Sepura Share Discussion Threads

[gregsc] 08/12/2016 12:01

Theory 4 may be correct.

[1gw] 08/12/2016 11:59

Never mind. Theory 5 ruled out by latest 8.3.

[1gw] 08/12/2016 11:19

Some more thoughts on Hendos just to keep things ticking along, again also posted on LSE. Option 5 works as a theory only until we get another 8.3 from them of course! And since I posted on LSE I realised they could also have been made an insider to discuss support for options in the event the takeover doesn't materialise, such as at what price they would support a placing. So even option 5 isn't necessarily good news.

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It intrigues me why Hendos didn't (apparently) sell any on Tuesday (6th). Before that the last day they missed was the 29th Nov, a day when the share price didn't get over 20p (according to Yahoo! Finance). So 29th could be explained by them having set a limit of 20p on their daily sales. Before the 29th, the last day they missed was 23rd Nov if I've been tracking the 8.3's correctly.

So 5 possible reasons I can see for lack of sales on 6th, and there are probably others:

1. The trader responsible was off that day (mundane but possible)
2. They want to keep the market guessing by not selling every day (non-conspiracy theory)
3. They've reached a level they're happy with (risk management theory)
4. They didn't need to sell to keep the price down that day (conspiracy theory)
5. They've been made an insider and couldn't sell (new theory)

5 is what intrigues me the most. Is it possible that Sepura and Hytera have now reached an agreement that Sepura board is prepared to recommend and they are now working on bringing the major shareholders on board so that when they announce they can say that they already have irrevocable undertakings from holders speaking for x% of the share capital? In order to do this they would have to get any shareholders approached to sign non-disclosure agreements and to acknowledge that they had inside information, which would prevent them selling until that information was made public. Clearly too early to say with any degree of certainty, but an interesting possibility perhaps...

[sweenoid] 08/12/2016 07:57

It's going down to the 'final countdown' then folks, I can almost hear that tune humming away!

Question is whether it will be all over for the acquisition -either way by 5pm tomorrow OR they extend again - if so they will notify us sometime today.cant believe another extension would be necessary.

The word brinksmanship comes to mind
S

[chadders] 07/12/2016 19:16

Thanks 1gw, excellent info.

[roundup] 07/12/2016 10:50

What better time for Henderson to dispose of a load of sharesThe anticipated offer helps to keep the price up despite big sells going through.

[billthebank] 07/12/2016 10:14

Great posts 1gw and fab research. That sounds very plausible

[1gw] 07/12/2016 10:08

And for completeness, here's a second post where I detailed the moves in each of the Henderson subsidiaries' holdings. I accept that it is possible that Hendersons are managing the 2 holdings together and just choosing to sell down in AlphaGen rather than HGI, but personally I favour the interpretation that the 2 holdings are being managed essentially independently here.

Post I put on the LSE board on Monday:
HGI have actually increased since July 2016, whereas Alphagen are on a clear downward path.

Also, because the situation changed on 4th November with the announcement of the bid possibility, I think it is worth focusing on what has happened since then. The HGI/Alphagen split is only given in the holdings notices, not the 8.3's, although you can deduce them from the 8.3's given that HGI hasn't been moving. So just looking at the OPD (with a deduced split) and subsequent holdings notices we have:

HGI
6.5% throughout period from 4th November

Alphagen
8.5% 4th Nov
8.1% 7th Nov
6.7% 21st Nov
6.0% 22nd Nov
5.4% 25th Nov
4.4% 2nd Dec

As I've said before, I don't see anything sinister in the Alphagen reduction, I think it is most probably just because this type of low cap, special situations holding (which would be relatively illiquid after an initial fall if the bid does not come through) does not fit with their investment criteria.

[1gw] 07/12/2016 09:52

Hendersons. Here's a post I put on the LSE board a while ago. In my mind this is the most likely reason for Hendersons sale - that the AlphaGen Capital part of the company is focusing on "liquid, scalable" strategies and their Sepura holding does not fit and so is being sold down taking advantage of the current bid premium.

Since I put the post below we have had a further holdings notice that confirms it is still AlphaGen selling. They are down to 4.4% vs the 8.5% (by deduction) they held on 4th November at the start of the "offer period" whereas HGI are still at the 6.5% they held on 4th Nov.

Post I put on LSE board:

If you look at the holdings notices, as someone else pointed out, Hendersons holdings are split between 2 subsidiaries:
Alphagen Capital
Henderson Global Investors

It appears to be Alphagen Capital which is selling down their Sepura position.

Now recently a team from Alphagen Capital moved to another company. As part of the press around that move, I noticed the following:

'Paul Graham, CEO of AlphaGen Capital, says: “As our business model is increasingly focused on more liquid and scalable strategies, we agreed with Volantis that moving to Lombard Odier IM would be in the best interest of investors.'

Now it occurs to me that Alphagen's investment in Sepura (essentially now a very small cap special situations position) is neither very liquid nor very scalable.

So is it as simple as saying that Alphagen's holding in Sepura no longer fits the company's investment criteria and so they are liquidating the position in a way which tries to avoid too much disruption to the share price?

Link to the article on the move of the "Volantis" team from Alphagen to Lombard Odier, from hedgeweek:

[yaki] 07/12/2016 09:27

Shroder
Good point
Another possibility is that they might have reassessed the risk and the risk/compliance committee asked the fund managers to tone down the risk.

Or they might have redemptions that need meeting and hence need to sell. Or just nervous about the current market conditions and increasing cash holding.

I very much doubt they have any specific insider knowledge.

[shroder] 07/12/2016 09:21

Here's my take FWIW, Henderson selling in anticipation of bid falling through and additional funds needed via equity raising.

If this is the scenario (it's just one possible) it would make sense to leave enough room within their buying remit.

Just an alternative view, nothing more.

[franki8] 07/12/2016 08:34

you're like a bad smell mate innit ;-)

Deadline is friday, no news is not bad news.

[ohdearohdearohdear] 07/12/2016 08:14

Nobody has made an offer yet.

Concerning innit :-)

22p? Or !0p?

[sweenoid] 07/12/2016 08:10

The link in newbies post is dated 7th November and is unsubstantiated

Companies are both still talking , no one has walked away.

Exciting innit ;-)
S

[loss-leader] 07/12/2016 07:48

T_M what moniker does your cat post under? I will factor it into my decision support.

[blueblood] 07/12/2016 07:38

Your very humble opinion means jack sh*t so jog on and get ready for school...

[tracy_moore] 07/12/2016 07:37

Could you give us your opinion one more time , only I missed the last 100 de-ramps ohdearohdear, you make it sound so matter of fact. In fact you have no more idea than my cat.

[ohdearohdearohdear] 07/12/2016 07:36

22p is the offer. 10p if bid falls through.

IMHO;-)

[newbie_1] 07/12/2016 06:48

Sepura has 370 million shares ,
Hytera has offered £90m ,
-> 24p per share ! !

The FIRST bid was £90m !!

hxxp://www.cityam.com/253049/chinese-firm-offer-90m-walkie-talkie-maker-sepura

----> i think, there is a higher bid than £90m

[scapital] 06/12/2016 21:36

Occam or Ockham, but never Oakham.

[jayrh] 06/12/2016 21:10

How much as hendersons payed for its holding.

[loss-leader] 06/12/2016 21:02

So if Henderson's do have inside information that the bid (which all the signs agree is likely to come by Friday) is only 20-22 .. how come:

- the other institutional shareholders are not doing the same?
- SEPU bothered to take the bid seriously and extend the deadline?

It is as if H expect it to fail and S (and the other institutions) expect it to succeed. They cannot both be right!

LL