Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[captain james t kirk] 09/1/2019 14:30

Didn't we highlight some time back that the question marks were, reserves, gas price in Egypt, Egypt receivables and exploration success primarily of SD. The oil there would be a massive bonus, the cherry on the cake.

[shakeypremis] 09/1/2019 13:58

Bushranger, some fair points there. You are right about reserves being quite low, this is somewhat mitigated by SDX's track record with the drillbit and the prospectivity of South Disouq. However, if SDX can't monetise these finds then it's all for naught. I really want to see them get SD online and fast! They will hopefully drill for oil this year, lets see what they find.

[haideralifool] 09/1/2019 13:56

shakey, the bit about the 'everything here was already known' I am not so sure about. Some of the more optimistic forecasts that people have thrown around have ignored the almost continuous capex that Morocco needs. Now the LM wells could change that, but right now it's not a certainty.

And while realised gas prices in Morocco are very good, SDX is not selling into some fungible gas distribution network - it's basically a gas distributor in its own right, with the risks etc. that that entails.

I've not sold out, but certainly the last year has been an eye-opener in terms of how the SDX story is not all that it is sometimes cracked up to be.

[bushranger] 09/1/2019 13:40

A fair question Shakey. I guess some of the risks/ downside to SDX has always been known. Their field of operations are always going to be at least medium risk. Others however have become more apparent (to me at least) as time has gone by. The limited lifespan of the gas wells, while not the same degree as shale, means SDX is going to have to keep drilling which chews up CAPEX.It is great SDX does not have to dilute to acheive this but neither is cash pile growing. This had become more apparent and it is like SDX is running to stand still. Which could also be a metaphor for the share price! SDX really need a big find and preferably oil. SDX is better than most AIM oilers, but for me the risk was starting to outweigh reward. Successful drills last year saw little impact on share price , any negative news and I dread to think. These are simply my own reasons and I am by no means any expert. Far from it.

[shakeypremis] 09/1/2019 12:45

"Short lifespan of small reserves, unstable region, delayed objectives, falling cash, all point to the opposite that this is as 'cheap as chips'"

Everything here was already previously known, apart from the delay to SD and Morocco ramp up. You can't have sold out just because of the delays? Granted, if the delays continue I will have to reconsider my position.

[bushranger] 09/1/2019 08:37

After almost two years of ups and downs and SDX being my largest holding I sold out over last month or two. This stock has never got the attention of the market, at least not to the extent it should if the promoters such as MGW would have us believe. Short lifespan of small reserves, unstable region, delayed objectives, falling cash, all point to the opposite that this is as 'cheap as chips' Personally I am glad to see the back of SDX. Having said that I wish no ill on those who continue to hold both shares and the faith.

[quemaster] 08/1/2019 20:22

Having to go public on the potential BP deal followed by it all falling through didn't help.

[tournesol] 08/1/2019 14:52

Hi Shakey

I'm not sure that "the market did sell SDX off" to any great extent. I don't think there is a large body of institutional shareholders and I'm not sure there has been a very significant volume of trades. I tend to think that the price action has resulted from an absence of buyers rather than a mass of sellers. And I think that some of that situation is likely to result from the inept management of news relating to SD.

My first foray into SDX was based on very positive statements made by PW. When it emerged that reality lagged some distance behind the rhetoric I sold. After some time had passed I returned to the fold thinking that events had caught up with promises. As TGG says above PW still seems to be a little too quick to promise and a little too slow to deliver.

I'm still hanging on for things to come right and indeed I topped up just before last week's welcome blip. But I must say that PW would do better to dial back his optimism.

All that having been said, I agree with you that the overall negative market sentiment has undercut all stocks whether they deserved it or not.

[darola] 08/1/2019 14:36

Shocking from a CEO really....

[shakeypremis] 08/1/2019 14:25

You are right. PW must have known way ahead of time that SD wouldn't be online by year end but he decided to say it would be for some reason.

[thegreatgeraldo] 08/1/2019 14:21

With some half decent PR, the company could have managed the S Disouq delay in a professional manner, that's all I'm saying.

[shakeypremis] 08/1/2019 14:05

I wasn't saying it categorically wasn't because of the delay, I was just saying it might not have been. It's of course impossible to say. Your tax loss selling idea is also quite possibly a contributory factor.

[thegreatgeraldo] 08/1/2019 13:03

shakeypremis
8 Jan '19 - 12:49 - 7316 of 7316

but to think the market sold SDX off because SD was delayed is a little too much I think.

..I don't. A few weeks before the S Disouq delay was announced, Welch was telling punters it was going live on 28th December. (end of November/early December on overactive directors).

Also, I think the Canadian tax year follows the calendar? So selling to book a loss, then buying back for the new tax year?

[shakeypremis] 08/1/2019 12:49

Tournesol, you are right that of course SDX isn't particularly exposed to the price of oil but to think the market sold SDX off because SD was delayed is a little too much I think. The market is not rational and despite the fact SDX isn't massively exposed to oil price fluctuations doesn't mean the market didn't sell it off due to the fall in oil price.

[tournesol] 08/1/2019 12:46

And a total Risked valuation = 99.6p/share.

So either way we have scope for 100% upside without any further explo sucess.

Given the lack of exposure to POO, I have to think that the reason for recent price weakness - apart from general market malaise - is simply caution over the delay at SD.

Once that's sorted out, hopefully we should see some progress PDQ.

[shakeypremis] 08/1/2019 11:30

Valuing SDX core NAV at 83.6p/share.

[potential] 07/1/2019 11:19

Wait for the real profit £1+ :)

[darola] 07/1/2019 10:14

Profit taking - was always likley when the surge stalled.

[thegreatgeraldo] 04/1/2019 17:33

I was quite pleased with my Fleetwood Mac ;-#))

[captain james t kirk] 04/1/2019 17:22

Spoil sport and I quite liked your Fleetwood Mac:)

[thegreatgeraldo] 04/1/2019 17:05

JOG..... surprisingly little.... next!

[captain james t kirk] 04/1/2019 16:59

Good evening tournesol :)
Just my tongue in cheek observation that we now live in an age of regions of least political instability rather than your description.
However, it was interesting to read the divergence of views on O&G company valuations. So, as it's the weekend, trading has closed and with due apologies, I'm going to indulge myself with this exercise. It will be interesting to see the ranger of answers, if any.
N.Sea with plenty of near by infrastructure.
Capex and Opex of $31 over the project lifecycle, with results of an upcoming appraisal well due in 3-4 months time max.
Approximately £10 million in the bank after appraisal. Roughly a 5th share in the project with major partners.
Volume parameters of 25 MMbls, 69MMbls and 130 MMbls. Clearly, much easier to value than SDX.
What's it worth folks.

[wisteria2] 04/1/2019 15:27

About time yaaaaaaaawwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!

[ifthecapfits] 04/1/2019 15:07

On a bit of a tear today.

[tournesol] 04/1/2019 15:05

Hello Capt Kirk

what exactly are you disagreeing with?