Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[hazl] 12/11/2023 06:52

Well people often make mistakes by jumping to conclusions!

I have not added to my small position yet, because I don't know if the stock market as a whole is going to drop further..... not because of any doubt I might have about the stocks they have chosen.

That in part negates the article's premise as far as I'm concerned.
Edit I see it is not neccessarily the article that is at fault here but the way it has been edited by 'takeiteasy'.
Things that are trending higher, often do carry on up.
Bear markets,though, will flatten even the best, temporarily.

Look around you 95% of the stocks are likely lower, at a guess.
Certainly the majority.

I have faith in the SMT management to ride out the storms and not be emotional about it.
We will see in time if I am right, but for that article to be written at a low across the board, then it fails to impress me, at any rate.

IMO

[takeiteasy] 12/11/2023 05:17

www.trustnet.com/news/13396085/we-bought-all-our-best-performers-at-big-premiums-say-scottish-mortgage-managers

I simply am speechless when I read this....

People often make mistakes when considering valuations, according to Tom Slater.

Historically, however, the stocks that have driven the Scottish Mortgage portfolio upwards had been bought at premiums, co-manager Lawrence Burns explained.

“If you go back over the things that have driven Scottish Mortgage’s performance over the long term, you'll find that when we first bought them, they will all have been at a high multiple and have actually added the most value over time,” he said.

I suspect one of the SMT team's favourite stocks of all time is Illumina a biotech superstar that keeps failing to execute and is now in a position to have dropped by 58% over 1 year and 69% over 5 years and still remains in the portfolio. I am not sure how this fits with the "added most value over time" comment. Perhaps they think this will come good over a 10 year horizon maybe?
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/illumina-stock-tumbles-grail-isn-t-the-only-issue/ar-AA1jIh0x

For some experts like Buffett the basic lesson of investing is called "margin of safety" and why you end up in the situation we have now when the market turns against you with high interest rates, S&P 500 ETF tracker focus, PE market all but shut to new money etc etc

The article almost reads like - whatever you think you are reading negatively about our fund we are still certain we are right and that others are wrong. Wow bold stuff indeed!

What is so utterly wierd is the parallel universe between what everyone including the firm keeps saying about the fund and what is actually going on inside it :) dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 11/11/2023 12:42

Why is this still being pushed from all sides?
Over 3 years using all the frailties of the data that gets available to us all online so not to be totally relied on of course:

I could see of their so called Top 30 holdings list on the web site - 4 that were positive performers

Moderna is one of the better performers at a loss of 20%


And so for the very worst please consider:
Nio down 85%
Denali down 76%
Delivery hero down74%
Zalando down 74%
Meituan down 61%
Hellofresh down 55%

In terms of risk management, is anything being done to review such performance and manage downside risk effectively?

Can the top 30 list have a greater proportion of reliable / profitable performers?

Why does no one in the press actually talk about the portfolio issues when they discuss the fund?

From a risk modelling point of view this sits in the wrong quadrant now of high volatility and low return and not where you would want to be against the efficient frontier.....

dyor and no advice intended of course....

[loganair] 11/11/2023 12:06

This doctor was the consultant for Pfizer who deals with Respiratory infections - what ever they're called and he was interviewed less than a week before the Pfizer mnra was due to be rolled out in the UK and he said what his professional recommendation to Pfizer was and who he would give the vaccine to.

[jellypbean] 11/11/2023 10:08

Given that there is no such thing as a Respiratorologist, I wouldn't take much notice of this comment.

[lord loads of lolly] 10/11/2023 23:29

So what, unless you’re one of those delusional conspiracy theorists?

No drug will ever be 100% safe - or 100% effective.

Given the rapid Covid vaccine rollouts, their efficacy & ability to save umpteen people’s lives is something we should celebrate. Particularly in the UK, given the pivotal role our country played in this. Far better that than highlight the odd tragic - but extremely rare - failure & suggest these will lead to mass legal claims through the courts (which they won’t).

[loganair] 10/11/2023 11:11

A few days before the Pfizer vaccine was due to be rolled out in the UK I saw the Consultant Respiratorlogist for Pfizer who was asked who he would give the vaccine to?

He said his recommendation to Pfizer is to give the vaccine to the elderly over 70's or 75's, those who have comorbidities and immune deficiencies and that's all.

He was then asked what percentage of a countries population would the vaccine be given too.

He said for the average country would be about 25% of the population, countries such as the United States around 35%, however if a country has a fit population 20% and if young and fit population maybe as low as just 15%.

[lord loads of lolly] 10/11/2023 10:53

loganair - you've got me REALLY worried now. Not.

[loganair] 10/11/2023 09:59

hazl - As far as I understand it the governments took on criminal liability, not civil liability where an individual or group of individuals can take these vaccine makers to sue them in the civil courts.

[hazl] 09/11/2023 22:09

I believe from memory on the second point about liability from vaccines the government happily took all the risk. It was written into the small print that Astra wouldn't be liable for any problems for many years. At the time it worried me but l still found myself taking it .

[hazl] 09/11/2023 22:06

Gentle nudge is absolutely fine lolly but really l couldn't keep it up! Anyway what's the harm when it's just started to improve?From my point of view it's useful at this crucial stage of uncertainty as to whether it is the start of a recovery or a dead cat bounce to quickly see in one place if the NAV is improving consistently? It looks better at present l think.

[lord loads of lolly] 09/11/2023 21:51

loganair - and I can spot an unsubstantiated scare story from 100 paces.

As you well know, AZ experienced an extremely rare & brand-specific side effect in an infinitesimally small number of cases. To draw the conclusions you do from this is pure, deliberate mischief-making that won’t fool anybody.

[loganair] 09/11/2023 17:03

Astra Zenica being sued in the UK for their unsafe covid vaccine, I can also see this happening to both Pfizer and Moderna all over the Western world which over the years to come I can see this costing these companies hundreds of millions of dollars if not billions in reparations and may in the end bankrupt a company such as Moderna as unlike the other two, Moderna has so far been just a one trick pony.

[lord loads of lolly] 09/11/2023 16:45

hazl - just a gentle nudge that a running commentary on the daily NAV might start getting a tad tedious after a while.

Especially when it's easy enough to look up if anyone's interested.

[hazl] 09/11/2023 14:04

Cum Par NAV 778.43p

Cum Fair NAV 810.89p

Ex Par NAV 776.53p

Ex Fair NAV 808.98p

[hazl] 08/11/2023 13:35

Cum Par NAV 779.69p

Cum Fair NAV 812.13p

Ex Par NAV 777.79p

Ex Fair NAV 810.23p

[septblues] 07/11/2023 23:24

they shouldn't be benchmarking themselves and stick to alpha

[livewireplus] 07/11/2023 21:05

Scottish Mortgage sticks by its guns as manager says we will underperform sometimes https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-12715149/Scottish-Mortgage-sticks-guns-manager-says-underperform-sometimes.html

[hazl] 07/11/2023 13:14

Cum Par NAV 766.62p

Cum Fair NAV 798.97p

Ex Par NAV 764.72p

Ex Fair NAV 797.07p

[masurenguy] 07/11/2023 00:26

Down, a little, but Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust is certainly not out
Patrick Hosking
November 07 2023

In October, for the first time since June 2019, Scottish Mortgage was not the bestselling investment trust on the Interactive Investor platform, which compiles a monthly league table (the new champion was City of London Investment Trust, a decidedly more conservative vehicle). Some fans of Scottish Mortgage have run out of patience. The shares have more than halved from the high point of two years ago. Once trading at a premium to net assets, they now languish at a 13.6% discount. According to the latest interim report, net assets dwindled 2.7% in the 6 months to September, underperforming its benchmark, which rose by 4.3% over the same period.

Complete article:

I've no position here.

[jellypbean] 06/11/2023 23:58

So, if you search the SEC filings for moderna you can find the last beneficial ownership report update from Scottish Mortgage was 30 Dec '22, where they owned just under 45M shares, or 11.66% of the company.

About half of these were bought in late Feb '21.

As there was an update filed for the above purchase, I'd expect there would have been an update if there had been any sales, otherwise there is just an end of Dec annual update.

[lord loads of lolly] 06/11/2023 23:28

Any holding’s position will change in line with its share price. So it’s not always a terribly reliable indicator, unless looked at alongside the share volume held over time.

[takeiteasy] 06/11/2023 18:36

Moderna back to its old tricks - down hard again today.....I hope this is not any longer number 2 holding in the new list published mid month for end October...

[steeplejack] 06/11/2023 08:09

Its a robust apologia of their investment style which is understandable given the group has underperformed their peers of late.The reference to SMT borrowings averaging only 3% up to 2036 is a feather in their cap.

I suppose part of the explanation for the sizeable discount to NAV is down to the 30% of the portfolio being in private companies.Whether investors like it or not,the pool of attractive listed companies is not only shrinking but fresh entrants are rapidly decreasing.A lot of companies are eschewing listing and remaining private.You need an SMT to seek out those private companies.

Nvidia gets a mention but not Moderna .Oh well,maybe in the Annual Report :)

[excalibur91] 06/11/2023 08:04

I'm only surprised at 75,000 posts!!¡¡

There's a great big world out there, you know?

(*´,_ゝ｀;)