Seraphim Space Investment Share Discussion Threads

[robbie887] 18/7/2023 15:27

Check today's volume. You'll see that it's Well above average , indicating they've run the buyback today .

[spectoacc] 18/7/2023 14:29

85k at 31p earlier, or 65k at 33p maybe - or a trade we're yet to see reported.

[wsm812] 18/7/2023 14:04

I wonder if the buy back has started?

[spectoacc] 18/7/2023 08:38

Well, so far they've spent £0, but achieved a nice rise, as mooted above. Be interesting to see if they actually buy any back, and what effect it has. If nothing else, they could have a disproportionate effect due to SSIT's very low volumes.

[sebfletcherrice] 18/7/2023 08:36

Has a small scale buyback program ever really had a long term impact on share price? Weak attempt to appease agitating investors but never solves the fundamental issues...

[soulected] 16/7/2023 14:41

Mentioned in This Is Money...Seraphim Space shares rise by 18 per cent after buyback announcement hTTps://mol.im/a/12287731

[spectoacc] 14/7/2023 15:51

Seemingly no shares actually repurchased yesterday, and 259k volume so far suggests none today either. Still suspect I'm right about the low-cost method of giving the share price a little boost.

Test will be what size of buy back if/when they do it. Peanuts, is my guess.

[robbie887] 13/7/2023 17:56

Looks like the most of surge was short lived.

The buyback announcement is obviously a step in the right direction.

However the investment managers ought to do more in addressing i.e. reducing the massive discount to NAV which has been somewhat persisting for a while now.

[wsm812] 13/7/2023 08:18

Up >20% on small volume....cue MMs wringing their miserly hands with glee!

[spectoacc] 13/7/2023 08:18

But why not specify the amount? And why say - in the same RNS - that their existing £35m cash is likely to last 12-18 months.

They're clearly going to use some of the £35m on buy backs, therefore won't have enough for "12-18 months". But why not tell us how much. Whether it's £5m or £500k makes a big difference.

Too cynical to think it's a cheap ploy to get the share price up, whilst spending possibly next to nothing?

[jonwig] 13/7/2023 08:04

If they bought in the maximum, it would cost them some £10m (assuming the price doesn't go up much). If there were big calls on their £35m kitty, they might stop the buyback.

[spectoacc] 13/7/2023 07:57

Bizarre RNS.

"Though the Company has the authority to repurchase up to 35,883,800 of its Ordinary Shares (representing circa 14.99 per cent. of the Company's issued share capital), the Company can confirm that it is not planning on fully utilising this authority with the proposed Share Repurchase Programme."

Presumably because there wouldn't then be the cash for supporting the co's over the next "12-18 months".

What happens after that?

"...The Board is confident that the Company's existing £35m cash reserve will be able to support the expected fundraise requirements of the portfolio over the next 12-18 months."

[wsm812] 13/7/2023 07:45

So it's a share buy back for SSIT also. Great move at these hugely low prices, but will it make a significant difference to the sp?

[jonwig] 04/7/2023 06:52

They make a big point about holding "preference"-type shares in their investee companies, which gives them protection in case of a down-round. Most early-stage companies have a different share class for each fundraising round, so I'm not sure how this is so special.

And what they don't say is what protection they're afforded against insolvency, or what advantage in a buyout or IPO.

Another issue, this time practical. Google satellite hacking and get some rarely-discussed concerns.

[spectoacc] 04/7/2023 06:46

If you consolidated the holdings into SSIT's accounts, how much profit would there be, ie what would the read-through p/e be?

Are any making money? I'll let you have EBITDA rather than actual profit.

[rambutan2] 04/7/2023 04:09

Have also been a buyer at below 30p. It's rare for a non distressed trust to reach such a large discount. Especially one with no debt and actually a chunk of cash. And I don't think a number of the main holdings are as risky/early stage as the mkt imagines they are. With high quality shareholders and quasi govt backing. In any case, the current £65m mkt cap offers a very large moat and a large amount of upside on a far from stretching hit rate. Aimho

[ec2] 30/6/2023 09:18

Picked some more up sub 27p. The valuation methodology being followed by the fund for the unquoteds seems a reasonable approach. Space is the future so need some to compliment my many traditional value stock positions. Not sure how low the market could still take these so making small purchases as part of a pound cost average strategy. This was my third purchase. Position sizing is important here. My total position is still less than one percent of my entire portfolio, so if they fall further it doesn't really move the needle but I think the potential upside over time could be very good.

[spectoacc] 29/6/2023 15:24

Not wishing to give anyone an earworm, but Tasmin Archer's Sleeping Satellite seems apt. Hopefully sleeping, not returning to earth.

[spectoacc] 26/6/2023 17:02

Sentiment clearly against SSIT, but I see the issues as more nuanced.

Basically, they've a large portfolio with a high NAV. They've also a substantial cash pile. That puts them in a brilliant position to continue funding some of their early-stage portfolio.

But - not all of it. And they've got another problem - if there's no funding available out there (likely not an unreasonable guess), they get to call the shots on the price the new cash goes in at. The lower the better, in theory, but that also whacks the NAV of the existing holding.

The usual IT trick is to put the cash in at a high valuation, and "prove" your NAV (see CHRY, GROW etc). Not sure that's so relevant when SSIT trading at this large a discount.

So do you trust them to back the winners with the remaining cash they've got, and accept a number (but not all) of the rest are likely to fall by the wayside? Arguably still a good punt down here, but not one you can necessarily judge from current NAV, current cash pile (which will get spent).