Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mrscruff] 14/3/2024 17:32

Investors need to accept the loony tax is forever and move on. All negative sentiment eventually gets factored into a share price and then the share price can move forward as the revenue after tax is still very strong.

We also need to move on from the high priced Tailwind acquisition that is now at today SQZ share price more than factored in!

A better Chief Executive Officer will be announced at any point would help to change sentiment and drive us forward. I can see any new CEO changing the direction of SQZ and the share price react positively.

This combined with the gas price bottoming should change sentiment and I look forward to 2024 where this looks like a recovery play. As investors we need to think 3+ months ahead.

[slicethepie] 12/3/2024 17:58

That would require politicians to have a brain cell! Both parties are clueless wrt energy, one cold winter and we will be importing gas. Exploration in the North Sea is a long term game and stopping exploration is crazy. The believe that we can rely on wind and solar is cloud cuckoo land.

[orchestralis] 08/3/2024 11:37

Epl should be shelved now that oil prices have come down. To think it is in place until 2028.

[farmscan] 08/3/2024 10:40

Another 20k shares for David Latin as well, a good signal I would say.

[oilinvestoral] 07/3/2024 10:19

Stemis we've established that! Your figures are based on reserves that not only weren't certified when we negotiated the deal, but the ICP who assessed those reserves wasn't even commissioned! Our figures were based on what the company actually had certified at the time (reserves they could take to the bank)! Also your figures turn a blind eye to decommissioning liabilities taken on that would affect the EV . But let's not let the smaller matter of millions of decommissioning liabilities get in our way of proving that the deal was cheap ! Agree to disagree....

[mickinvest] 07/3/2024 09:40

Regarding the HBR results, they still reduced debt by $800m, paid a $200m dividend and cancelled shares of around $250m in 2023 and invested $1B in exploration including countries where they'll get the kick back in lower taxes once they have production, not bad for a company valued at £2B. That says a lot more about the health of the company than reading the headline after-tax and tax rate.

[stemis] 07/3/2024 09:40

But we bought it for oil and that's what we found...

As to whether other posters are wrong, it depends what they are talking about. I posted the figures that I used to calculate price per 2p and they all come from published and verified information.

[oilinvestoral] 07/3/2024 09:28

Perpetual value is a highly respected guy on twitter. I agree with him! https://x.com/perpetualvalue/status/1749134869135761600?s=46&t=ySHTOHElP3t1B4beGtacxwIs he also wrong? Is Raper capital also wrong ? Are other posters on here also wrong? The deranged pugnacious one tried to treat him like he treats us on here ! Luckily PV , gave him a wide berth and treated him with the contempt and apathy he deserves! Imagine sifting through 7 week old Twitter threads looking for argument's !!!! #pugnacious!

[oilinvestoral] 07/3/2024 09:17

We bought a piece of land in deepest darkest Byker but paid Darras Hall prices (wink emoji)! Now once we start digging for the foundation if we find that the seller who duped us into this overpriced POS land, has accidentally left a diamond ring & a gold bracelet buried there. It doesn't make us smart negotiators! It just means we got lucky ! Comprehende?

[pineapple1] 07/3/2024 09:05

Profit before tax of $0.6 billion (2022: $2.5 billion); profit after tax of $32 million (2022: $8 million) reflecting an effective tax rate of 95% (2022: 100%)

From HBR results.

Perhaps the next government will attempt to get the remaining 5%.
At least HBR are attempting to diversify away from the NS.
Nobody should turn up to NS licensing rounds but as they continue to do so the message does not sink in with the crooks in Parliment. Well it probably does but they don't care at the moment as they are making lots of cash from the green lobby.
imho

[nigelpm] 07/3/2024 08:54

In my 2 decades doing this, I have never seen an acquisition valued at how much the 2P bbls are worth months or years after the agreement/ announcement…

Your mistake here is simple - timing of the updated reserves position being very shortly after the announcement of the deal but well before the acquisition date.

You've been shown to be fundamentally wrong but like most BB posters you won't accept your error.

[stemis] 07/3/2024 08:50

Interesting analogy. Even where I live, in the NE, the price of land (with planning permission to build) varies massively from poor areas like Byker to areas like Darras Hall. That's because of the ability to add value to land (i.e. build a house and sell it) it much higher in Darras Hall than Byker. So you might look at land sales in Darras Hall and say, wow totally overpriced, I've never seen land sell for this much. But in the end the land purchase ends up more profitable than land bought in Byker.

[nigelpm] 07/3/2024 08:35

Yup - but perhaps more importantly the relevant reserves number is at the date of the acquisition which was March 2023 - best available information at that point was the 55.5m as at the end of 31 Dec 2022. It's just simple facts.

[stemis] 07/3/2024 08:31

oilinvestorAl,

Like I said, if you wait until 2026, you can probably make you Calc closer to $5/bbl!

If that proves to be the case then it would only confirm what I said previously, that it's not just about the 2p at the time of acquisition that matters but the prospectivity of the licenses and their capacity to deliver further increases (as seems to be the case).

[nigelpm] 07/3/2024 08:10

I am delighted that Serica has maintained its record of more than replacing reserves since 2018. We ended 2023 with 2P reserves up 10 million boe, testament to the hard work of our staff and the underlying quality of our asset portfolio.

------------------

Quite an achievement.

[oilinvestoral] 07/3/2024 07:43

Nice increase in the reserve out. Gannet is good but disappointing Bittern numbers. I'm sure our pugnacious accountant has his trusted abacus out to determine how he can now use these new numbers to kid us that Tailwind was a bargain! Top tip: using data after the acquisition was agreed ain't how oil 2P reserves $/ bbl are calculated!

[nigelpm] 07/3/2024 07:14

2P reserves now at 140m boe.. nice uplift.

[oilinvestoral] 06/3/2024 21:52

Stemis : "I didn't say in any of my posts in this discussion whether this was a good or bad acquisition. That's a matter for opinion. But let's at least use the right numbers. No way did SQZ pay ?20/boe"------------Dear Stemis First of all pologies for the late response I was busy dealing with multiple oil & gas projects over the past few days. So, ADVFN had to take a back seat!While true you didn't mention in the very RECENT posts that it was a "good acquisition". It would be more than disingenuous to pretend that you haven't been one of the biggest advocates of the ill fated Tailwind acquisition on this BB! Regarding valuation: it's easy to choose any future date & change the denomator in order to kid yourself & reduce the per bbl figure as you've clearly demonstrated. Like I said, if you wait until 2026, you can probably make you Calc closer to $5/bbl! Unfortunately, the acquisition was negotiated & agreed in 2022. Choosing a random 2P Reserve date in 2023, 24 or 26 to fudge the dollars per 2P bbl figure ain't it my friend!I'm not the only one who based on the announcement numbers and the certified reserves at the time calculates around $20/bbl for 2P!Raper Capital who are run by a very experienced investor and extremely wealthy individual have stated the following regarding the acquisition: I quote : "The total consideration for the Proposed Combination represents a multiple of ~$20/barrel of 2P reserves"! I would tend to agree with a calculation performed by a revered investor such as Jeremy rather than an unemployed Pugnacious accountant called NigelPM! Raper Capital also state:"this transaction immediately and irrevocably destroys at least 300mm GBP of extant shareholder value."! Well would you Adam & Eve it!!! The market cap has fallen by more than £300 million since he wrote this!!!! It's as if he can almost tell the future! May be he has a crystal ball ? Guffaw!!! Or may be he is just a prudent, articulate, experienced, intelligent investor who actually knows what he is doing ?! Since you like analogies here is a good one from Jeremy : "It is as if management, in possession of a pan and desiring an omelet, proceeded to exchange a Rolex for a carton of eggs, only to then claim, 'Well, we did need the eggs.'"! I'm sure even if this acquisition ends up bringing serica down, you wouldn't have a bad word said about it! So I'm going to save my myself sometime and decline to engage on this topic in future ... no offence....Best Regards Al

[nigelpm] 06/3/2024 21:34

Any thoughts on your $20/bbl for tailwind which has been completely obliterated? Didn't think so.