Senior Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 16/11/2022 16:07

I've know Senior for nearly 30 years (a tad depressing!)
from memory participated in the Flexonics RI, which would have been
circa 1993.

As Simon mentions they've not exactly blown the lights out on a longer
term view and that's probably being too kind.

Possibly worth more to someone else, particularly with GBP v USD and a good
% of their revenues earned ex outside UK.
Pension scheme now fully funded, net debt has been significantly reduced with
hopefully a strong recovery in their core markets to come - that's with my optimistic hat on!.

[disc0dave45] 16/11/2022 15:57

EI, not on a fence think that's obvious lol :)Good luck then and do hope they hit forecasts.......guess your doubts here have been completely eradicated by the thought of no more pension deficit contributions - even when interest rates normalise!.

[disc0dave45] 16/11/2022 14:47

And for the UK their rate will increase from April 2023 and this will increase their overall effective tax rate.Think I get where you are coming from but cash flow generation doesn't determine the percentage rate of tax, yes the sum to be taxed but not the rate....unless I've completely misunderstood.

[elsa7878] 16/11/2022 14:25

You need to look at the free cashflow and not the P&L.

They depreciate to the value of approx £45-50 million a year but their capex spend is only £20-25 million. Not 100% sure on those figures but it is something in that area.

So the P&L does not reflect the underlying cash generation and keeps the tax payable very low.

[disc0dave45] 16/11/2022 12:34

Still think a PE of 17x is too high given macros for the next year or so. At some point this will get back to 12p eps but when is the million dollar question.They have a 85% uplift in eps on only a 12% increase in revenue!....some feat that with gross margin of only c 20%.

[gargoyle2] 16/11/2022 12:21

Agree that 30x PER for this year looks pricey, but if forecasts are to be believed (close to 7p EPS next year, then over 10p in 2024 -- according to Sharepad), then you're looking at earnings growth of over 80% next year, with a PE 12 months out of around 17. Not so bad on that metric imo, assuming the numbers come in.

[disc0dave45] 16/11/2022 11:57

Ps meant to add, its my understanding that pension deficit cashflow payments don't go through the P&L, so zero impact on their profits.

[disc0dave45] 16/11/2022 11:49

Hi EIHeld these ages ago and always liked the business but it's massively overpriced IMO. Yes no more pension payments is a nice positive but they incurred £11m in H1 due to adverse fx movements, £2.8m in additional lease payments and their tax was only 9.%, which will increase to 25% next April (that's about c £3m off their bottom line).Assuming H2 earnings are in a par with H1 then say 4p eps for the year, a forward PE of 30x.Will still keep my eye in their progress but at the moment there's better value stocks out there IMO.All the best though.

[essentialinvestor] 16/11/2022 08:32

On FY 2023 pre tax that may be a 10% plus uplift as contributions represented
a fair chunk of pre tax profit.

On consensus estimates I'm unsure what £ pension payment analysts had modelled
for FY 23 onwards.

[castleford tiger] 16/11/2022 08:27

5.5m very nice on bottom line

[essentialinvestor] 16/11/2022 07:33

No more pension contributions needed perhaps a stand out from the update.


That's a nice plus to the bottom line from 2023.

[gargoyle2] 15/11/2022 21:17

.. surprising? idiotic? self-serving?

[essentialinvestor] 15/11/2022 16:45

Simon, agree it hasn't, which is why turning down £2 a share was ...

[simon gordon] 15/11/2022 16:44

Trading in a very tight range in 2022. In the past 30+ years they haven't blown the lights out.

Yearly chart:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[essentialinvestor] 15/11/2022 16:40

What makes me slightly cautious on SNR is the very tepid bounce over
the last few weeks.

Perhaps the market is looking for more evidence that recovery is definitely underway.

[essentialinvestor] 15/11/2022 15:27

Added another small amount, unsure on this tbf, let's see.

[gargoyle2] 15/11/2022 08:54

MRO today on the Aerospace sector: "Aerospace enjoyed improving momentum in the first half of the year, with sales up 11%, and encouragingly trading has been stronger again since, with the average revenue per month in the Period being 6% higher than that seen in the first half. In addition, operating margins are notably better than achieved in the first half. Aerospace is positioned well to benefit from the strong momentum being seen into next year."

[gargoyle2] 14/11/2022 13:51

SNR trading update Wednesday 16th, according to the company website

[essentialinvestor] 12/10/2022 15:59

Back in for a small amount.

SP very much grounded ATM, but we can hope.

[castleford tiger] 03/10/2022 13:10

Ian is no fool.
EX CEO of BAE this is him seeing good value

tiger

[roguetraderuk] 03/10/2022 11:28

aero linked are lower today on lower aircraft orders for month of august. 30 were placed vs 155 a year ago, but it is higher than the 9 placed back in august 2020 whilst in the midst of covid. so it looks like a bumpy recovery but you can argue its heading in the right direction..

[gargoyle2] 03/10/2022 10:58

Ian King chairman buys 200k at 116

[essentialinvestor] 29/9/2022 17:02

Back in this afternoon for a very small amount. Hopefully someone else will see value.

Debt markets less support now but a large fall in cable may compensate for that.

[gargoyle2] 28/9/2022 14:20

I see that Lone Star just pulled out of a potential offer for BOCH (Bank of Cyprus). With luck, they'll be dusting off their notes on SNR, after last year's rejected offer. Must look crazy cheap imo to a US bidder -- having a fair percentage of its revenues in USD.