Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[tosh123] 29/11/2018 11:49

What it does go to prove, is that his inability to understand the most basic of principles, is now known outside of these BB's.
Hit total lack of any grasp of reality has now hit a much larger audience, and his failings are now highlighted in an independent publication.

[drdobson1] 29/11/2018 11:39

Yes Gazza I could have made that point more Obvious.
My main point was to Highlight the Failed Professor PLUM as falling totally into the category mentioned by Trinity as being ILL Informed and Tottaly Oblivious as to the risks here.
But what do you expect from a EGO obsessed Vilage Idiott who is a self CONfessed Liar and uneducated Oath and always WRONG

[gazza] 29/11/2018 11:10

DR, well pointed out. However, I would have phrased it slightly differently:

Scancell has a diverse shareholder register with a large number of smaller investors; whilst SOME of these are well-informed and technically competent, there are a many who are ILL-informed and technically INCOMPETENT who appear to be OBLIVIOUS to the risks. Can be spotted by the clock noises they make intermittently.

[gazza] 29/11/2018 11:05

Old, my sentiments exactly! Make what you will of the Trinity report but it does come with a massive dollop of REALISM.

[oldnotwise] 29/11/2018 09:32

Whilst its not what many will really want to see Trinity's published level seems to me to be a realistic viewpoint when looking at SCLP's immediate potential cash generation. Since all equity investment is based on the likely future cash generation (from the underlying assets) and the prospects for increasing that cashflow (P/E), maybe we can settle to some more realistic future share price "valuations" in the short/medium term. This obviously doesn't allow for a sudden and unexpected injection of cash from any significant deals for parts (or all) of the IP but purely in income terms the Trinity output looks more realistic than anything I've seen for a very long time.
This current target looks even more realistic if SCLP is actually going to pursue a business plan that doesn't involve the sale of IP, but the out licensing of parts or all of the IP in one form or another.
So all in all an I believe an element of realism has been brought to Scancell's immediate future (however much I'd prefer s target measured in £s rather than pence)..... BUT I'd rather be surprised by an share price that EXCEEDED the target rather than one that continually undershot the (way too optimistic) targets that have been applied over the last few years.
Well done Trinity... a breath of fresh - but not dangerously compressed - air!
AIMO
ATB

[panama7] 29/11/2018 09:26

Bermuda, if it was sold lock, stock and barrel it certainly would get anywhere near the attractive multiples of 34p Goodfellw stated 5 years ago. The vast majority of Investors would gladly take 50p today if it was on the table. the BOD have proved to be totally incompetent, they raised funds 5 years ago at 22p to carry out a trial that we were told would lead to deals. Not one single deal has materialised and they have since had to raise funds at ever decreasing levels and now have a historically low share price while lining their own pockets in the interim. Their contempt and lack of respect for their Investors was very evident at the AGM. If they need £12m in the next 12 months or so they would gladly raise at 2p it makes no difference to them whatsoever, they will still help themselves to 25% salary increases and adjust the share options accordingly. they really are quite a despicable bunch and have used Cancer to con Investors to fund their research.

[bermudashorts] 28/11/2018 16:50

Panmure's valuation was based on discounted deal value - so taking into account deals across the sector in the previous couple of years (2013/4) and then discounting for risk. They came up with a valuation of £177m after applying a 25% discount for risk. Trinity Delta have used standard rNPV valuation.

Trouble is that there is no easy and reliable way to value a pre-revenue biotech. - too many variables and unknowns. As you say Terror, currently value is around £30m - who knows what it would be with a lock, stock and barrel sale? If analysts can't work it out then we certainly can't but I suspect it would be significantly more than £30m.

[knowlesi] 28/11/2018 16:39

Trinity have used a very different methodology to arrive at the 21p - they have modelled expected cashflows of the three lead products used a discount rate of 12.5% (this essentially the time value of money $1 today is worth less tomorrow etc) and factored in probability of each product making it to market (20% for SCIB1, 15% for SCIB2, 10% for Modi). Panmure used relative valuation - basically saying XYZ is at a similar stage and worth this amount so SCLP should be valued at that. Neither is perfect - DCF is better for more predictable, mature, cashflow generating business than early stage biotech. I would probably suggest Panmure's approach is more sensible but it's all crystal balls really. One thing is clear - this is very much a 2020/21 story. Can't see much in the way of value catalysts until the three trials are completed and data can be accessed.

[terror] 28/11/2018 16:20

If you are struggling to ramp up a share, the MFF have a tried but untrusted tactic.

Bring up the Panmure 69p valuation.

Errr, no. That will not work but you have to laugh at their tenacity and perseverance.

It's 8p, that's what the market values the Company, the Science and the club holdings.

[tosh123] 28/11/2018 16:17

And the village idiot turns up with yet another totally useless and fundamentally flawed comment.... " its meaning less, The only way is to put the IP up against competition on the same like for like basis which can be done as we have no cash flow" .....

So the village idiot who has called everything wrong and ridiculed those of us that predicted that the share price would fall into the 7p - 8p range,( and much to the idiots detriment, were proven to be RIGHT and him to be VERY WRONG yet again ) preferring instead to demand that everyone follow his outrageous £8 prediction , now attempts to rubbish yet another market professionals valuation.. its laughable...

[bermudashorts] 28/11/2018 14:56

Really interesting paper 'The clinical trial landscape for PD1/PDL1 immune checkpoint inhibitors' if you click on link in tweet below. Some staggering facts and figures:-

As at Sep 2018 there were 2250 active PD1/L1 clinical trials
1716 of those trials are combination trials
The combined sum of all these trials aims to recruit 380,900 patients

A couple of points jump out in relation to Scancell. The first is this paragraph:-

1) 'Notably, the growth of new trials for melanoma has recently slowed down, possibly owing to the approval of the combination of nivolumab and ipilimumab. The extraordinary clinical benefits of this combination (response rate of 58%; N. Engl. J. Med. 377, 1345–1356; 2017) might have set too high a bar for
novel combinations to overcome'

Interesting to note the slight change of language re. the SCIB1 combination trial in the Trinity Delta report - making it clear that the trial will be a success if it matches the response rate of existing combination therapy of Opdivo and Yervoy but has a superior safety profile.

2) Recruitment rates for these trials has dropped from 1.15 patients per month per trial centre to just 0.35. This is where using major cancer centres with high volumes of patients such as MD Anderson and MSK should pay dividends.

[drdobson1] 28/11/2018 14:31

No doubt the mouse that can’t be killed that baNANA is always trHYPING on about stole the cheese.
When it comes to LYING,CONInG and THIEVING he is the true deer Leader

[panama7] 28/11/2018 14:30

Tosh, so the Company is now valued at 21p a share after being valued at 67p a share for 4 years. What on earth has happened to the 46p difference. I wonder if Goodfellow will be tweeting the new valuation as he has done with the 67p valuation on several occasions.

[the real lozan] 28/11/2018 12:19

21.1p a share ???
Not quite the Hardman 69p a share, sooo often 'trotted-out' by the BUY,BUY,BUY trHYPE SCAM 'GROUP' ???
Also, Tarquin omits to mention that 'trinitydelta' refer to the NEED for FUNDING
.
In recent years, SCLP have raised *DILUTING PIECEMEAL* money = On the basis of - placings "To provide for TRIALS"
TRIALS that DON'T start... BUT, *DILUTING PIECEMEAL* monies RAISED melt-away ...in keeping the company running = Which in turn leads to the NEED to RAISE monies AGAIN - "To provide for TRIALS"
Is it not time, SCLP, did 'One thing or the OTHER' ???
.
Mrs Lozan employs the same 'trick'..by downing half her glass of wine...then CLAIMS =
"Oh dear, I have no cheese to go-with my wine"...the cheese appears
The wine gets 'supped' leaving half the cheese =
"Oh dear, I have no wine to go-with my cheese" = more wine appears
The cheese gets devoured... leaving half a glass of 'unsupped wine'
and the process gets REPEATED
.
Does this 'practice' sound familiar...in cash-burn terms ???
.
How many more times ???

[tosh123] 28/11/2018 11:12

TF
They sure do... " We value the company, using a risk-adjusted DCF model, at £82.0m, or 21.1p a share " ... but please take note of the full sentence, theres a word contained within their statement that doesn't exist according to some uneducated idiots.

[torquayfan] 28/11/2018 10:59

Thanks for further clarification - quite enough shooting analogies then !

Re. the 'idea' - can't recall who mooted that on the other side. However, I have the feeling that all being well, Moditope will prove to be a 'trump' (small t) card but we'll see.

Re. Trinity - they value SCLP at 21 pence which would be nice right now . . .

[bermudashorts] 28/11/2018 10:32

hxxp://www.trinitydelta.org/scancell

[bermudashorts] 28/11/2018 10:17

TF - you misunderstand the point I was making. My fault, I wasn't clear. The suggestion that Genentech/BioNtech are having to resort to shotgun methods of identifying target antigens is inappropriate for personalised mRNA vaccines. In fact, it's counterintuitive. It doesn't work like that, the whole point is that the target antigens are already sitting there as a result of the tumour's genetic mutations, unique to that patient. No need to use scatter gun to try and find an antigen that is common to all patients.

The idea that BioNtech and Genentech have somehow had to resort to joining the CRUK grand challenge team because their own cancer vaccine development and research is lacking or that LD knows more than Ira Mellman is just not right and honestly some perspective is needed. Apart from anything else, why suggest their involvement is driven by something negative? Ira Mellman and Ugur Sahin have joined the team because they are interested in and impressed by the idea of Moditope - that's great and no more explanation needed.

As for Lindy Durrant, of course she knows what she's doing - she's a recognised expert in her field.

[torquayfan] 28/11/2018 09:15

Bermuda - the rifle and shotgun analogy goes backalong way. In 1977 my MD John Farmer - a genuine Jimmy Hill double - used it frequently. Prof. Lindy certainly and forever seems to know exactly what she has in her sights and understands the science to target with effect.

Re. 'personalised' or not. I followed that and I've seen that blooper around before. Thanks.

[bermudashorts] 28/11/2018 07:59

TF yes absolutely, it's just that the suggestion had been made elsewhere that the Modi was a personalised treatment and that BioNtech and Genentech were somehow having to turn to Scancell as they were struggling to find targets with their personalised mRNA vaccines. That's Genentech with their 15,000 employees, $17 billion revenue and Ira Mellman at the helm apparently struggling with a 'scatter gun' approach. Hmmmmmmm

[torquayfan] 27/11/2018 23:54

Bermuda - isn't that true also of Immunobody treatment ? Neither Immunobody nor Moditope are 'personalised' at all being applicable to many or all ?
BWDIK - very good !

[bermudashorts] 27/11/2018 22:22

Thanks gooosed, complicated stuff. I'm still struggling to see why/how Moditope can be described as a personalised treatment - even Modi TCR. As far as I can see, the whole beauty of moditope is that it doesn't have to be personalised, a Modi TCR can be created and expanded and given to any number of patients thereby cutting out that hugely expensive loop described in your link. BWDIK?

[drdobson1] 27/11/2018 19:18

Yes saw both FOILham 77 and baNANA said on MFFF that the 200k at 8.22 yesterday was a Defo BUY when nothing’s ng like this amount had been accumulated LIWER.
Excerpt of course TODAY where plenty has been accumulated at lower than this price.
But of course the trHYPERS can see int9 the future so could predict today’s fall UNLESS of course it was a DEFO sell but they can’t be wrong or could they