Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 02/10/2024 07:01

1.

Alibaba Health Info Technology

PLUS 15% in today's HK session.


and rising


2.

Meituan (ScoMo 2.9% portfolio holding)

PLUS 15% in today's HK session

[lord loads of lolly] 01/10/2024 22:08

I prefer bananas myself. Which is clearly what you are. Filtered.

[quepassa] 30/9/2024 06:44

Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited

(0241:HK)

+30% in today's HK session

[quepassa] 26/9/2024 08:14

Interesting graph on sister-fund Baillie Gifford China Growth.

Ticker LSE:BGCG

[steeplejack] 25/9/2024 16:00

Probably a combination of the two.Given they're playing it long term,this is probably a pretty good time to average their Moderna holding.

[lord loads of lolly] 25/9/2024 15:55

steeplejack - you may be right there. Moderna representing 6.1% of SMT's total would have been as at 30th June (rather than early June).

But even so, MRNA's share price has tanked since then.

It's had quite pronounced peaks & troughs previously. So either SMT's managers think MRNA's currently oversold. Or they can't bear to reduce & lose face. Wonder which?

[steeplejack] 25/9/2024 14:42

SMT have top sliced Nvidia but i don't think they've sold any Moderna.Moderna halved between early June and now. SMT has 3.9% of its portfolio in Moderna currently.Back in early June the percentage was around 6.1% suggesting underperformance is responsible for the decline.I have a suspicion,they might of added a few!Anyway,i'm even boring myself on this particular topic!

[caternia] 25/9/2024 11:06

Thanks for that. I have had luck in the past but did get my fingers burnt with the deals in 2021. Will consider trading and also happy to wait.

[lord loads of lolly] 25/9/2024 10:29

caternia - yup, fingers crossed!

I guess your unhappy tale (to date) highlights the inherent problem for anyone investing in a more volatile fund/share.

Timing is critical. But it's also almost impossible to get right, being largely down to luck.

I'm fortunate, having first invested in SMT in 2016 when the share price was £3.26. I also took some money off the table when we hit £14 and again when we breached £15. But - with the benefit of hindsight - I've made some mistakes here too. Either by buying back in too early. Or by not maximising profits when the price was near its peak.

My main takeaway is that however attached you become to an investment, a certain amount of trading might be beneficial. I'm not suggesting day trading SMT - far from it. But because it's quite volatile, there can be more opportunities to lock in a decent profit, then buy back in 10% lower (assuming you still believe in the investment case). I know, because I've done it myself a few times over the past 2-3 years.

Best of luck anyway. Given you've a decent investment horizon, I suspect you'll still be OK here. But if you think it might help, maybe consider very occasional trading, as set out above.

[caternia] 25/9/2024 08:35

Yes you’re right. Lucky not needing to cash in. Hopefully they will move in the next 5 years.

[lord loads of lolly] 24/9/2024 22:13

caternia - sadly, with hindsight, 2021 was definitely NOT the time to buy SMT.

[caternia] 24/9/2024 17:05

I bought ATT and SMt in 2021 and ATT is up 10% but SMT is down 34% so they need to get going.

[lord loads of lolly] 24/9/2024 14:55

Always complicated to work out how much is due to portfolio rebalancing. And how much is simply down to individual share price movements.

They've definitely reduced Nvidia even further since July, which I'm happy about.

Looks like ASML & Moderna have been cut too.

The one thing I'd add is they're currently not betting the farm on any one individual share as much as previously. Which I think makes perfect sense. There were times - not so long ago - when their top holding represented 10% or more of the fund total. At 31 August, it's "just" 6.7%. Whilst betting heavy on a single outcome can bring stellar outperformance, it's also highly risky. And I'm glad they seem to be recognising that.

[quepassa] 24/9/2024 11:08

MercadoLibre (Latin America) is now ScoMo's top holding.


6.7% of portfolio as at 31/8 (total LatAm exposure is barely more at 7.3%)


NASDAQ: MELI

[quepassa] 24/9/2024 06:15

Major rally in China/HK stocks on important and wide-ranging stimulus measures.

[quepassa] 18/9/2024 14:58

Highly-regarded Burns gives South Korea's Coupang a strong write-up in the freshly-printed Autumn edition of BG's Trust magazine.


(NYSE:CPNG)

[chillpill] 13/9/2024 07:04

As I said a few weeks ago I think Moderna’s technology is outdated.

I am on the same page as @rogerbridge in that Moderna/BionTech are being challenged by new technology. Scancell on our own doorstep being one of them- better (v early) results than mRNA in certain cancers.

[lord loads of lolly] 12/9/2024 18:00

steeplejack - I hear you. But whilst you think SMT’s managers should be addressing it, you also suspect Moderna is currently oversold.

In which case, presumably the only way they CAN sensibly address it (short term at least) is by sitting on their hands for now.

Interestingly, SMT has recently reduced its exposure to Nvidia quite significantly. You could argue whether the timing’s right (no-one’s ever likely to get it spot on). But personally, I’m glad they’ve acted. Whatever AI’s potential, my sense is sector valuations got ahead of themselves. And as we all know, a bird in the hand……

[steeplejack] 12/9/2024 15:39

I think that managing a portfolio nowadays is a real challenge,especially a growth fund like SMT.managing a balanced fund is less demanding while a income fund pretty much suggests itself.Moderna could have been a real winner.I can appreciate why SMT chose to go big.Covid has disappeared surprisingly quickly from the consciousness of national governments.Yet Moderna has a lot of strings to its biotech bow and at this level is probably oversold.Equity markets are so erratic nowadays.

[hazl] 12/9/2024 14:51

Thing that I am more concerned about is the general market and uncertainty.
However things change .

[hazl] 12/9/2024 14:49

Exactly.
So not a time to sell, at a low.


I am sure that you have a very educated view and applaud your comments.
However, can any of us be sure that we would have got every single investment spot on across a portfolio, and to everyone's liking?

I doubt it.

Again, having read the books...I know that just one single company, as an investment, can lift the whole of your portfolio.

As a mere mortal with many things out of our control I suggest it's harder than it looks.
Suppose they sold and suddenly missed out on a game changer!
They might humbly try to crawl back and buy higher.

How would people feel then?

[steeplejack] 12/9/2024 14:13

There are some very clever chaps at Baillie Gifford.I’m sure they’ve got all sorts of qualifications but as a Fellow of the Chartered Institute for Investment and Securities,I know that being able to crunch a few numbers doesn’t necessarily guarantee insight.If Moderna perks up like it did earlier this year,I’d lighten the holding.The managers have got a lot right but they’ve got Moderna wrong and it’s weighed on the share price.

Moderna now expects to break even on an operating cash cost basis in 2028, two years later than its prior view.The shares are now at a four year low.

[hazl] 12/9/2024 12:49

I see that pharma has a big hold these days.

It is personally not something I like but the trend seems to be there.


IMO