You'll need to explain how viewing the video relates or challenges what I have said? In other words what's your point? |
nvhitd you really do talk utter n. Listen to this presentation |
 The GSR deadline for this year is for the following:
2024
Regulation mandates motor vehicles of categories M and N to be equipped with ADDW systems from 7 July 2024 for all new vehicle types.
So if what Paul has stated previously is correct and there is a 2 year implementation phase from contract to SoP then we can deduce that there cannot be any more 'new vehicle types' coming in the next 2 years that we don't already know about. Any new contracts going forward will be to meet the second GSR in July 2026 which states this:
2026
Regulation mandates motor vehicles of categories M and N to be equipped with an ADDW system from 2026 for all new vehicle registrations.
Because we haven't won any significant new contracts for almost 2 years what we have now is all we have for the foreseeable and any new contracts awarded going forward will take 2 years before SoP.
The delays awarding new contracts is the biggest delay and threat to profitability and therefore share price appreciation for which Paul has to take alot of responsibility for continually telling investors that new contracts are imminent. |
Basically, we are currently in a period where investment is needed to gain future market share, while revenues are not being earned as regulation hasnt forced adoption yet. SEE has been investing heavily for years and as a result has strategic partnerships with several of the major producers. The magna deal was simply recognition of that from an indutry leading supplier.
Its obvious that these partnerships will bear fruit when the regulation obliges automakers to include DMS in production vehicles, which is the second half of this year. Any weakness now in SEE's price is therefore almost certainly a buying opportunity. We are just in an environment where the UK market is not doing well. Once revenues start to grow, I wouldnt be surprised to see a NASDAQ listing - the CEO has already alluded to investigating this possibility. |
*regulation requires |
I think its more that auto makers have delayed including until the regulation permits, which is currently 7 July this year in the EU. We should see exponential revenue growth from that point as new models are launched and production of old models start to wind down. By Q426 when the magna payment is due it shouldnt be an issue at all. the main issue will be whether magna wants ot convert at 11p, which will hopefully be significantly lower than the share price by that date. |
What regulation have been delayed since we enter the agreement with Magna? |
(It’s a fixed 11p conversion price) |
They originally drew done £30m of the £47.5 available. I don’t think they have taken the remainder available but I might be wrong there.
Even if they have taken the full £47.5m, it would be a 9.9% dilution if they can’t pay it back. Which would be massive plus for the stock price at this level to get the borrowing off the balance sheet. If they can’t pay it back, it will mean that the business has failed operationally - which it isn’t doing as far as the numbers show.
Magna will also have to renew its exclusive license next year in June, which could mean another licensing fee for see. Effectively Magna has lost out by regulations being delayed as it had exclusivity through I that period. |
Lower Highs, lower lows - awful chart. |
Magna's have given SEE $47.5 million via a CLN that is repayable in October 2026 at 11p.
So we either pay them back, renegotiate and extend or they convert. If the share price doesn't improve by then and they convert the dilution will be massive.
If nothing else we need the share price to be north of 11p when that date arrives or the cash in the bank ready to pay them back if we are not to be wiped out. While contradictory 2 years is nothing in this particular instance, but a long time to endure a slow recovery, new contracts or SOP with new contracts and the 2026 GSR.
CLN's are never good in my experience, but they needed the cash because management have failed to deliver time and time again.
They only have just over 12 months left on the exclusive arrangement with Magna. Everyone seems to think we hold all the aces, but Magna could easily switch to Smarteye or Cipia for example.
The arrangement so far has delivered very little especially as Paul said this position in the mirror was the holy grail. |
I wish I'd never bought in the first place! It starting to remind me of that other awful automotive experience I had with a wonderful technology as well - Torotrak |
Miraculously I'm still up on these, but wish I'd sold out years ago. |
The slow motion car crash seems to be continuing. I hold from 12p yonks ago |
Likewise I got in too early, but my rational for my investment still stands.
Magna paid £51m for a 9.9% stake in SEE, back in Oct 22, so they valued the IP for this exclusive licence at considerably more than todays mkt cap and at a stage when it hadn't even got a patent on the rear view mirror. This licence only runs to June 25. If Magna's solution is the right one (logic would dictate it is for any volume OEM) it will have to renew the licence at considerably more than the US 17.5m back in Oct 22 or just buy the business.
There are other competitors, but I find it comforting that the principal tier 1's and semi-conductor companies have gone with SEE.
Lot of punters in this stock who came in via two recent tips in newspapers, who were expecting more news near term. That hot money is now exiting.
Compared to all its other competitors SEE is the only one that gives real world numbers to work on, with an actual order book. What happens in world macro economics is out of everyone's control, but I think SEE will be one of the survivors. |
Nice post. Reflection period |
Not for anyone here to persuade you either way-that decision is yours,& as we are all aware,AIM has been a very poor market over the last couple of years! I will explain why I remain-
1)Paul & Martin reiterated FY24 guidance on 18/3 , ie for revenues of $66.30m,with an increased cash balance based on destocking of G2 units & a substantial reduction in monthly cost
2)They continue to expect cash flow break even later this calender year
3)Our contract with VW started last month which should increase our Q4 KPIs & Q3 should be positive ( if we remain on target to meet FY24 revenue forecasts
4)Paul continues to expect us to win 40% share of the overall Auto market & more by value as ours is a premium product compared to some of the competition
5)Aviation is apparently progressing well towards our first commercial contracts via Collins & they should be sticky long term contracts
6)Collaborations with organisations like FORS ( & others) should ensure a steady increase in G3 installations & monitoring & if we Pauls expectation of 25% growth is steady , if achieved, rather than exponential ( which some of us hoped for )
7) Like many I invested far too early & have averaged down over the years but if we really are very close to the inflection point where we go from loss making to being profitable ,there is a good chance that our share price will rerate - once proven & it would kill me to see our share price increase towards the Stifel target if I bailed at our current share price
8) Paul bought 500k+ shares following results & although I would have preferred to see Martin & other Directors/Pdmrs buying too, £20k is a bit more than a token investment to comfort stakeholders
I am mindful that Paul has missed targets previously, & ambitious targets previously have been managed down & we are in a fast moving market & we never know what the competition may be up to or indeed the OEMs,most of whom have their own in house tech departments-so clearly our share price may be weak for reasons other than AIM market malaise.
Having been here this long I am prepared to remain invested & see how the next few months unfold while appreciating that if we do miss the near term expectations the Market will be unforgiving.
Good luck with whatever decision you make |
Tempted to press the button here and take my loss Anyone persuade me not to |
3 year low now, I thought this was a growth stock! |
Nico: not when the director buys are at rock bottom prices and their idea of a good exit / selling price is potentially a lot lower than long suffering shareholders that believed all the hype over the years. |
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