Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[shakeypremis] 18/12/2018 09:54

Plentymorefish, at the moment, SDX derive a big portion of their profits from oil in Egypt. Once they get SD online, that will change.

[darola] 18/12/2018 09:44

General market downterm, plus the “big” news on SD is not expected for 6 months, so folk either moving to cash or another option.

I remain confident that at anytime SDX could announce M&A activity, and still think from PWs last words that the BP deal could still happen.

[plentymorefish] 18/12/2018 09:43

I thought SDX was geared more towards 'gas' and that it sells it on 5 year fixed priced deals in the main?

[shakeypremis] 18/12/2018 09:42

Bottom could *potentially* be somewhere in the mid-high 20's. It seems inconceivable but that is where the Canadian chart directs me. Maybe low 30's.

Escapetohome, this sell off is sector wide, it's the oil price mostly. It could also be some big players selling out because they believe/know a recession is beginning/has already begun and the oil price will fall further.

[escapetohome] 18/12/2018 09:05

Havent been following this one, so not sure on bottom.

Each time i look its lower.

Morocco , concentrated assets in one country?

Politics?

[plentymorefish] 18/12/2018 08:44

Where's the bottom for this one?

[shakeypremis] 11/12/2018 13:38

To be honest I am also not sure whether the condensate production is extra revenue for SDX or whether it is included in the price they get for gas. I remember PW saying that he thought they would get US$2.85/mscf due to the quality of gas they would produce. Does that 'quality' refer to included condensates or simply the quality of the natural gas produced? I don't know.

[shakeypremis] 11/12/2018 13:21

Darola, it's an increase to the amount of liquids and condensates that SD will produce. Not quite sure how much more it will be but it must be noteworthy.

I can't remember if modifications are being made to handle more gas once more discoveries are made though.

I think SD will generate the following in revenues and profits;

50mmscf/d @ US$2.65/mscf = US$132,000/day gross revenue or about US$45,000,000/year (340 operations per year)

US$45,000,000 x WI (55%) = US$24,800,000/year revenue after WI interest deduction

US24,800,000 x thieving Egyptian Government 'share' (50%) = US$12,400,000/year ECONOMIC INTEREST revenue

So that's just over US$1m extra revenue per month that SD will generate for SDX. Now I realise I haven't included the liquids in this but I seem to remember that the predicted rate of 600 barrels of condensate per day, this would only net SDX around another US$1m in extra profit per year. Now if the number of barrels of condensate goes up SIGNIFICANTLY from 600 per day then this might get very interesting but how much more could it be than 600? Surely no more than even double? We haven't been told yet but I am sure PW would be crowing about it if it was significantly more than the predicted 600. So perhaps with the extra condensate production (whatever that number is) SDX will get roughly another US$12m/year in additional profit from South Disouq.

[darola] 11/12/2018 12:34

An extra 4.6k a day coming online in H1. That’s >$3m a month.

This is a given. It doesn’t need to be discovered, it’s in the ground waiting for us to extract. The reason we have a delay from the expected Q4 2018 is so they can increase the capacity - this is an absolute positive.

[phowdo] 11/12/2018 11:22

The directors here prefer to award themselves options rather than actually risking their own capital. That way they get to enjoy any upside but dont suffer any downside.
Heads they win. Tails you lose.

[darola] 11/12/2018 11:05

Some director buys would be good...

[matchmade] 11/12/2018 09:43

It will now fall below 40p. ;-)

[neo26] 11/12/2018 09:11

It wont fall below 40p.

[darola] 11/12/2018 08:44

Tiny sells. Guess it’s board rainbow chasers moving on. Will be quiet here for a while and can see the share price drifting. Turn it off and come back in 6 months.

[deanroberthunt] 11/12/2018 08:37

WTF! is ganning on with this!!!

[matchmade] 10/12/2018 15:20

Good to remain positive when the share price decline is so relentless, but here might these surprises come from? There's no new drilling planned until late Q3 2019, which leaves new 3D and confirmation of the hookup of SD gas and maybe some new Moroccan customers in H1 2019. I'd hardly call SD earnings 'priced in' at this level of share price, but that's the main add-on for the next 6 months, and hardly a surprise

Unless you mean a TO, on what evidence I've no idea?

[darola] 10/12/2018 12:39

Added a few more today. Crazy price down here. I’m expected some nice surprises from SDX over the next 6 months...

[the drewster] 08/12/2018 10:12

PW could not have been any clearer. No more debt and no more equity - everything to be funded within existing cash flow

[brasso3] 08/12/2018 09:30

I am viewing the delay to SD production as a blessing. I want to increase my position here and the delay give mes that opportunity. I will be doubling up in January at these prices if possible.

[darola] 06/12/2018 17:49

Good day today compared to the wider market.

[shakeypremis] 06/12/2018 11:03

PW did just say in that recent interview with the Oil Walrus that they would be funding all capex from internal cashflows. The only time they would raise is for inorganic stuff, ie an acquisition.

[tournesol] 06/12/2018 07:26

The $10m credit facility is ring fenced - it can only be used in Morocco, so will not be usable for SD.