 They ask for questions to be submitted and over 80 were, but they couldn't be bothered to answer any. They couldn't wait to end the presentation. They have literally failed to deliver on any target or objective.
They stated that Europe produces circa 330K commercial vehicles per year. We have the first GSR in place and the second due in 20 months. We had hundreds of thousands of PO'S. We had little or no competition and in most cases were the only company responding to RFQ's. You'd think all of those positive drivers would lead to more than a 15,000 sales target for Gen 3 in this financial year, but no that's the best they are expecting. As I have said you could tell it was all BS. No commercial vehicle manufacturers want the product until they have to. Today Paul also admits that there's lots of competition out there.
One of the other big unknowns, which they never explain, is which dms supplier is filling the void in the information around 'missing OEM's' from now until 2026.
SEE said this on their Website:
"2024
Regulation mandates motor vehicles of categories M and N to be equipped with ADDW systems from 7 July 2024 for all new vehicle types".
So if we assume all vehicle oem's will have a new vehicle type between July 24 and July 26 then all oem's must have selected their dms supplier because of the long lead times (maybe not literally, but with a 2 year lead time we are looking at a 4 year window with some needing to make their dms decision in 2022 for 2024 delivery).
As Paul stated the new RFQ's are looking for delivery from 2027. Twelve months after ALL vehicles are mandated to have camera based DMS.
Even with the Magna mirror option for dms those oem's that haven't chosen their dms supplier either can't have any new vehicle types between now and July 2026 or have literally a few months to make up their minds to meet the July 2026 deadline.
Who's supplying Telsa for example? Either no new vehicle types between now and 2026 or circa 21 months to meet July 26 with a yet to be declared camera based dms supplier.
Obviously we're not expecting any more oem's to meet the 2026 deadline because Paul said the RFQ's they are working on are for delivery from 2027.
No wonder the share price is where it is with so many gaps in our understanding of the future opportunities. |
Ouch, another one for the bottom draw! Its not dead, but the delay in income positivity has spooked a lot of investors it seems. |
But you sold out, right Stu T? |
Seems I was right and the market doesn't like it. |
3+ year low @3.945p |
Main indication is there is enough cash to see them to cash Flow positive |
Loss increased
Cash being eaten up
No mention of profit
Hard to value at current level. |
Are you long ? If so why if you're so bearish ? If not long how comes you post here so much ? |
"Sharp shooter"? No one knew our partner was developing their own DMS in direct competition until we were forced to buy it in order to keep the relationship with Valeo alive. It was that good they sold it to us rather than dumping us and using it themselves!
There wasn't a renewal of the license fee with Catapiller. We sold them the remaining Gen 2 and forward sold the Royalties for the next 5 years. There's no more mo ey coming from Catapiller for years to come at least.
As I said fitments are rising, but new business to support and sustain the fitment trajectory have stalled. Next to no new business for a year now.
We all hope the Magna mirror is the missing piece which will reduce the lead time from winning new contracts and deployment, but the fact that DMS isn't being fitted in the numbers we need until it is mandatory leaves us vulnerable.
Cash flow breakeven delayed again and little or no spare cash to produce Gen 3 products if they are ever required in significant numbers. On the other side the Magna CLN and depressed share price are worrying. |
Growth has stalled? How about 100% increase in cars on road year on year?
Design win to SOP time will decrease because the Magna mirror is so easy to integrate - that’s half the point of it.
And if you don’t think we have had contract extensions then please refer to the RNS in the last twelve months.
Not to mention acquiring a DMS sharpshooter that has worked with Valeo - new contracts loom there for sure.
Not to mention a new license deal with CAT - hmmm maybe just maybe that will lead to significant fleet installs?
Something isn’t right - and it’s nvltd spouting misinformation. |
We don't need to wait for anything. Growth has stalled and not met expectations. While fitment rates maybe increasing at the moment the lag between winning contracts and deployment will eventually cause deployment rates to stagnate too in 18 months to 2 years.
The first GSR is already here and because a camera isn't mandatory very few vehicle manufacturers have chosen our type of system and clearly they don't won't it until they have to.
We haven't won any contracts this year despite the build up and hype around Gen 3 and GSR no oem in both auto and fleet seem in any rush to buy our system. There's literally only 20 months to comply with the new GSR rules. Based on Delivery timelines something isn't right? |
We shall find out tomorrow. No need for speculation or wild theories, just patience. |
Nvltd always pointing out the positives
Cash flow breakeven coming soon
Ives committed to reducing cash burn
Magna license deal in the near future
What’s not to like? |
We become Cash flow breakeven within 10 weeks time according to the targets set by the company. However, they've since said that target has been pushed back by upto 2 quarter. In other words instead of the end of H1 2025 they now say the end of H2 2025. With their track record for missing targets even that could move out again.
There's only 8 months to go before the Magna deal comes to an end, becomes non exclusive or gets extended. The repayment of the CLN is looming large so profitability and any delays to acheiving it starts to become an issue and weakens our negotiating hand.
Martin Ives also said that Cash might become an issue. That was based on the understanding that he was going to reduce monthly Cash burn and hit the end of calendar year 2024 to breakeven. They obviously know that things haven't gone to plan hence the desperate deal to sell all of the remaining G2 units to Caterpillar while forfeiting any ongoing royalties. |
Not to mention cash flow breakeven forthcoming - a huge re-rate potential |
Not much to be unhappy about - next kpis should be dramatic - it’s probably why your walker partner is smiling. |
I've got a very happy neighbour And when he's happy ..So am I Onwards and upwards x |
Paul stated that we would achieve 40% of the market, but 50% of the revenue. He also said that the market size by now should be $2 billion, that the delayed contracts would be bigger and better, that early 2024 would be busy for new contracts and we had thousands of PO'S for Guardian. He also said we should have a red / blue label aviation product and a 330 aircraft contract by the end of 2022.
Then he suggested the share price should be around 70p by now.
The common thread through all of those statements? None delivered |
Colin Barnden’s Post
Principal Analyst, Semicast Research
1h
As this image shows, the Magna #occupant #monitoring #mirror is now visually confirmed at start of production using video in the public domain. There is footage over four months old, which pre-dates much of the garbage that has been shared recently about the commercial success of the product. Finding the video was like searching for the proverbial needle in the haystack, but sometimes that is the experience of an analyst. This is the first time I have seen the mirror on video, and we can now see the technical configuration looks like "light pupil" using two sets of #IRLEDs, one oriented vertically and one horizontally. That may suggest the illumination strategy itself supports the c-pose orientation feature necessary for operation from the mirror location.
940nm IR light is invisible to the naked eye, meaning the occupant mirror is visually indistinguishable to the driver and occupants from the standard mirror that Magna International supplies to Volkswagen Group and that is used in so many VW Group models, including those from AUDI AG and Porsche AG. VW has come in for incredible criticism on many fronts for several years, but here it has a world first of single optical path driver and full cabin monitoring #CMS from inside the rear-view mirror. So credit where it is due, and VW put its faith in a novel product from Magna and Seeing Machines, and that product has been delivered as specified.
The video shown is of the 2024 Tiguan L Pro in China, so that implies the two production programs tied to VW and Magna/Seeing Machines are for Europe and China, probably with different feature sets to meet #GBT in China and Euro NCAP - For Safer Cars, Vans & Trucks and #GSR compliance in the EU.
Seeing Machines is the only #DMS developer known to have a production-grade solution for the rear-view mirror. Gentex Corporation has software from the acquisition of Guardian Optical mated with incredible technical competence in the mirror, so it is not to be underestimated. But for now Magna has the lead and #OEMs everywhere will take note of what VW has accomplished here.
Video link If you want to skip through, the relevant footage of the illuminators flashing from behind the mirror glass starts about 15:18, and then again at 15:34. There's other segments, but those are the clearest ones.
Research for the 2025 edition of Semicast's automotive DMS report is underway. Message me to request the outline document, to receive sample pages or for a copy of the order form.
For institutional investors, family offices and others seeking an expert third-party source to understand comparisons between Cipia, Seeing Machines, Smart Eye, and Tobii, I can be booked for telephone-based consultancy via GLG, Guidepoint, and Third Bridge Group Limited Bridge. Just ask for me by name. |
McGlone should restate as he has before it is 40% of DMS revenues, rather than 40% of overall market. SEYE and Cipia will soak up the budget revenues I am sure. This is the best strategy as China will copy, improve and undercut the bottom end very quickly. |
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