Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 24/7/2021 12:41

I now get it as china A50 index and presumably other chinese indices fell on friday and now in a clear downtrend . So could be a hard time for SMT for a while unless China indices reverse direction . Really bad timing by SMT management as Chinese government clamps down on chinese internet companies according to report in Mail today if they are correct !

[arja] 23/7/2021 19:56

lord loads,
So are you saying that SMT does not react to nasdaq index nowadays or in any meaningful way ? I might be better off trading PCT or even ATT I guess.

[quepassa] 23/7/2021 16:24

Shopify Inc of Canada has gone ballistic.

several new consecutive and recent ALL TIME HIGHS and now through C$2,000.


Consider that 18 months ago, Shopify was C$500.


Shopify is the largest portfolio holding of c. 6.2% of Canadian General Investment Trust which I have mentioned several times in the past.

[arja] 23/7/2021 16:17

a bit surprised that today's bullish market could not support the price - markets often surprise us !!

[sentimental rules] 23/7/2021 15:35

ok harry hindsight

thanks for that

[arja] 23/7/2021 15:24

thanks for interesting comments lord loads . Certainly struggling today after strong move earlier . Being a CFD trader , I exited at 1363 expecting to re-enter if it came off but will now leave it until next week I think .

[lord loads of lolly] 23/7/2021 14:36

arja - As I've posted on another board, if you look at SMT's latest holdings @ 30 06 21, there's an interesting shift of emphasis. This probably explains recent price movement de-coupling from NASDAQ. Of SMT's top 10 holdings, 4 are now Chinese (Tencent 5.1%, Nio 4.2%, Alibaba 3.8% & Meituan 3.7%). Its holding in US-based Amazon was around 10% for a while in 2020. Now it's just 3%. So China's clearly where SMT's managers currently see some high growth potential. And given their past performance, who are we to argue! My only concern is that this is higher risk, especially now the Chinese regulators are clamping down on home-grown tech firms. Sometimes just days after they've debuted on US stock exchanges, resulting in an inevitable sudden drop in share price. Didi being just the latest example in today's news. But Tencent & Alibaba have also been affected by more rigorous scrutiny/control-freakery from Chinese regulators.

[lord loads of lolly] 23/7/2021 14:29

Thanks winski. The article makes some interesting points, though I don't think it fully explains SMT's discount versus the other ITs I mentioned. Perhaps the most relevant thing it highlights is a change of manager. This obviously applies to SMT, with James Anderson retiring next year. Maybe some long term investors are becoming more wary as a result & are cashing in part of their substantial gains, leading to reduced demand & a lowering in price against NAV?

[arja] 23/7/2021 14:29

now in negative territory on day and PCT and ATT still up. Not sure why as nasdaq still doing well but it might change in next minute !

[winski] 23/7/2021 13:21

hxxps://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/why-dont-investment-trust-prices-move-in-line-with-net-asset-value

Recently came across this article which cover topic.

[lord loads of lolly] 23/7/2021 10:43

In terms of why some investment trusts generally trade at a premium, others at a discount, I confess this baffles me. It doesn't seem to bear much relation to long term performance. Lindsell Train has normally traded at eye-watering premiums, which is why I've always avoided it. Pacific Horizon (another of Baillie Gifford's ITs) traditionally trades at a decent premium. Meanwhile SMT is currently trading at a discount, despite outperforming both Lindsell Train & Pacific Horizon over the past 10 years. Even over 5 years, it's outperformed Lindsell Train, though slightly underperformed Pacific Horizon. Yet it's the only one of the three trusts currently trading at a discount. Ours is not to reason why. I don't think it's even related to the perceived risk of each fund. All I can say is if you're considering adding SMT to your portfolio, probably best do it whilst it's still trading at a discount. But all IMHO & DYOR!

[lord loads of lolly] 23/7/2021 10:31

shano2 - You're welcome! I agree about the discount. If you look at the premium/discount charts going back 10 years, SMT's average range was generally between about a 5% premium and a 5% discount. There have been exceptions, notably earlier this year when it went above a 10% discount back in Feb/Mar. But the average for the past 12 months has been a discount of just over 1%. I've used this to trade a small part of my holding, selling when the premium leapt above the norm, buying back in when it dropped to an abnormally high discount in Feb/Mar 21. But of course, there's always a risk you'll sell, only to have to buy back in higher. Or to find you've lost out on potential further gains! So whilst it's satisfying if you call the market right, I'd only suggest doing this with a small part of any holding. History teaches us that the best way to gain from SMT over time is to remain invested.

[quepassa] 22/7/2021 18:29

May 2020 refers re PayPal.

Price then $155.

Price now $303

+100% in 14 months and climbing

[shano2] 22/7/2021 17:41

lord loads of lolly - thanks for the reply. Considering the performance of this trust i find it hard to understand why it trades at a discount when compared to other IT's.

[lord loads of lolly] 22/7/2021 11:48

shano2 - I view this as a positive. Recent buybacks suggest they consider the share price undervalued (which it currently is against NAV). Also provides some stability, reducing volatility. I guess you could argue they'd be better off channelling any spare cash into new opportunities. But maybe they don't see any sufficiently compelling ones right now. Interesting how their holding in Amazon has plummeted. As recently as 2020, it was around 10% for a while. Now "just" 3%.

[shano2] 22/7/2021 11:29

The portfolio on the SMT website has been updated to 30/06/21.

Any thoughts on the 70.7M shares held in treasury.

[quepassa] 22/7/2021 09:02

ASML featured in a positive FT Lex Column today.

Maintain my view that we may see doubling in share price this year to Euro800+. Already up 50% to Euro600 and climbing fast.

ASML is currently ScoMo's fifth largest holding with a 5% portfolio holding.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[arja] 22/7/2021 08:43

doing a bit better today but seems to have lost that explosive quality and not reacting to nasdaq index as it used to .

[sentimental rules] 21/7/2021 15:40

blame brexit

thats what you usually do idiot

[arja] 21/7/2021 14:37

surely SMT should take off soon as sold down after early rise !

[chillpill] 20/7/2021 07:09

Moderna, which is 5% of the portfolio, has risen over 33% since last Monday which a offset the general market pullback.

[arja] 19/7/2021 15:14

plus US indices and especially nasdaq where SMT is concerned .

[dexter1612] 19/7/2021 10:59

Covid related....

[arja] 19/7/2021 10:21

is this the end of the long term bull market for equities ? Highly unlikely but it might happen one day ! But this short term correction might have more legs in it and shorting is best game for a little while .

[arja] 19/7/2021 07:38

epo001,
i bet you change your tune today as probably a bit more downside in the TECH trusts unless nasdaq futures picks up !