Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[hazl] 13/11/2023 14:05

Note....
'we expect Phase 3 trials in various cancer types to launch this year'.

[hazl] 13/11/2023 14:03

Progress

Growth and innovation are not dependent on the direction of macro-economic developments. Instead, we pay close attention to exponential trends such as Moore’s Law in semiconductors, Carlson’s curve in genomic sequencing or Wright’s Law in manufacturing.

These predictable trajectories of progress are a valuable way to understand what is happening in the world. A feature of these laws is that progress each year can underwhelm but cumulative progress over a decade or more is remarkable. The past year was an exception because there were breakthroughs across various industries and technologies.

One striking example came from healthcare and our largest holding, Moderna. The company has demonstrated that mRNA technology can be used to create effective personalised cancer vaccines.

Phase 2 trials in advanced melanoma showed a 44 per cent increase in survival for those taking the therapy in addition to the current standard of care. Pharmaceutical giant Merck paid US$250 million to co-develop the technology with Moderna, and we expect Phase 3 trials in various cancer types to launch this year.

[hazl] 13/11/2023 11:33

A very tight spread....almost 'choice'.

[hazl] 13/11/2023 09:18

'SpaceX leadership, including Musk, have discussed spinning off Starlink to take it public through an initial public offering once the business was “in a smooth sailing situation.”

'We think that by the time they go public with SpaceX, with Starlink … in 2027 or so, four years, the company will be worth $250 billion to $300 billion,” Baron said, speaking to CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin.
'

[takeiteasy] 13/11/2023 08:00

www.trustnet.com/fundswire/13396229/scottish-mortgage-investor-webinar-your-questions-answered/?fe=1

[hazl] 13/11/2023 07:58

hazl - 12 Nov 2023 - 18:43:33 - 3116 of 3132 scottish mortgage Inv. trust charts - SMT
Over the last ten years the NAV per share has increased 432 %
according to the FT earlier this year.

[hazl] 13/11/2023 07:56

Again you will always find discrepancies if you look in a certain time frame.

What about ten year which I showed for BG?

[hazl] 13/11/2023 07:54

'ignore the risk/return dimension'
Your quote .
Yet I don't you chose to skate over it.

Again you quoted it up against a Nasdaq fund index compared to FTES All world index which SMT beat hands down apparently.
We can all cherry pick.

I think considering you expressed interest in acquiring this share you
are going about it a strange way.
Unless of course you want it cheaper.

[takeiteasy] 13/11/2023 06:25

Hazl,

I simply do not get why you ignore the risk/return dimension if you want to provide the fullest picture.

Go on trustnet and google 5 year return and volatility for SMT vs close tech rival global fund (I won't mention the name as there are a number so the specific IT does not matter tbh) and you will find the following.

SMT has pretty much exactly the same volatiity as some of the other high risk tech funds but has exactly in some cases half the 5 year returns.

To compete for the attention of professional investors (ignore retail clients for now), SMT needs either to find investments that provide an overall better return or reduce the volatility in the overall portfolio with some better risk/reward options.

This is the modern day discipline that professional investors running portfolios against risk models will apply. At the moment, SMT needs to do more imvho in this regard to get the risk/reward balance right. dyor etc

[hazl] 13/11/2023 05:32

However, post 3125, in response ,I will say that you are not wrong in your observance.
I had the flu for a couple of days, and though I felt better in myself yesterday, I wasn't well enough to go out.
So in a sense I was looking for something to do, that wouldn't require any physical energy.

But I see no reason to be nasty to each other.
It is good to visit the bull and the bear strategy every now and then.
Lord King was speaking on the BBC earlier and he made me feel that the timescales for recovery in the banking sense might be longer than some people think.

[hazl] 12/11/2023 21:16

Space could be a $1trn industry

It’s worth noting that analysts at Morgan Stanley believe the global space industry could generate revenue of more than $1trn by 2040, up from around $350bn in 2020.

And it reckons satellite broadband is likely to represent 50% of the projected growth.

“We believe the largest opportunity comes from providing internet access to under- and unserved parts of the world, but there also is going to be increased demand for bandwidth from autonomous cars, the Internet of things, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and video,” wrote analyst Adam Jonas recently.

This helps to explain why SpaceX already has a valuation of around $150bn (roughly the size of HSBC – the FTSE 100’s third largest company).

[hazl] 12/11/2023 21:15

They are mostly copying and pasting accurate information from SMT's sites and others just so that everyone gets a full picture....as there are four of you.

[quepassa] 12/11/2023 20:53

Excuse me. That achievement -if it can be called that- is purely down to you

YOU have composed no less than FORTY lengthy posts to-day on this bb.

That is clearly abnormal behaviour and you have spent all your day since 7am this morning typing lengthy essays which few (like me) would have paid any attention to.

And you have been trying your hardest to provoke a fight on this bulletin board all day long.

However ,I am heartened to see that none of the old hands on the bulletin board have taken the bait and are unlikely to do so or wish to engage further.

[hazl] 12/11/2023 19:42

Thanks to you people we are on the top leaderboards today!

Well done more visibility.

[hazl] 12/11/2023 19:40

Ah Q you haven't read my Post 3105

My post.
Did you know that interestingly Bailie Gifford now acts as its alternative investment fund manager and company secretary ?
The managers of SMT are Tom Slater and Lawrence Burns who are both partners of Baillie Gifford.

Now that is what I call personal takeiteasy Q's post.
So it's good to hear you want to buy in...as cheaply as possible fair enough.
At least we have a reason for your negative posts.
Err why would you want to buy in then....because you see value?

[quepassa] 12/11/2023 19:07

1.

"Que was comparing us to the fund at B Gifford"...

ha ha ha

it is quite clear that this numpty doesn't even realise that SMT is itself a B Gifford fund. Indeed, SMT is B Gifford's flagship fund

Moreover, he doesn't realise that Tom Slater is OVERALL HEAD of NORTH AMERICAN EQUITIES at Baillie Gifford - not just joint manager of ScoMo.


BOTH HAVE FALLEN A LOT.

chuckle.

[takeiteasy] 12/11/2023 19:06

Please try not to get personal - we are all trying to express our views and it is fine to disagree.

I have never shorted any share in over 30 years of investing. I am sitting on the sidelines watching and waiting for a time to re-enter. If I was a shorter you should be saying what a genius i am to have made a ton of money in the descent from 15 quid down to here. I sold my last lot at about 12 i think.

I am thrilled they have cut illumina right back and if they do the same with moderna, the china stuff and the loss making biotechs then I will get even more disposed.

If it takes a few months or even years before I come back that is fine.

It is vital to question the risks of any possible investment - including the skills of the management to deliver consistent performance over time.

If I was an investor I would like a 360 degree view on why others are sitting and waiting out and not coming in to see different perspectives :)

[hazl] 12/11/2023 19:02

BG Says similar things about risk.

'The Trust is suitable for all investors seeking a fund that aims to
deliver capital growth over a long-term investment horizon. The
investor should be prepared to bear losses. The Trust is aimed at mass
market distribution. The Trust may not be suitable for investors who
are concerned about short-term volatility and performance, who are
seeking a regular source of income or who may be investing for less
than 5 years. The Trust does not offer capital protection'.

They are indeed comparable in my opinion.

I see that SMT upped it's dividend in recent times.

[hazl] 12/11/2023 18:53

Oh you are a shorter I didn't realise.
Very few posts here each of them negative.
Takeiteasy.

[hazl] 12/11/2023 18:47

You see....would you sell if you knew that...or wait?

'Merck paid US$250 million to co-develop the technology with Moderna, and we expect Phase 3 trials in various cancer types to launch this year.'

[hazl] 12/11/2023 18:44

'Growth and innovation are not dependent on the direction of macro-economic developments. Instead, we pay close attention to exponential trends such as Moore’s Law in semiconductors, Carlson’s curve in genomic sequencing or Wright’s Law in manufacturing.

These predictable trajectories of progress are a valuable way to understand what is happening in the world. A feature of these laws is that progress each year can underwhelm but cumulative progress over a decade or more is remarkable. The past year was an exception because there were breakthroughs across various industries and technologies.

One striking example came from healthcare and our largest holding, Moderna. The company has demonstrated that mRNA technology can be used to create effective personalised cancer vaccines.

Phase 2 trials in advanced melanoma showed a 44 per cent increase in survival for those taking the therapy in addition to the current standard of care. Pharmaceutical giant Merck paid US$250 million to co-develop the technology with Moderna, and we expect Phase 3 trials in various cancer types to launch this year.

Moderna now has 30 vaccines in clinical trials for infectious diseases and with the addition of therapies for cancer, liver disease and lung disease, the number of potential applications for Moderna’s technology is multiplying.

While the focus of energy markets was on the immediate impact of the crisis in Ukraine, the long-term trajectory away from carbon remains. The Inflation Reduction Act in the United States has created a framework for significant investment in electrification, aiming to prevent Chinese companies from dominating the supply chain. Europe must respond with an equivalent strategy to avoid all the industrial capacity being built elsewhere.

Our holding Northvolt, the European battery manufacturer, made its first commercial deliveries in 2022 as its production facilities in Northern Sweden ramped up.

It is tapping into enormous latent demand for electrification and has announced US$55bn of contracts to supply major automotive manufacturers. It is expanding its manufacturing footprint outside Sweden as it scales up rapidly to meet the industry’s needs.

Solar generating capacity doubled in the three years to 2022 although it remains less than 5 per cent of the global energy mix. In December, there was the first confirmed example of net power production from a nuclear fusion reaction.

This result has proven elusive for several decades and is an important milestone on the path to harnessing the technology. The price deflation that will eventually flow from renewable generation makes identifying direct investments challenging, but it is crucial to consider how abundant clean energy will impact society’s ability to innovate.'

SMT

[hazl] 12/11/2023 18:43

Over the last ten years the NAV per share has increased 432 %
according to the FT earlier this year.

[hazl] 12/11/2023 18:37

You are assuming of course that they won't be suggesting more vaccines, every year and that pandemics are over.
Do you realise that quite a few countries have given the WHO, the right to decide for us, as to when these things are recommended?
To me that suggests that Pfizer and Moderna are already rubbing their hands with glee.
Que was comparing us to the fund at B Gifford I guess he didn't notice how much that had dropped in the last years.
Nothing wrong with it I'm sure...it's just this is what happens in Bear markets,and private companies are sometimes difficult to value.

I am waiting before I add purely because of the markets.

[takeiteasy] 12/11/2023 18:27

Hazl,

You believe in the strategy and no one is saying that they disagree with you in wanting to follow the approach for the reasons you state. Be as excited and optimistic as you wish.

The position over portfolio changes is much more nuanced than you explain it.

The idea of successful portfolio management is to take profits on your winners and cut your big losses.

The reason everyone bangs on about Moderna is that it was a screaming sell as soon as pandemic cleared up as demand would fall off a cliff - this was at anywhere between $200-$400 a share - to hang on as the top holding raises questions over risk management absolutely.

Selling illumina now at close to a possible bottom (after many many years of holding) is not great either to me - the issues have been known of for years and the managers kept hanging on in faith that things would turn around.

I fully accept that this is how they run the business to give such a sense of slack to firms with a long term view to try to ride out the ups and downs and be long term investors.

I think this approach works well for the types of holdings we both agree are great like Nvidia , Amazon, Meta and ASML but I now absolutely query the LTBH approach for ultra high risk small cap biotech and tech investments.

I am not asking you to agree at all as you are a supporter, but I hope the managers continue to make clear the implications of their approach for all their investors. This is a question tbh...I will keep watching their comments and make my own assessments....