Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 24/11/2023 15:23

The young are the tech savvy while the 40 and 50 year old analysts are still back in the stone ages, just ask any teen.

[steeplejack] 24/11/2023 13:17

So,am I to understand that we can dismiss all those highly paid investment analysts in the tech space and hang around middle school for enlightenment.There was a US investment club some years back that made a handsome return on its investment in Wal Mart which was stimulated by the observation that the car park was always full.In the area of tech,however,i question whether talking to a teenager is going to give you much of insight as to the bottom line profitability of social media technology.Everyone to his own.

[hazl] 24/11/2023 13:12

Cum Par NAV 803.76p XD

Cum Fair NAV 832.08p XD

Ex Par NAV 803.44p

Ex Fair NAV 831.76p

[hazl] 23/11/2023 19:52

The recent rise says the market likes us....

imo

[lord loads of lolly] 23/11/2023 14:07

loganair - you can rabbit on about the worldly wisdom of your teenage son all you like.

Fact remains, the latest figures for Spotify & Hello Fresh totally contradict his none-too-scientific hunch.

[hazl] 23/11/2023 13:08

I think it is time to remind those above
that the proof of the pudding is in the eating!


Net asset values show the share price is undervalued in my book!
Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLC (SMT) 22 November 2023
Legal Entity Identifier : 213800G37DCS3Q9IJM38
Cum Par NAV 809.98p

Cum Fair NAV 839.24p

Ex Par NAV 808.04p

Ex Fair NAV 837.30p

[quepassa] 23/11/2023 12:11

FT page 9 (22/11)

Palantir win £330m NHS data contract

May 2023 $5
Nov 2023 $20

a lot more to run

[monte1] 23/11/2023 11:05

Quite so. An apples and pears comparison.

The growth trajectory seems to bear that out.

[brucie5] 23/11/2023 11:02

Loganair, that may be the important distinction - between tastes of teens and twenty-somethings. To which there might be two further questions:
1. Is this difference age specific, like the taste for good coffee, which is probably not of interest to average 15 year old..?
2. And which demographic has more disposable income to spend on what they like?
;)

[monte1] 23/11/2023 10:05

Spotify active user data growth - with 220m of these currently premium subscribers. Unfortunately it does not provide a breakdown to the level of granularity of Loganairs teen’s schoolmates.

Quarter 1 – 2015 68 million
Quarter 2 – 2015 77 million
Quarter 3 – 2015 91 million
Quarter 4 – 2015 96 million
Quarter 1 – 2016 104 million
Quarter 2 – 2016 113 million
Quarter 3 – 2016 123 million
Quarter 4 – 2016 132 million
Quarter 1 – 2017 138 million
Quarter 2 – 2017 149 million
Quarter 3 – 2017 160 million
Quarter 4 – 2017 157 million
Quarter 1 – 2018 180 million
Quarter 2 – 2018 191 million
Quarter 3 – 2018 207 million
Quarter 4 – 2018 217 million
Quarter 1 – 2019 232 million
Quarter 2 – 2019 248 million
Quarter 3 – 2019 271 million
Quarter 4 – 2019 286 million
Quarter 1 – 2020 299 million
Quarter 2 – 2020 299 milliion
Quarter 3 – 2020 345 million
Quarter 4 – 2020 356 million
Quarter 1 – 2021 365 million
Quarter 2 – 2021 381 million
Quarter 3 – 2021 406 million
Quarter 4 – 2021 422 million
Quarter 1 – 2022 433 million
Quarter 2 – 2022 456 million
Quarter 3 – 2022 515 million
Quarter 4 – 2022 489 million
Quarter 1 – 2023 515 million
Quarter 2 – 2023 551 million

[loganair] 23/11/2023 09:47

I take much more heed with what my teen says the other teens are doing at school, techwise as they're are way ahead of the 40 and 50 year olds who run tech investment trusts.

[steeplejack] 23/11/2023 09:17

SMT has a rather good record of top slicing its holdings after a good run ie Tesla for example.(It also has a rather unfortunate record of chasing prices higher ie Moderna).However,SMTs focus is fundamentally long term and its portfolio largely vested in a select top ten which doesn't lend itself to trading in and out due,in no small part,to the substantial size of those equity holdings.As for Nvidia,the shares ran up substantially ahead of exceptional figures.A bit of top slicing was to be expected.The shares only fell back a few per cent anyway.Nvidia's products are arguably integral to the A1 revolution.

[bagpuss67] 23/11/2023 08:53

Spotify appears to me to me miles ahead of its rivals in its useability if not the sound quality (but I think that's a niche market)

[monte1] 23/11/2023 08:40

#3210

Different to what I ‘heard’ everywhere else.
Nervousness due to likely impact of further tightening of AI chip trade restrictions between US and China given that China is a major market for Nvidia. AI is still on the relatively early growth stages and this is where they are a prime mover. Like all tech stocks, things can change very quickly for the better or worse - high risk / reward. You don’t buy funds like SMT if you are after a steady income.

[brucie5] 23/11/2023 08:35

My two kids both in late twenties use Spotify endlessly, for music, podcasts and audio books. So much so that every time they come to stay they try to convince me to subscribe. It seems like a compiling product that has managed to achieve the necessary scale to have a virtual monopoly position. And I realise this is merely anecdotal. But the LL's figures don't surprise me.

[loganair] 23/11/2023 08:26

The reason I heard why the NVIDIA share price fell slightly when they came out with their stellar earnings is because the big money is saying this is as good as it gets which strongly suggest the days of the stellar rise in NVIDIA share price are behind it.

This is where SMT are making their big mistake, not selling once a company is at the good as it gets stage and the stellar rise in the companies share price is behind it.

[steeplejack] 23/11/2023 07:52

Equity growth: Scottish Mortgage"We outlined some of the reasons for investing in this trust four weeks ago, not least its holdings in some promising unlisted companies such as Northvolt and ByteDance, the owner of TikTok. The managers have a distinctive and consistent approach, while gearing is not excessive at about 15pc at Sept 30. The discount of 13pc is appealing for a fund that has often traded at a premium."Daily Telegraph article today in Business Section reiterates SMT buy recommendation.

[steeplejack] 22/11/2023 22:05

Moderna has halved in the last six months but Mercado Libre is at a years high and has doubled in the last eighteen months.SMT has had a holding for some time ,certainly since 2020 i think.Interesting stock and now up to fourth in the list.

Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust
31 October 2023

1
ASML
7.3%
2
NVIDIA
5.0%
3
Amazon.com
4.8%
4
MercadoLibre
4.8%
5
Moderna
4.7%
6
Tesla Inc
4.2%
7
Space Exploration Technologies
4.1%
8
PDD Holdings
3.8%
9
Northvolt
3.5%
10
ByteDance
2.9%

[lord loads of lolly] 22/11/2023 15:11

loganair - it rarely pays to base any investment decision on the hearsay of a teenager.

According to Statista (arguably a tad more reliable than your son's guesswork), in terms of Spotify's premium members, "As of the second quarter of 2023, Spotify had 220 million premium subscribers worldwide, up from 188 million in the corresponding quarter of 2022."

Meanwhile, Hello Fresh achieved its highest ever adjusted EBITDA of €192 million in the second quarter of 2023.

If you're thinking of becoming a statistician any time soon, a word of advice: Don't give up the day job.

[hazl] 22/11/2023 10:43

I can't wait till this one regains it's highs.

[hazl] 22/11/2023 10:23

Jimbox most people don't know when to buy.
When it is unloved.


8-)

[jimbox1] 22/11/2023 10:20

Loganair, I agree. They don't know when to sell.

[hazl] 22/11/2023 09:10

Did you lose much in JSE logonair or are you just working for JPMorgan?

I mean the share went down what was it 88%?

[loganair] 22/11/2023 08:52

What the managers of SMT seem not to understand about tech these days is one minute it is in, then the company has its 15 minutes of fame, then its out.

Spotify is one of SMT top holdings. According to my teen 3 years ago it was the in goto App for the teenager and 20 somethings, now nobody he knows listens to the App anymore.

Hello Fresh, grew massively during the pandemic, 9 houses in my estate of 48 had Hello Fresh, today none do. My teen also did 2 paper rounds 2021/2022, at least 2 dozen houses on the round had Hello Fresh, by May 2023 only 2 of these over 2 dozen still had Hello Fresh.

My question is, why didn't SMT sell their shares in these 2 companies, instead have kept hold of companies who are not growing any more, if anything are shrinking in customers.