Seraphim Space Investment Share Discussion Threads

[ec2] 01/2/2022 12:53

Been some big volume in these this morning, but fully valued for me in this market so I've sold out at 111.25.

[davidro77] 01/2/2022 12:22

Wow - 10% up in a day, surely that's unheard of for a trust? Anyone know what's behind this aside from a rally in underlying assets

[the millipede] 28/1/2022 22:50

Major Spire shareholder sells out on 31 December and reports today.

Anyone know if that is normal for the USA?

If this were a British company people would go bananas.

[the millipede] 25/1/2022 10:44

That sort of NAV would be good EC2 and would make the current share price relatively attractive IMO.

The listed holdings are marked to market but not clear on which date. Their prices (Spire, ArQit and AST) have been all over the place since end September, but mostly down, sadly.

[ec2] 25/1/2022 10:20

I'm seeing 28/2/22 as a provisional date. BTW, I am crudely estimating current NAV at somewhere between 96p and 101p. That's purely based on movements in the NASDAQ less uninvested cash, and not the actual underlyings. NASDAQ only down 4.5% since 30th Sept but greater percentage amount when subsequent later investments made.

[the millipede] 25/1/2022 09:52

Any idea when an updated NAV will be released?

[ec2] 25/1/2022 08:21

Thanks for your speedy validation. Our thoughts are the same around the NAV impact.

[jonwig] 25/1/2022 06:55

I got the same figure. I thought it would be higher, which would make for a more secure valuation. So now much more of the nav is "at risk".

[ec2] 24/1/2022 21:34

Just doing some back of the envelope calculations on how much of the NAV is still in cash. I make it around GBP40m or 29%. I started with the end Q1 stated figure of GBP124m and deducted subsequent investments. I wonder if anyone can agree or makes it something else? Should really have done it before I traded today but was too keen to push the button. Many thanks in advance.

[davidro77] 24/1/2022 16:59

Fear is now driving this. Feels like outright panic at some points today, some truly spectacular falls out there. We've lost like a year of gains in a few days. And yet the indices are still riding high from a longer term view.....

[jonwig] 24/1/2022 15:38

The rout is pretty comprehensive. Index-linked gilts are sharply higher, and a few infrastructure funds are steady. Apart from that, I wouldn't be a buyer of anything until I knew what was driving this.

[davidro77] 24/1/2022 13:24

Too hasty IMO. Markets are getting ugly this could fall a lot further. Didn't expect it to go under IPO so quickly I wish I had more courage of my convictions and gone short rather than just sell LOL

[ec2] 24/1/2022 08:49

Taken a bit of a punt and gone back in today at 97.29 having sold out couple of months ago. See my post 110. These have been suffering from the double downside drag of the general move out of growth plus the high expectations premium re-rating.

[the millipede] 21/1/2022 13:48

News this morning.

[jonwig] 20/1/2022 15:16

Thanks - I have a USD account with ii so no FOREX risk on dealing. Also my W8-BEN is up to date. However, I rarely deal in US securities, as it's too much hassle to get the ongoing information and gossip.

[the millipede] 20/1/2022 14:38

It was for me Jonwig. There is a tax form that you need to fill in (basically a few questions about potential liability to US tax). If you are a US citizen there might be problems. Anyway the questions popped up on the screen the first time I bought shares.

You obviously get whatever exchange rate your broker offers, which is just something to bear in mind, and I think there was an extra £50 trading fee with HL.

There is also some quirk about the ownership structure that I can’t quite recall and certainly couldn’t explain, but it is irrelevant to the trading experience. To do with enabling crest settlement of US stocks.

[jonwig] 20/1/2022 10:19

So it could be a technical SPAC rules issue. ("Ethan" seems to be fully clued-up, as he points out, the SPAC technicalities can affect price action.)

Milli - my broker, ii can deal in the US, is SPIR a straightforward purchase?

[the millipede] 20/1/2022 10:03

The problem with Spire is share price is dropping like a brick and seems unrelated to wider market falls.

I bought at the start of the month thinking the falls were likely related to crystallising losses at end of US tax year (which is calendar year) but clearly that was totally wrong!

[the millipede] 20/1/2022 10:01

Also, found this, written yesterday, on a U.S. chat board (Yahoo Finance) about Spire Global. Author is Ethan.

Writing this for myself as much as anyone else, so I can revisit my investment thesis next year and hold myself accountable. Spire's risk/reward is now reasonable. At fair market value by either looking at the sum of its parts or take private valuation. $161 million for ExactEarth, ~$100 million in remaining cash on hand & 120+ Lemur satellites in orbit. (estimated cost to replace $100 million?)

$45.2 million in annual recurring revenue + $18 million (ExactEarth) = $63 million+ annual revenue. Orbcomm bought in 2021 for $1.1 billion at 5x revenue. Hawkeye 360 just raised $145 million series D at a similar valuation. Just not going to do $145 million in 2022 as advertised, but $70 million seems realistic.

To rise going forward, the rotation of SPAQ holders and PIPE sellers will have to be completed over the next year to holders that are focused on future earnings, not liquidating or YOLO strategy. This year could bring new customers for their data from the Space Force weather commercial opportunity and price increases for their maritime data given the acquisition.

Also, although interest rates are rising in general, their cost of borrowing could really go way down for SPIR compared to the cost of capital it was paying of 11%! on some loans from when it was a private company.

Could drop to $280 million market cap, but just as easily rally to $420 in the near-term.

Entered position to build a portfolio around maritime data.

[the millipede] 20/1/2022 08:59

Who knows. I suspect the next NAV will be a reduction compared to the last one (September 2022).

The holdings are, generally, quite speculative , so in the short term, prices might be volatile, but some have the potential to generate substantial revenues over the next 12-24 months. ArQit, for instance, has developed a (possibly the only) cyber security system that can repel attacks from quantum computers and already counts BT as a client. They say they have $1bn in potential pipeline contracts.

[davidro77] 19/1/2022 19:16

Heading for sub float price at this rate!This is one I actually got right, was in at 100 and exited at 125 shortly before the drop started. As said below, with listed holdings declining seemed a weird disconnect that this had held up like it did and now appears to be playing catch up. Liked the idea, but now the market has turned against the sector probably not going to recover any time soon

[the millipede] 19/1/2022 15:10

Worth a look. There is also a webcast on Spire’s website.

[jonwig] 17/1/2022 20:36

The reason for making a reduction in the share premium account (10/01) is to create a distributable reserve. Since SSIT has negligible income, this would mean essentially a return of capital.

This possibility was floated in the prospectus, but does it send a signal that they can find no better use for their funds than returning them to shareholders?

[the millipede] 11/1/2022 11:40

Should perhaps add I like the holdings. I now own Spire and Arqit, but I bought them at current price direct, not a 20% premium based on the price of end September (which was higher than it is now).