Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 05/6/2023 14:21

Sector news.


Apple at new all-time high.

Market cap now $3 trillion.

[harry_david] 03/6/2023 18:48

We all agreed the shares at a 20% discount and priced at about £6.10 were ridiculously cheap. Today they have partially recovered but even the most jaundiced investor should hang on until the discount is nearer 5%. Nothing is perfect but overall it is a very strong portfolio.

[steeplejack] 02/6/2023 15:18

A valuation is applied to the unquoted element of the portfolio by SMT and one is required to accept that.I can argue that a portfoilio that contains the likes of Nvidia and ASML should not stand at a discount (even given a large holding in Moderna!) but i’m running fairly blind when it comes to arguing that the unquoted investments are being undervalued in the portfolio because i don’t have a comparable access to data.Yet,i see what you’re saying ie SMT is being valued incorrectly as a consequence of 30% of its portfolio being in unquoted.Well,time will tell.Ideally it would be good to have the equivalent of what Action Supermarkets is to III (the latter trading at around a 5% premium to NAV)driven almost entirely by an appreciation of that private company’s record and prospects.

PS.I welcome the fact that an investment trust like SMT has a large unquoted element.Listings both sides of the Atlantic are in marked decline and to get in on the ground floor,you will need to purchase an interest in private companies.Many growth companies will eschew a stock exchange listing if they can secure bedrock finance from the likes of SMT especially given the regulatory regime under which listed companies labour nowadays.Dechra are on their bike i see and many others will follow.

[caternia] 02/6/2023 15:11

Weather great, and the people who are saying SMT will be a Penny share have gone quiet. I wonder if they backed their comments and shortened the stock?

A long way to go mind.

[quepassa] 02/6/2023 14:54

no you misunderstood.

there's never been a discount of 43% on any part of the portfolio.

splitting the valuations between listed and unlisted is a new way of perceiving the portfolio.

that's called foresight not hindsight.

[steeplejack] 02/6/2023 14:46

Two years ago (when SMT were around £16 and stood at a 5% premium to NAV) the world was a very different place.Inflation was subdued and the geopolitical situation superficially relatively benign.The valuation and premium enjoyed by SMT was wrong two years ago as history has shown.SMT is oversold and has enjoyed a good bounce of late and that is in part, at least,been partially technical plus the benefit of having sizeable positions in good performing semiconductors.The markets valuation of SMT can only be assessed as 'wrong' with the benefit of hindsight given that for the greater part the share largely tracks the value of the portfolio constituents.Sentiment and demand accounts for a fluctuating discount/premium.

[quepassa] 02/6/2023 13:45

The market is WRONG in the pricing and valuation of ScoMo.

The market is indiscriminately valuing the whole portfolio at a 13% discount to NAV.

If you split valuations of the two portfolios, I would suggest that the Listed Portfolio should be valued at or near par.

If you accept that the Listed Portfolio should in isolation be valued at or near par, this means that the Unlisted portfolio is de facto currently being valued at a massive discount of 43% to NAV.

And a 43% discount on Unlisted is far too high - especially when SpacEx alone accounts for nearly 15% of the Unlisted equities' portfolio.

Prospects for discount compression should not be ignored.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 02/6/2023 07:34

Good times. Bad times.


Do bear in mind that sentiment drives the share price which in turn drives the price to NAV.

Currently discounted by c 15%, the market was pricing ScoMo at par or even at a premium to NAV two years ago.

[hohum1] 02/6/2023 06:55

Interesting tech performance stats Quepasa. But SMT’s NAV is only up 4% (before dividends). They seem to have lost their touch…

[emptyglass] 01/6/2023 20:04

Dead Silicon Valley Unicorns Pile Up as ‘Unicorpses’

SMT discount will widen even further ....

[quepassa] 01/6/2023 17:17

Tech Sector dead??

Year to date:-


Palantir +150%

Meta + 110%

NVIDIA + 280%

ASML + 40%

TESLA + 90%

AMAZON + 45%


(rough figures)



- OTHERS WILL FOLLOW

- SCOMO'S CURRENT DISCOUNT-TO-NAV IS IN BARGAIN TERRITORY.





ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[lord loads of lolly] 30/5/2023 09:32

arja - ATT & PCT may both be lower risk. But that doesn't necessarily make them better bets. Just lower risk.

[arja] 30/5/2023 09:21

SMT now has a nice uptrending short term chart and could well run to close to 700 resistance level . BUT ATT and PCT must be better bets as they do not have UNQUOTED investments .

[topvest] 28/5/2023 15:53

Nvidia is on a P/E of 202. US still blowing bubbles!

[steeplejack] 27/5/2023 11:29

Yes i was wondering whether they'd adjusted unlisted company valuations.

[itchycrack] 27/5/2023 05:13

The rise on the back of Nvidia is just exit liquidity!
Use it or loose it!
Its your final golden opportunity, don't waste it!
Last chance before sub 200p.

[lord loads of lolly] 26/5/2023 17:24

steeplejack - SMT has risen roughly 7% from its recent May lows, so some positivity is creeping back in (for now at least). Maybe ASML & Nvidia's rise coincided with falls in some of their unlisted holdings?

[steeplejack] 26/5/2023 16:04

I’m surprised that the surge in ASML and Nvidia,some 10% of the portfolio hasn’t been reflected in the daily NAV calculation to date.Moderna is underperforming but nonetheless.Polar Tech (PCT) saw a 3% jump in NAV today over that announced yesterday.SMTs calculation barely moved.

[ramnik007] 26/5/2023 09:41

Evidence that fund managers continue to pick the big winners in the tornado of AI!

[lord loads of lolly] 25/5/2023 14:25

There are far worse companies to be in! ASML's share price has risen around 75% from its recent October 22 low. Even that's still around 23% below ASML's Sept 21 peak. It's a big player in a sector that's got ever-growing demand at the moment.

[steeplejack] 25/5/2023 08:43

ASML is now clearly SMTs largest holding.

[steeplejack] 25/5/2023 08:03

SMT has 3.2% of portfolio in Nvidia that leapt 25% after hours on Wall Street in response to trading update.

[bigwilly1986] 23/5/2023 15:55

I don't want to get overexcited but I think Moderna has just gone up rather than down

[steeplejack] 19/5/2023 11:36

Maybe you should hold a few gold shares as a hedge?

[essentialinvestor] 18/5/2023 18:26

I just can't see that, there is so much competition now in ev, they effectively had a very nice head start on the wider industry.
But never say never, perhaps.