Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[rapiddave] 02/3/2017 14:05

This was no ordinary placing. It added value multiples of the cost. That's why the share price has reratedPeople take profit at each stage as is natural. It's up to each individual to decide what to do, whenFact is that is a very well run company with plenty of free cash flow, no debt and substantial production increasing opportunities in the immediate termIn every company maintenance is ongoing although workovers are infrequent and value adding (and costs paid in £E)

[orinocor] 02/3/2017 13:56

I think you guys are underestimating the central costs and the costs of all these work programmes. Some of these wells are depleting and quite a bit of money will be required to keep them pumping at the same rate.


Not surprisingly some people banking profits after the astonishing rise in the share price since the placing at 30p. It's always very risky piling in after an enormous rise like we've seen with SDX.

[deltrotter] 02/3/2017 05:46

Tx someuwin

[soulsauce] 01/3/2017 22:29

Yes nasnas, quite a disconnect with that price target too so definitely some catching up to do with such a high profile drill on the horizon.
Should be nearer 60p me thinks for starters.

[nasnas1] 01/3/2017 22:09

Closed up 1.4% on TSX we have some catching up to do here. Mark up tomorrow. ..

[someuwin] 01/3/2017 21:56

1st March 2017 - Sdx Energy SDX Cantor Fitzgerald 'Buy' Target 78.00 Reiterates.

[sja123] 01/3/2017 15:23

Cheers tournesol....yes, agree...transportation costs must increase with extra quantity, that would appear to be wrong...

As you say also, p/e not the best guide, however, he may have been swayed to use that measure as the Shares mag post in the header of this thread also uses that metric...ie "at 38.23p trading on a mere 1.9 forecast earnings for the year to January 2018"

Having said all that, I have seen many professional notes written in a far more slapdash way....

Its certainly a good place to start for anyone interested in SDX and, as always, nothing written or posted on a BB should be taken for granted....no problem with the points you raise...valid imo...

[sja123] 01/3/2017 15:11

Nick, Cash....yes indeed, further data processing is ongoing and we may well have more info on this prior to spud.....all very exciting.....

Unofficially, COS in this sort of structure has proven to be very high....although I doubt they would say as much....best to under promise and over achieve...which the market loves....

[tournesol] 01/3/2017 15:08

SJA123

thanks for the link to that excellent summary/overview which is a very good note to file and which I have saved for my archives.

I do not wish to nit pick - it's an excellent note and it's good of you to post it here and I am appreciative and grateful - but I think it is wrong on a couple of details - one of fact and one of logic. They are not critical but I think it worth pointing them out.

Firstly I do not believe the author is correct when he/she says that the gas transport costs relating to the post-acquisition 50% share of the asset at NW Gemsa will be the same as the costs previously paid for transporting the pre-acquisition 10%. I think that is a mishearing/misunderstanding of what was said in the CEO interview. I think that the CEO said there would be no requirement for additional staff or overhead costs - but he did not say that the additional gas would cost nothing to transport. It simply makes no sense.

Secondly the idea that P/E ratios can be used to compare the valuation of 2 oil companies is fundamentally flawed. They can't. P/E ratios tells you nothing whatever about the relative value of an oil company (or a miner) and for that reason are never used by anyone in the oil industry or involved in stock analysis in this sector. I could go on to explain why this is but I do not want to teach you to suck eggs.

I'm not saying the above to nit pick or to carp but rather to promote constructive discussion.

T

[cashandcard] 01/3/2017 14:43

sja,

Yes, PW explains in one of his interviews, the bloke in their team who previously worked with Apache (who have a very successful exploration record in Egypt) noticed those Western Desert oil-bearing formations were present at a deeper levels, and they 'appeared to be within closure'.

Its an exciting well to say the least.

Cash

[deltrotter] 01/3/2017 14:40

and an increased price target from the broker as well I expect Nick....

[effiert] 01/3/2017 14:40

o/t AST 5-6p this month. GAS producer as of THIS month!

[nick2412] 01/3/2017 14:36

sja, thanks for that, I think they still are still doing further data processing on the 3D seismic which should (if they release the information prior to spudding) give a revised (increased) COS for South Disouq.

[sja123] 01/3/2017 14:06

For anyone who hasn't seen it, Paul's interview with Malcy explains the lead up to the impending drill in good detail....

[apad] 01/3/2017 13:36

Tried to increase FARN, but it ran away from me, so topped up here again at 48.5p.
Hey Ho
apad

[captain james t kirk] 01/3/2017 13:30

Four-way dip: A structural feature seen on orthogonal seismic lines to dip away in all four possible directions, closure indicating that any hydrocarbons beneath a sealing stratum will be trapped in this feature.

[sja123] 01/3/2017 13:10

Nick2412.....3D seismic already done for this drill....and the reason they were able to identify the oil in the deeper horizons below the gas....and why oil majors were showing an interest in farming in...:-)

Apparently it shows a "four way dip closure".....whatever that means!...

"Strong 3d data showing up “bright spots” at fault locations. This is significant because within the historic trend when a 3d survey has
had conformable bright spot at the fault locations the past historic success rate has been 90% which signifies a very high COS.
This new 3d seismic data has gathered a lot of interested from some big local oil majors in the area who are interested in farm in. Paul
Welch has now stated that he doesn’t wish to farm in as they are in a solid financial position as it is, however their partner may do"

The above is from a note on SDX put together by a private individual who posts as Early Bird....it's extremely comprehensive considering its not professional research. I have linked it below...



Please research for yourself....but it looks good to me...

All IMO etc

[trulyscrumptious] 01/3/2017 12:35

Snap!!! I was just about to post that soulsauce!

[soulsauce] 01/3/2017 12:28

From Malcy today:-

SDX Energy
A South Disouq update from SDX today, the Sino-Tharwa 6 drilling rig is currently being moved to location with the expected commencement of drilling ‘within the next fortnight’. Exciting times for SDX who have a number of high margin plays with serious upside that should justify the ever rising share price.

[captain james t kirk] 01/3/2017 12:16

I also believed it was a total free carry but it is indeed a free carry up to $3 million.
However, I note that they anticipate the drill, now targeting both the gas and the deeper lying oil prospect, should come in at $3.54 million. I'm not sure if the extra $540,000 is split 55/45 but logically it should be. I'll probably give them a bell later for clarification.
Some good images also on this link on pages 24 & 25:
www.sdxenergy.com/~/media/Files/S/Seadragon-Corp/presentations/2017%20January%20SDX%20Deal%20Presentation%20Final%20Website.pdf

[nick2412] 01/3/2017 11:56

sja - precisely right and a convenient use of the Egyptian pound receivables. Other parties have wanted to farm-in which would of course more than cover the $1m extra cost but SDX have declined. One of those rare 'minimal risk / high reward' opportunities that don't come around very often.

I assume SDX will release the seismic data covering SD before spudding but I'm not entirely sure on that.

[someuwin] 01/3/2017 11:49

Thanks sja - point noted.

[sja123] 01/3/2017 11:39

Looks like Hybridan has some comment out this morning...it's on Vox but not available to private individuals.....