Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[chrisdgb] 05/1/2024 08:03

Looking interesting, being walked up, deal must be close........

[neo26] 04/1/2024 21:37

C9nsidering the past few weeks you couldnt sell any now on little volume the mm's moving it up.Do the mm's know.The deal will be close and i expect to citix offtake agreement to follow shortly afterward.Look at AGL today it could happen here, 150% in a day. Mkt cap 8m and conpany sell one asset for around 12m. That will attract attention.

[winnet] 04/1/2024 17:29

Very strange flurry there. Not much volume it must be said. Let's hope and pray its the start on an upward correction. Hopefully in advance of news. Steady away upwards.

[neo26] 04/1/2024 16:50

Near the end buying above the ask.

[neo26] 04/1/2024 16:41

Lol UT if 100 shares to keep share price down.

[neo26] 04/1/2024 16:26

Hello whats going on is winnet getting back in officially.. :)

[neo26] 04/1/2024 15:28

On low volume moving up now, imho the nomads would have had a sniff.Lets see.

[littlened] 03/1/2024 16:43

Roman,I dont think there are any 'big boys'invested in SDX,dealings have been small for a long time.
As for liquidity SDX only problem has been the inability to repatriate funds from Egypt.When and if this deal goes through there will be no cash flow problem as SDX will be able to repatriate all the sale proceeds.The cash pile in Egypt could be substantial as well as the other assets and at an interest rate of 20% will go a long way to counter any devaluation of the Egyptian pound

[chrisdgb] 03/1/2024 16:02

I think for anyone that has been involved in corporate deals they will know the complexities and legals means there are so many moving parts.........

[winnet] 03/1/2024 16:00

Thanks, Roman. I too am living in hope, not expectation.

btw - "a bloke from a bank who knows how to calculate a PE ratio" PMSL!

[roman2325] 03/1/2024 15:47

Winnet - for good order I agree with your current assessment.

Problem with the Citic deal (and I work in this sector) is that everyone know's SDX is struggling for financing - ALL small caps are struggling for financing. So when SDX (A N Other) ask you for pre-payment you take them to the cleaners knowing full well you are the only option they have. There are no friends in this business I win you lose. And like you point out they might well not make anything out of it.

And I do not give the new BOD a pass just because they are new. There is no logic in that at all. There is a massive difference between an oil exec with 30 years experience, and a bloke from a bank who knows how to calculate a PE ratio.

As stated many times they need to find something in the ground in order for this to grow. I am annoyed that we have not heard more on the Egypt biz - it just shows how green they are. If this goes sub 3 I am selling. As mentioned before if the big guys are selling (they have been for months - they've on the offer all day long) it is for a reason.

Thankfully my BP & Shell are making money but I living in hope on this at the moment

[neo26] 03/1/2024 13:42

Lets give the new board a chance.Last year the share price fell from 10p as we were told sdx was having difficulty taking cash out of egypt due to dollar issue. The share price collapsed it will recover once the egyptian asset is disposed.

[winnet] 03/1/2024 13:02

Traders will jump in just get in before them.

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like, 4 years before them?

[winnet] 03/1/2024 12:49

Remarks below.

1.We dont know the details of the offtake so you cant say they are not good value for SDX.

2. Why do you think the deal will not happen ? the Heads of Terms shows intent and there is no suggestion yet that the deal will not proceed.

3.No reason to say this unless the Egypt deal does not happen

4.CEO is very experienced in corporate finance and BOD cannot buy shares while they have priveleged information

----

1. Okay, point taken but the opposite is also accurate. I am not saying they are poor value, i am speculating they may be...
2. I don't think it won't happen, but i am merely just pointing out the fact that BOD said it would happen and it hasn't yet happened. Hence some hiccups obvs!
3. Still, its a valid reason!
4. Point taken, could be in a closed period. But hes been in post a while now and still no purchases.

[winnet] 03/1/2024 12:45

I don't think they would have had to inform the market "by now". They can inform the market whenever they like!

I also don't know if the deals are good or bad, and neither do you, I was just speculating as to why the share price is 3.75p! I am fully aware of how big Citic are. It has no real bearing on anything, however.

You and I Neo, have been wrong, and are currently wrong, relating to our assessment of SDX. I assume i am more wrong than you! However, neither of us has made any money in this share for years unless you're the world's best trader, which I am not [you may be, but if you are there are far better shares to trade actvily]. So let's bottle some pride and see where we're going wrong... [Look at the 1-year and 2-year graphs on this thing!]

I'm just reviewing my entire folio and it's the boring large businesses I have not been bullish on which tend to outperform, my AIM conviction plays [SDX, JSE, SQZ and BCE] are all getting royally shafted!

[littlened] 03/1/2024 12:39

1.We dont know the details of the offtake so you cant say they are not good value for SDX.

2. Why do you think the deal will not happen ? the Heads of Terms shows intent and there is no suggestion yet that the deal will not proceed.

3.No reason to say this unless the Egypt deal does not happen

4.CEO is very experienced in corporate finance and BOD cannot buy shares while they have priveleged information

[neo26] 03/1/2024 12:36

How do you know the offtakes are bad deal, citix recently opened another factory in kenitra now have 3. They desperately need gas. The company hold over 1 trillion worth of assets.We can now safely assume the deal will go through as by now sdx would have had to inform the mkt that the buyer has pulled out.Still maintain around 8m-10m pounds will be sale price.Both will happen this month. Imho

[winnet] 03/1/2024 11:54

because i am sad old man i have been reading through some of our old posts. The first thing to say is most of us believe that this business is worth considerably more than 8 million GBP. The question I was seeking to answer is why have we seen a large seller offloading down here based on whatever liquidity there is and why they think differently from the few PI's posting on this board [and the rest of the market]

Clearly, there is no interest in buying cheap businesses and selling them for more later. Why?

my conclusions in 4 broad categories...

1. Offtake agreements with an upfront gas fee for the Chinese are poor value and not going to make net profit. [No price has been disclosed]
- related to the above, Morrocco's prospectivity is poor. The market thinks more OPEX for little return - as history has shown. IE> SDX is fundamentally just a loss maker...
2. The Egypt deal will not happen, or not happen within a time frame that necessitates an equity raise.
3. Some form of dilution is coming to further shaft LTH's.
4. Mgt are young and inexperienced and have no skin in the game other than a set of options which we shareholders pay for anyway... [where are the personal buys from the new MD, for example].

Thoughts?

[chrisdgb] 28/12/2023 08:44

First doubler of 24'............?

[roman2325] 19/12/2023 20:01

Appreciated - thank you :)

[winnet] 19/12/2023 16:20

Do you agree Neo?

[neo26] 19/12/2023 16:01

Looks like winnet bought back in today.

[winnet] 19/12/2023 13:55

Roman, I've been investing on AIM for almost 20 years now... never have i seen such poor liquidity generally and never in O&G in particular. The reasons?

The energy transition means most IIs, unless you operate specialist vehicles, are divesting. We've seen this. There is also super low liquidity and generally larger volatility as a result. There is less and less paid and non-paid coverage as a result... tell me the last time you read an independent report on these businesses... They just don't get funded because there are not enough punters to make it worthwhile.
The knock-on effect is that your average PI has been fleeced so many times that now there is just no appetite for buying and holding [yes, how quaint and old-fashioned!] .. now they just stick their cash in an all-share EFT or some form of composite investment, rather than choosing individual stocks. Nick Train got it wrong, so the fact is that many of us kid ourselves that we can outperform the market, but the fact is we can't. So, the answer to your question is that a large portion of underperformance in AIM O&G is structural and in the case of SDX it is structural and corporate.

Now. Given all of that, why am I here... There are certain businesses where the discount to NAV is so large that they are at risk of being taken out by private equity. This is one of those cases. I do not believe the market will ever again fairly value AIM O&G shares. Full stop.

Happy Christmas!

[neo26] 19/12/2023 13:40

Egypt have those problems and the share price totally collapsed when they said they couldnt get dollars out of egypt and they relied on those profits from their.However once the divest whatever the price we can close that chapter.Interest will come once they actually confirm the sale. Mkt will take note.Looking like it maybe new year now, i wonder why its taking long. Maybe company should give update why its taking time? Large operator the money involved will be peanuts.