/2018 20:00

The distinction was in Trump's wording "economic sanctions of the highest order"

[nigelpm] 08/5/2018 19:59

Definitely - always am.

[bountyhunter] 08/5/2018 19:59

That's what I was thinking considering this was 'nothing to do with SQZ' earlier!

[fardels bear] 08/5/2018 19:55

Looking for another entry are we?

[nigelpm] 08/5/2018 19:53

Doubt SQZ management can say anything yet - hard to evaluate the impact - certainly explains why BP wanted to get out of it. Could open in the 6's tomorrow.

[fardels bear] 08/5/2018 19:50

Brent at $75.04 right now. Not quit at day's high.

[nigelpm] 08/5/2018 19:38

SQZ likely to get a kicking tomorrow one would think.

[fardels bear] 08/5/2018 19:37

Well you could tell by Macron's expression as he came out of that meeting with Trump a couple of weeks ago that it wasn't all going to be doom and gloom.