Sdl Share Discussion Threads

[flyfisher] 04/10/2007 11:55

from the td waterhouse website, the current earnings forecasts from investec and landisbanki vary considerably

investec pt 15.9m eps 16.0 p
landisbanki pt 11.8m eps 16.4 p

any ideas why the difference at the pre tax level ?

[spaceparallax] 02/10/2007 11:32

Had thought we were on the up again, but we seem to be feeling around for firm support once more. Frustrating.

[wjccghcc] 20/9/2007 16:04

Fair enough but SDL's UK revenues are only around 7% of the total. The US and Europe are equal weighting at about 40% of revenues each. In any case, I view SDL as being more about increased globalisation than being tied to any particular economy. If your domestic economy is sagging you're going to look to exporting your products and that means localisation of language.

[john hampton] 20/9/2007 15:51

I sold my last chunk of these at around 400p some time ago. I have watched the decline & with the CEO selling and the UK facing difficult times I'm not buying back into these unless they fall back to around 250/275p. I'm adding to blue chips generally like VOD, GSK, BP etc

[joshalexander] 19/9/2007 14:49

I have done well on TMN previously.
The issue is that the UK is heading for a marked slowdown in consumer spending, even if Recession is avoided next year, as I think it will be.
So, Small Cap consumer stocks are vunerable to a change in sentiment, if nothing else.

TMN is a very difficult one to call though, the Chart is beginning to look very weak - for me it is only for the brave at this stage.

Regards

[wjccghcc] 19/9/2007 14:38

Thanks Josh. Agreed.

As an aside, I see you're bearish/neutral on TMN yet directors have been buying significant amounts over the last couple of months since the results. I find director's buys/sells work more as an invitation to re-examine your valuation of a company rather than as a trigger to follow them. Having said that, I find director sells in negative cashflow companies more of a concern and may agree with you there.

[woracle] 19/9/2007 14:18

Josh, your thinking is very short termist. Regardless of when markt first bought, I will think he will have called right in 12 months time, 3 year and 5 years from now. Also, if you had done your research , u would have known Lancaster has unloaded before with zero effect. U can't blame him..hes devoted his life to the company and has every right to spend some of it.

[joshalexander] 19/9/2007 14:11

That is a well argued post, there are always exceptions to every rule.
Lets see where the share price is after the next results.

[wjccghcc] 19/9/2007 13:44

Not really. Last time the CEO halved his holding (Mar 06), the shareprice was 220p and look at the growth since. He still has a large stake, as does his wife, and a shedload of options. I think that having spent 10 years building the business up to be a global leader, he's now enjoying some of the rewards - you can hardly begrudge him that.

I've held shares in SFR for 4 years which have increased 400% despite the directors selling 30-50% of their stake each year - in fact one of my best performers in the midcaps!

[joshalexander] 19/9/2007 13:32

woracle

My comments were aimed at markt, who has not been in SDL for the last year, yet alone the last 3 or 5.

And secondly, when the CEO halves his holding - its time to take notice IMO.
Particularly when the $ continues to weaken.



Kindest Regards

[woracle] 19/9/2007 09:21

Josh, you havent done much research I see...I think you will find SDL has outperformed Autonomy over 5 years or more...over 3 and 1 years, its underperformed only in the last few months.

If you think a bit of underperformce when the whole market has been unstable means not calling things correctly, u havent been in this game very long young man..As investors with a longer timeframe than a few months, I would say the long termers have called it 100% correct and it isnt gonna end just cause of a natural market correction. Now stop gloating and come back and tell us we called it wrong this time next year...

[joshalexander] 19/9/2007 08:10

markt

I thought SDL was going to be "the next big thing" - New Automony - LOL.

At least you called Flomerics correctly.

[wjccghcc] 14/9/2007 15:41

11% organic sales growth in H1. This looks to me like a SETSMM overreaction on low volumes. Added at 317.25p.

[markt] 14/9/2007 15:04

...my guess is this share is now best avoided until it starts a positive up trend again.....

could take some time....until further integration of trados and perhaps sales start growing...

[markt] 14/9/2007 12:54

Phew
Got out just in time !

[cr4zyness] 14/9/2007 12:02

Still waiting £3.08?

[woracle] 05/9/2007 20:55

308 ? If only charting was that simple ..e.g when it peaked at 350 earlier this year, and started falling..which chartest could have drawn the line at 308 as the point where it would resume its uptrend . Answer ? probably none.. I'm back in at 353.

[wjccghcc] 05/9/2007 18:26

Well bought back the ones I sold first thing (383p)for 349p. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

[wjccghcc] 05/9/2007 15:26

308p would put them on a PE of 16.5 which seems very cheap for a global leader in a market which is undergoing fundamental expansion with 36% organic profit growth whose forecasts have just been upgraded by 15%. Still, who knows in these markets? I'd probably bet the farm if they got that low.

[mikeelkin] 05/9/2007 15:07

Thanks for your prompt and comprehensive reply wjcchgc. Much appreciated - in view of your comments I will hang on a little longer and see what further unfolds with the share price before entering.

[cr4zyness] 05/9/2007 15:00

Does £3.08 not look like next support as per chart?

[wjccghcc] 05/9/2007 14:57

mike, Before SETSMM it was the marketmakers who controlled the price and would adjust it according to supply and demand from PIs and institutions. There were few automated trades as marketmakers didn't have to deal above the NMS. With SETSMM came the introduction of an order book which allows quantitative trading programs to post their buy and sell offers directly to the order book. Most of these are momentum driven. With a stock of SDL's relatively low liquidity (less than 100k shares traded a day is not uncommon), these quant trading programs tend to be selfulfilling which leads to volatile moves. Happens with quite a few other midsized stocks as well.

I tend to use fundamentals for my core holding here, and then range trade around that. Fundamentally IMHO this is a good entry point with a current year PE of 21 and fwd PE of 19, both likely to be beaten. On the other hand, Lancaster's share sale plus the fact that H1 was so good that H2 will be weaker has created a snowball effect so who know's short-term if the share price will overreact more on the downside.

[mikeelkin] 05/9/2007 14:44

Hello everybody

SDL have been on my watchlist for some months and the drop today looks like a good entry point. I have one question though.

WJCCHGC - Do you know where all the automated trades are originating from and what is it with SETSMM that makes this a particular issue with SDL; are they what has caused the drop today? Would you say that 350 is now a good support?

Thanks

Mike Elkin

[wjccghcc] 05/9/2007 13:02

Automated trades. Thanks to SETSMM it happens quite a lot with SDL. I have a core holding from 250p and then trade around that, buying in the 355-365p range and selling in the 390-400p range. Sold a chunk yesterday and first thing this am, now buying them back.

[woracle] 05/9/2007 11:37

Theres a seller unloading 1000 consistently at a time..