Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 30/4/2023 09:44

Thank you for that. It was not, of course, a recommendation to buy, but a pretty balanced view. The net effect was to make me even more wary!

One thing struck me: you described the low charges (0.4%) as a positive compared with over 2% for private equity. I'd say quite the opposite. If you're running a PE/VC fund it's expensive to do the due diligence and ongoing board and management support which PE/VC fund managers provide. Are SMT trying to do this on the cheap, or aren't they just not so good at it? (This is the point Bhide made.)

An article in Quoted Data (31 March) included:

Over the last two decades, we’ve owned 749 stocks and bonds. Of those, 680 – about 91 per cent – have made zero net contribution to the overall return.

The roughly 12-times return we achieved over the period was driven entirely by 69 assets – just 9 per cent of the holdings. Indeed, half of that growth came from just 14 investments.

Now that statistic does worry me, mathematically. If just 14 investments out of 749 provided the outperformance, that could well have been 13, or 12, or ... and the outperformance would have vanished. (Yes, it could have been 15, 16, etc. but there's your risk, your uncertainty.)



There's also this, 20 April:

[u813061] 30/4/2023 08:28

I have posted a deep dive analysis of Scottish Mortgage on my youtube channel

hxxps://youtu.be/4WtVRyTbmOY

A deep dive look at Scottish Mortgage, its portfolio, its strategy and how it invests.

The video looks at the unique strategy of the investment trust, its portfolio, its risk management and how it invests. The video considers whether there might be a change in fortunes following the recent boardroom bustup which ushered in a new chairman. Scottish Mortgage is also compared to its sister fund Baillie Gifford Long Term Global growth.

[steeplejack] 28/4/2023 09:32

This sort of volatility in an investment trust isn't everybody's cup of tea.Compared to SMT,the likes of Polar Capital Tech look like proverbial steady eddies.Throw in the the lack of clarity which comes with a near third of the fund vested in unquoted and the marketers of SMT might have a choppier ride going forward.It was only a couple of years back that SMT traded at a premium to assets of 5%.A premium then seemed optimistic,it'll seem 'ostrich like' if it happens in the future.For all the bravado,at the end of the day,successful investment invariably requires a bit of luck.That's not a surprise given the importance of timing.SMT is going through a rather unlucky patch.We've seen it before as these darlings of the investment community fall from grace.I have a few SMT but in general i'm happier selecting my own stocks then i only have myself to blame.

[hohum1] 26/4/2023 15:55

Thanks, southwinds - you mean this article? hxxps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tom-slater-my-biggest-mistake-was-being-too-slow-to-snap-up-netflix-3q3tb9rqj
From October 2021 - pretty near the top of the bubble. Contains some great quotes: including ‘You can only ever lose 100%’.
60% down from the peak - only 40% to go

[essentialinvestor] 26/4/2023 14:13

Tend to agree on your view.

[huncher] 26/4/2023 14:04

Look at the 10yr, basically they got lucky with an early tech call, the are trying to do it again but in a very different market.

[southwinds] 26/4/2023 13:58

Ever since the management of SMT wrote an article in the times, stating how out of date, Warren Buffett'st stance on the market was -- SMT have been on precipitous slide, hubris and incompetence vying for supremacy

[itchycrack] 26/4/2023 04:31

I did warn ya, long long way down yet to play out.......chart looks absolutely dire!

[hohum1] 25/4/2023 14:41

Did the $750m funding round mentioned in the press in January actually happen? It just shows the paucity of information that SMT investors have on a top 10 holding.

[maxwellsdemon] 25/4/2023 14:32

Updated link
Updated link:

[hohum1] 25/4/2023 14:04

How on earth do you value Space X today?

[lord loads of lolly] 25/4/2023 09:02

steeplejack - If ultimately successful, I'd say Moderna's personalised cancer vaccines would be pretty profitable. Not to mention life-changing for a significant proportion of the world's population.

[caternia] 24/4/2023 17:55

I would rather lose my money than have pandemic again! There has been great advances due to cancer vaccines.

[steeplejack] 24/4/2023 17:50

A pandemic scare etc would appear to be needed if Moderna is to repeat the price of over $400 achieved a couple of years back.Biotechs are notoriously volatile and there’s always an erudite crew who know all about T cells,cephalosporins,double twist and tuck who fail to recognise that the rating applied to biotech stocks has precious little to do with fundamentals.Its rather driven by sentiment,hope and speculation by those that have the scantiest knowledge of the science and not biochemists types.That might sound questionable but drug discovery is a pretty hit and miss affair.Many drugs after years of research fail in phase three clinical trials despite the best endeavours of the highly trained. Anyway,vaccines are nowhere near as profitable as say treating arthritis.What you want is a patented drug that alleviates suffering for those that aren’t going to die imminently.Long term medication takers are the drug industry’s preferred patients.

Added later…….A company like Novo Nordisk treating diabetes and obesity is in a more profitable space than Moderna.

[hohum1] 24/4/2023 17:48

The announcement on 11 April from Schiehallion Fund - hinting at a sizeable hit to NAV when one of its largest holdings was in receipt of an agreed bid - is also a concern. How conservative are the SMT valuations?

[hohum1] 24/4/2023 17:30

The write downs by Schroder Global Capital Innovation (the old Woodford Patient Capital) of Revolut and others highlights the need for SMT to improve its disclosure on unlisteds. They simply quote a valuation with no indication if they’ve added or reduced, written up or down. The results to be published in a month or so really need to come clean on this..

[oscar nosher] 24/4/2023 16:45

Now at a 52 week low

Which I guess means a 3 year low

BWAHAHAHA

[oscar nosher] 24/4/2023 16:45

Do people really pay fees to buy this rubbish

BWAHAHAHA

[investor_tp] 24/4/2023 15:23

I don't have a view on the financial valuation of Moderna, but as I see it Moderna (and BioNTech) are basically key players in the biotech equivalent of what the invention of the transistor was to the semiconductors industry. I don't think any investment case for it relies on the recurrence of another major pandemic.

[steeplejack] 24/4/2023 14:20

The Covid epidemic is unlikely to prove a ‘one-off’;.SMTs decision to buy a thumping big stake in Moderna (chasing the price up in the process) was clearly based on the belief that an epidemic of that nature is more than likely to recur again.in any event,the drug industry invariably looks after its own.Takeda,for example,is prolific when it comes to acquiring drug companies of all shapes and sizes in the biotech world.Moderna might well be ‘absorbed̵7; in due course.I think that SMTs decision to pile so heavily into Moderna was,with the benefit of hindsight,overly exuberant.It’s the sort of thing i might do….i expect better of SMT.

[lord loads of lolly] 24/4/2023 09:35

loganair - two possible answers to your conundrum: 1) SMT fund managers don't have the benefit of hindsight 2) The analysts can't see past their noses (yes, shock horror I know... but it wouldn't be the first time).

[unastubbs] 22/4/2023 11:14

fair enough Logan I haven't seen those. I apologise.

[loganair] 22/4/2023 10:24

Even the most bullish analysts say Moderna share price will not reach the highs of 2021/2022, therefore I ask why didn't SMT sell its stake in Moderna then?

una - I also submit very positive points on some threats, JEMA for one, usually threads that many others are posting very negatively on.

[unastubbs] 22/4/2023 09:33

1. LoganAir, while not a nutcase, only permits himself to submit negative points of view to these boards.
2. As this is an IT it's all about the sum of the parts, no one stock is going to bury the firm.
3. Other views on Moderna are available.
4. Probably.
5. I know fug all about Moderna. I've just bought in to these on a "peripheral" basis as all my holdings are focussed on income I wanted something that will grow overtime.
6. I feel that the discount provides something of an opportunity.
7. I have 8 year horizon but will most likely hold beyond then

[loganair] 22/4/2023 08:57

Analysts continue to expect steep declines for Moderna as Covid vaccinations and boosters wane. For the first quarter, they project a per-share loss of $1.74. Losses would swing from a year-earlier gain of $8.58 per share. Sales would slump 81%.

Moderna also plans to increase the price of its Covid shot to $130, that's a 4 times increase compared to last year - a doom loop, keeps increasing the price = less health services will give the shots.