Secure Property Developm... Share Discussion Threads

[1littlefish] 30/5/2015 19:36

if 38p is right...what is a fair share price wrt that ?

...two problems being
- that the Ukraine land assets dont produce any income..and gteed imo not to be saleable or developable for X yrs.....need say 1 yr without any bullets before ppl even start poking their heads up again in bld sector imo...and Russia/Ukraine situation cld go on for yrs....and if Russian tanks parked on Crimea border...international investors are unlikely to want to invest 1 cent in things like logistics parks imo...

- looks like the running costs and also interest costs eat up shed loads of the income....1.5M op. LOSS last yr in reality once remove the accounting 'gain from buying below mkt price'

You been holding since 70-80p in 2013 when you created this thread ?
You buying more at mkt price of 31-32p ?

Only 1 director made a small buy at lower price...despite all the corporate actions....not a +ve signal imo...

[russman] 30/5/2015 19:09

I started this BB if you don't like it - Start your own one. Using their asset values (?) I estimate current NTAV per share @ 38p.

[1littlefish] 30/5/2015 18:38

deferred expenses are classified as a current assets....

2ME in note 18

ah...dont you just love the accounts in the property sector...!!

(for most people as expense is an expense....and is of course not an asset...

How much could you sell abill for 1M pnds of expenses for ?
...of course no one would pay you anything for such an 'asset' !

most ppl would classify it as a liability....of 1M ...that you have to pay....you could then argue about whether it should be billed in 2014 or 2015...and whether it should be included in the P & L numbers....if add 2M to the existing real loss of around 1.5ME youd get 3.5ME, ouch !, perhaps thats why they 'deferred' it !))

[1littlefish] 30/5/2015 18:24

cut.....got that data wrong...

[1littlefish] 30/5/2015 16:29

Brovary. Ukraine.

NAV 5.6.
NAV at end of 2013 was 8.
reduction in NAV in 2014 was 2.4ME (in reality it was phps more)

2 more yrs like 2014 and the NAV in Brovary would be almost 0.
(5.6- 2.4-2.4 = 0.8 ME)

And co. has stated it is reducing the rents in Ukraine due to the economic problems of its clients....(who have leases for years in to the future and international cos.....so....it must be really bad for SPDI to be willing to help them)

if you reduce rents...then the value of the asset...surprise surprise...reduces..

and even if you pay the valuation man extra....I dont think even he can avoid reducing the valuation number !!

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The company was excessively geared in 2014.....and excessively exposed to Ukraine....
and needed cash raisings to then invest in other countries to save the co.

so
why the hell is the co. investing in GREECE !!
which could fall over at any moment....if it leaves the Euro then everyone expects all property values to CRASH !!....since the new currency is expected to show a massive devaluation wrt the euro...

and with the Govt. desperate for any cash....maybe it imposes new taxes on anything it can think of....in order to pay for doctors etc....which could include taxes on owners of property....easy target surely ?..and if they hit overseas investors...not Greeks, theyd be delighted perhaps...

[1littlefish] 30/5/2015 16:01

ah...didums !...someone stolen your dummy !..there there...

[bckttsim] 30/5/2015 13:49

Why why why why why That's all your saying whyI ask why, your a hell of a deramper Look if you don't like what you see don't fill this board with your dribble Don't invest Go away and do this to another board

[russman] 30/5/2015 08:37

I would treat some of the current asset values with caution. Their revaluations "upwards" are subjective.
There was a share consolidation about 2010/11.

[1littlefish] 29/5/2015 22:32

"24 January 2013, the Company announces that it has raised $17.05 million (approximately GBP10.8 million), before expenses, via a placing of 14,568,842 new ordinary shares of EUR0.01 each in the capital of the Company (the "Placing Shares") to new and existing investors at GBP0.74 per Placing Share (the "Placing Price"). "

to have 26M shares


74p !!

and in 2015 a similar order of magnitude of new shares....
at

25p !!


This Greek MD Lambos is clearly on a roll !!
..same MD did both cash raisings !!...

surely one day....no one will be willing to offer up any more money !!
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I see that adviser was Liberum ...and now it is share price Angels...
...small/tiny advisors I think....not exactly Fincapp or someone a bit more respected..
and previously Seymour pierce as well..fined by fsa in the past...and another Nomad as welll.....>= 4 Nomads in past..not good sign...

keep changing advisors...not good sign imo..


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and clearly looking at the share premium account and accumulated losses for almost 50ME .....there have been a lot more shares issued in the past.....a consolidation or something has taken place along the way ...deferred shares...I havent found that yet...

[1littlefish] 29/5/2015 22:23

Duplicate

if anyone can generate realistic accounts....and realistic data for LTV using realistic values for assets in Ukraine...

win a prize I think...

(I think the accounts are....not true.. ..as per prev. posts....but that doesnt necessarily mean the real position is bad...or good !)

(hey...show me any accounts for property cos. for Eastern Europe which are true !! (or mining cos or .....) ...Ive seen various with high claimed NAV...and months later they are de-listed and bust )


(PHU example worries me....for example....solid NAV....solid income....but the manager and staff fees are nuts (to collect rental income the manager charges 30% I recall !, 30% !, and maybe paid by bank transfer to the manager !)...and shareholders get 0....and their prop. values going no where.....shareholders put up the cash....and each year the manager and staff put the yearly income in to their pockets...shareholders dont even get a div !! year after year.....the manager listed the co....a con from day 1 imo...)

Eastern Europe
been a nightmare for property company investors.
..while dirs. and co. brokers have done nicely...

[duplicate book] 29/5/2015 21:39

Seriously though...........you make some very valid points, that are well explained throughout those posts. Be interesting to see if you get any sort of come back from some of those who know this Company far better than I. Will wait and see.

[duplicate book] 29/5/2015 21:34

So,1littlefish..........you going to buy a few on monday morning then or what ;o))

[1littlefish] 29/5/2015 21:00

3.8 Borrowing costs

imho ..again false accounting...

[1littlefish] 29/5/2015 20:54

Diluted NAV.....2012 =2.01 E.....2013 =1.17E....2014 =0.84....

and in 2015 a shed load of new shares at 25p...

so NAV at end of 2015 ...to be loyal to the sequence...will again be lower !!

You couldnt make it up !

And in return for such stunning performance it looks like the dirs. get 8-10% of the company !! (diff. between diluted and non-diluted data)

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accumulated losses 49ME !!....arghhh !
and really its higher ...since real NAV is lower than the claimed values (Ukraine....half it ?...16ME less ?)...imho...

[1littlefish] 29/5/2015 20:45

the biggest director shareholding is 76k pnds worth...

when various of the dirs. have been in finance world for years...

clearly they have not been tempted to put their hard earned cash in !

[1littlefish] 29/5/2015 20:37

I see one land asset in Ukraine ..of 27 hectares...is in the Russian controlled area imo...

kiss that goodbye imho..

anyone volunteer to knock on Putins door and ask him for compensation !...not me !

while valuation reduction is 20% for Ukraine assets....I dont believe it....not the ppl that were only willing to pay 25p for new shares...

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imho without the big share issue at 25p...the co. perhaps could not have issued a 'going concern notice'...and hence the cash raising before the accounts were issued...

[1littlefish] 29/5/2015 20:21

wheres the income gone ?...

at time of acquisitions in late 2014...it was stated that NOI was running at 8ME

yet now...after more acquisitions in 2015...the NOI is only 8.2ME !

if they make yet another wadge of acquisitions....will the NOI still be at 8ME !