Seraphim Space Investment Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 08/1/2024 16:38

Think the best thing about it is it's low-risk here - with a lot more upside potential.

Another strong (albeit slightly false) close on the UT today, and still room on the chart to go higher.

[apple53] 08/1/2024 09:53

Point taken. Would mean it's slightly 'all or nothing' (or 'all or not-very-much') from here, ie it could creep up, indirectly to 40-50% discount on a flattish NAV, with maybe a 70%+ probability, or double in a month on the sort of scenario you are describing.
Thank you.

[spectoacc] 08/1/2024 06:45

I think all SSIT needs is a success or two - eg an exit of a holding after a t/o by eg a big defence co. Something like that solves the cash runway at a stroke, provides for more buy backs/supporting the remaining investments, and proves the NAV to a sceptical market.

So I've not so much a target price, as a notion that SSIT's NAV will rise and discount narrow at the same time, on a single event.

Pie in the sky until it happens, but not outlandish either.

[apple53] 07/1/2024 21:15

I like your defence point, rambutan.
"On October 31, 2023, during the 2023 Israel-Hamas War, Israel's Arrow 2 system intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Yemen by Houthi rebels; this successful interception occurred outside of Earth's atmosphere thus making it the first recorded practical instance of space warfare during an active conflict."

I bought at a friend's suggestion a year ago at 47p (at what already seemed a massive discount), missed my chance to sell on the first rebound in Sep, and then bought a lot more around 30p. Man what a trading stock this has been despite a relatively large spread.

Anyone willing to share either (or both of) their short term target discount (noting large discounts across the board in PE at present) and their medium term target discount (assuming a 10-15 percentage point narrowing across the board)?

[spectoacc] 04/1/2024 06:44

Agreed. Wouldn't pay NAV for it, no chance, but at this discount? There's not much beaten up junk (space junk?) I'm a fan of, but SSIT fits the bill.

[rambutan2] 03/1/2024 20:52

Moving on up, as it should be. After all, it is a defence sector play, a play on the geopolitical ructions ongoing, a play on the reawakening of defence budgets and realisation that some sort of space presence is a necessity for any self respecting nation. Well, that's how i see it...

[spectoacc] 28/12/2023 08:20

Agreed, one of the cheaper things around, barely budged as interest rate expectations (particularly in the US) have changed.

Hoping for a 2024 tip for SSIT - which, with enough of a rise, I'd probably sell into.

SSIT isn't perfect - there's still question marks around it having enough cash to support investee co's in the future - but the downside from here, with that NAV, isn't large. Only really takes one success, or one change in sentiment.

All IMO DYOR

[rambutan2] 20/12/2023 16:33

I continue to add at this silly discount and expect to be richly rewarded over the next few years as Mr Mkt gets over the name and concentrates on the investments.

From a piece last week on 13 trust bargains:

Winterflood’s Shavar Halberstadt highlights Seraphim Space Investment Trust as a “particularly poignant example of excessive de-rating”. He notes: “Whereas higher interest rates have naturally reduced the attractiveness of longer-dated cashflows and the SSIT portfolio includes immature seed investments, one wonders whether a discount to NAV of 64.5% is justified. This must be weighed against the immense addressable market for space technology, including defence and climate applications, and the fact that many portfolio companies are revenue generating and attracting capital despite market conditions.”

[quepassa] 04/12/2023 12:37

A new research piece just released today by Edison.

Very interesting. Well worth reading

[spectoacc] 20/11/2023 16:38

Definitely been some hefty selling - look at the SSIT chart compared to the bounce on everything else the past 2 weeks (at least until today's tick-up).

[nimbo1] 20/11/2023 16:36

I think how seraphim came into being is part of the reason the price is so low... it was a private fund backed by some large US funds but also some wealthy pi's... imagine when it listed many of the Pi's held hoping for great things only to feel the pressure everywhere over the past 2 years... probably selling the low's.

[spectoacc] 20/11/2023 16:23

Need to see some giant late-reported trades - more than the 200k at 29.8p this morning - but starting to hope the overhang may be busted.

[spectoacc] 20/11/2023 09:58

Think it'll take some realisation(s) to shift them/remove the overhang.

[robbie887] 20/11/2023 09:53

SSIT still languishing in the mud.

Management are clearly not doing enough to address the ludicrious NAV-share price disconnect, despite the buyback.

[spectoacc] 20/11/2023 07:55

Doubt it'll do anything to the s/p, but an unexpected (to me) NAV rise.

Seems a big overhang still around on SSIT.

[rambutan2] 19/11/2023 21:52

1st quarter results tmrro, which should be fairly upbeat about the portfolio, although not the share price. I've gone very overweight as 60%+ non distressed discounts are a rare thing and not to be ignored when offered by Mr Mkt...

[quepassa] 08/11/2023 21:42

Article in press that they appear to have given up on raising cash through equity issuance for the time being given the enormous discount.

And are now considering raising funds through a "side fund" or private feeder fund with institutional investors.


Lots of articles about it. The FT had a detailed article but here's another one:-

hXXps://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/news/citywire-news/seraphim-space-eyes-private-fund-as-feeder-for-cash-strapped-trust


all imo. dyor.
qp

[rambutan2] 08/11/2023 21:00

Well, this is back on a silly discount and given me the chance to add again. Currently the mkt cap is covered by ICEYE and the £29m cash. The former appears to be thriving, partic in the defence sector, as is Hawkeye 360, and others in the top 10 are also certainly worth well north of zero.

I don't really understand why the board bought back all the way from 28p to 49p, and then just stopped, and watched as the shares rolled all the way back down to the current 30p. But hey ho, I'm happy to take advantage...

[quepassa] 16/10/2023 11:25

1.Try Zoom

or

2. send message to their pr firm requesting sign-up

[e-mail]

(change XX for im )

[wsm812] 16/10/2023 11:16

Do have a link QuePassa? They are not on Investor Meet.

[quepassa] 16/10/2023 10:50

Seraphim Interim Results online investor presentation tomorrow 11am.

Should be very interesting

[spectoacc] 11/9/2023 09:44

Missed the t/s, thanks.

"-- SSIT intends to reserve approximately two-thirds of current cash available for investment (having taken into account SSIT's estimated operating costs for the next two years) ("Net Cash") to support the next funding rounds over the next two years of portfolio companies that require SSIT's support, offer high return potential and/or are managed by strong teams; and

-- the remaining Net Cash is currently expected to be available for new investments and funding share buy-backs."

[wsm812] 11/9/2023 09:39

Great rise since July, most meduim term holders should be in profit again now? The recent results confirm that this trust is still well under valued to NAV and should continue it's rise into orbit and beyond!

[slicethepie] 11/8/2023 13:08

Wow some hissy fit even took his stumps with him bless!