Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[pretax2] 16/4/2024 13:23

Oil investor
That’s the spirit 😀
Your 1st response, not the 2nd.

[oilinvestoral] 16/4/2024 13:18

There's literally been examples in the London market where directors bought days before disaster .... I see Mitch as counter indicator! At least this time he is not handing the keys to the administrators (unlike his last gig)He literally didn't buy a single share as the shares went up more than 40 fold. His judgement leaves much to be desired

[mickinvest] 16/4/2024 12:40

Quick scribble, few positives and negatives, it really needs the tax relief on exploration to stay at the current rate and also for some of Tailwinds tax losses to kick in.

At interim results in September, the price was around £2.60 and we had a low around £1.70 in between.

At £2.02, market cap around £800m.

Net cash dropped from around £230m end of June to £81m at year end after tax and dividend payments of around £230m which suggests the low 2nd half production which already had oil hedges of $61 wasn't generating a lot of profit.

The dividend was 14p and 9p for a total of 23p.

Output 49,350 bopd 1st half 2023

If it's 40k bopd for year then 2nd half must be around 30k bopd?

Current output around 45k bopd

Average realised gas price of 96 pence per therm (1H 2022: 136 pence per therm) and realised average oil price of US$64 per barrel (1H 2022: US$108 per barrel).

Hedging

Oil - fixed pricing under oil sales agreements (equivalent to oil price swaps): for the 2H 2023 period approximately 11,000 barrels per day at an average price of US$61 per barrel, for the 1H 2024 period approximately 5,000 barrels per day at an average price of US$70 per barrel, and for the 2H 2024 period approximately 2,700 barrels per day at an average price of US$80 per barrel.


UKA ETS - fixed price swaps for UKA ETS products for 2023 consisting of 66,000 MT at £77.12/MT for 2023 and 231,000 MT at £79.39/MT for 2024

[bountyhunter] 16/4/2024 11:58

Normally I'm a bit of a sceptic here (since the Tailwind involvement) however regarding results and the dividend I have to say that if there was anything particularly negative about to be released I don't think that:

1. Mitch Flegg would have bought shares on 7th Feb'24 for UK£142,388 as well as other directors buying shares since the start of the year. No sales.


2. The share price would have been edging upwards in the run up towards results.

So I'm reasonably optimistic of no nasty surprises at this point.

[oilinvestoral] 16/4/2024 11:44

You're right! I'm probably worried about nothing I'm sure the dividend and NAV will both be increased. I've always found blind optimism to be lucrative investment strategy. Fingers & toes crossed.

[pretax2] 16/4/2024 11:26

Oilinvestor,
Stop wetting your pants over a nothing burger.
Let the company do their job then hopefully we can all walk away with a huge dividend.

[oilinvestoral] 16/4/2024 10:48

You're 100% correct hunter154 and therein lies the problem....What will the auditors find under the private equity bonnet? It's a rhetorical question BTW....I'm sure it's gonna be fine though ... nothing to worry about!

[hunter154] 16/4/2024 10:27

Correct me if I am wrong, but this yearend is the first since the big merger/ acquisition? Auditors are probably taking their merry time signing off on the reporting.

[nigelpm] 16/4/2024 10:02

How is it delayed?

Companies aren't under an obligation to present results by mid or even late April for Year ended 31/12/2023.

[oilinvestoral] 16/4/2024 09:58

I've looked back at the last 10 years and if the company don't issue the full year results by Tuesday , it'll be the most delayed results in the last decade of the company's history.....I'm sure it's going to be fine though ... nothing to worry about. Fleggy who confirmed to Stahel that he didn't want to quit apparently left to pursue a Warcraft hobby FT.Ostriches gonna ostrich

[nigelpm] 16/4/2024 09:07

There appears to be a delay the date keeps changing on Stockopedia they should have been released last week. So something is up probably trying to put lipstick on a pig

No.

Stockopedia and other sources simply make an estimate. We'll get an RNS when results are due.

[creditcrunchies] 16/4/2024 07:07

There appears to be a delay the date keeps changing on Stockopedia they should have been released last week. So something is up probably trying to put lipstick on a pig

[weemonkey] 15/4/2024 14:14

The UK needs this company. In the end SQZ and its shareholders will get their reward.

[croasdalelfc] 14/4/2024 11:08

I doubt they will RNS any drill news - except as part of a general market update or results .Drilling is due to be continuous for 12/15 months though SQZ working interest varies a far bit in each drill.

[farmscan] 11/4/2024 09:38

Bittern B1z Sidetrack spud news soon then. Maybe early next week with date for results?

[bountyhunter] 11/4/2024 07:32

It's interesting that Mitch Flegg bought shares on 7th Feb'24 for UK£142,388
Other directors have also bought shares since the start of the year. I'm now thinking that there's a reasonable chance that the dividend will be maintained.

[ashkv] 11/4/2024 07:28

Still no notice on FY Results... Sloppy work Flegg....

[nigelpm] 10/4/2024 10:11

I agree - huge upside here if all goes well.

[farmscan] 10/4/2024 09:25

Lots of news to come for the rest of the year from here on in. COSL Innovator due to arrive at Bittern later today and the LWIVs going on at Bruce at the moment. Drilling rig Ocean Patriot is on station in the Bruce area at the moment, but I can't see what it is doing, I'm assuming that it is for the re instatement of Keith, but that's only a guess.

[bountyhunter] 10/4/2024 09:11

Directors buying this year with no sales recorded might suggest that the dividend could be maintained...

[bountyhunter] 09/4/2024 21:53

Two equal buys at 196p/share for over a million quid each recorded after the close. Maybe the dividend will be maintained at 14p. Trades 1049 and 1050. Or possibly some kind of b&b transaction e.g. moving shares to a spouse.

[nigelpm] 09/4/2024 12:40

Yes - I don't necessarily agree with him though having thought it through further and other conversations I've had since.

[coffeecanportfolio] 09/4/2024 12:21

Nigel didn't you post the Alexander Stahel tweet yourself ?

[coffeecanportfolio] 09/4/2024 12:20

I think he was forced out. This private equity guy met him many times! https://x.com/burggrabenh/status/1754194713551188130?s=46&t=ySHTOHElP3t1B4beGtacxw