Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[gazza] 26/5/2018 12:15

TF a few years to get to £??????s. How can you say that is too long when there is no figure on years or £££££s ?!!!!Let's look at the earliest SCIB1. Possibly has a value of 1.40/share based on income. When will this materialise? 2/3 years?Of course, there is nothing stopping anyone paying 1.40 well before it materialises in anticipation of reaching this value and more on the basis of SCIB2 and MODI platforms. I think it is more difficult to predict time than value. We all know that if trials go well this will be valued in ££££s. What we don't know is when. I guess only time will tell. Aimo

[torquayfan] 26/5/2018 09:53

Gazza 15825 : ''I am more in the method 3 camp (like you) and hope the share will soon be up to 20p (I'll be in good profit) and over the next few years we will be stopping off at £1,£2,£3 ..... all the way to £???????''.

Gazza IMO you are too long on the timescales - remember when Moditope was discovered the share price got to 60 pence - now we have the Patent - 14 pence? When the penny drops surely £1 is possible soon. With Grand Challenge coming along (hopefully) and BioNTech interest plus SCIB1, SCIB2and Modi trials imminent.

IMO share price will move UP and build and sustain before too long now. Maybe there'll be a snowball effect - but it's anyone's guess and GLA

And enjoy your weekends !

[gazza] 25/5/2018 18:25

Same to you BS (and all) have a good weekend.

[drdobson1] 25/5/2018 18:14

baNANA only sees things in Black and White NO middle ground OR shades of GRAY for HIM.SOme advice.
TAKe the BLINKERS off and see the CoffEE and SMELL the view.
There Is of COUrse a 4Th way to Value ANYthing and that is to LIVE in NANA LAND.where ALL your £6 Dreams come true.
A land where EVERyone listens to and likes baNANA and where HE is KING.
Let him enjoy his dreams BUT in the REAL world where the cut and thrust of commercial life happens and the BIG players ply their trade and have enjoy the rewards of a successful CAReer baNANA is irrevalant AS in the REAL world baNANA has NO friends and NO ONE listens to HIM as he is a gibering HEDJIOTT as MY MA would say.
May all the REAL workers like Tosh/Gaza/Loz and MOI enjoy the Bank holiday weekend enjoying the fruits of our honest toil not like baNANA and his CONhest LIES and cheats

[bermudashorts] 25/5/2018 18:07

Thanks for coming back, am still struggling with that one but no point in getting into long debate on the subject. Think we all understand that there is no definitive method of coming up with a valuation for a bio. Time to enjoy bank holiday weekend with friends, family and a glass or two. Have a good one folks.

[gazza] 25/5/2018 18:02

BS, future costs would be a factor in the income method. Total spend is just one method, as you say, perhaps not the best way for a biotech.

[bermudashorts] 25/5/2018 17:14

Gazza,

Have never come across IP for biotech being valued by total historical costs. Future costs obviously are one element which have to be taken into account but how do historical costs have any impact on current value?

[inanaco] 25/5/2018 17:06

well if you value based on cash spent V mcap why on earth would you invested in VAL which is showing the same capital expenditure as scancell for no commercial efficacy ..
(£23m) v mcap of £11m ... that is a serious loss

sorry i don't put on any blinkers .. any fool can dig a hole and fill it back in again .. Capital expenditure with no retained value

I suggest you stick with Gainful employment rather than trying to explain your valuation methods because to consider any other method apart from 3 is dangerous, when your valuing non dividend paying assets that are research based.

as you have clearly identified the only way to make a capital gain is to source a share that is not accurately valued by the market and that its intended investment is very clear cut, identified and the science that has been explained can be confirmed by third party with proof and reasoning. Scancell 100% fits that criteria


The reason why i don't have to work, is because i have followed that particular business model since my last gainful employment at the age of 21.

the alternative is Loz's and Dobsons left wing communist state and the over throw of capitalism as signed of by john Mcdonnell

[gazza] 25/5/2018 16:37

Inan, Sorry I do have a life away from the BB I'm afraid.

I not sure how I can explain it any simpler. There ARE THREE ways of valuing IP. I'm not saying any are right or wrong, it is just a FACT that there are THREE ways (possibly more?) of valuing IP. If you look at each of THE THREE methods you can value the IP thus:

1.Cost. This is the total amount of investment spend getting the IP. This is (according to the Feb 2018 hardman report) £23.9M (7.4p per share)

2. Market Value. 14.25p x 312M = £44.5M

3. Potential/Future Income. Name your price.

You have chosen to use method 3. And you have named your own price £6-£8/share. That is titally your perogative and I won't critise you for doing so. In fact, I applaud your enthusiasm, confidence and faith.

I realise you put on your blinkers regarding the other (universally {apart from InanWorld}) accepted methods of valuing IP but actually they do have some value:

IF the share price were to fall to 7.4p (that's NOT a prediction BTW) I would think to myself, hang on, that's only the amount of money spent to get us where we are and I would seriously consider buying a few.

At 14.25p I might say to myself, well, others are valuing the share at 14.25p therefore it may be a time to either buy or sell depending on my mood.

Like I said, I'm not endorsing any method, merely pointing out they exist.

Personally, I am more in the method 3 camp (like you) and hope the share will soon be up to 20p (I'll be in good profit) and over the next few years we will be stopping off at £1,£2,£3 ..... all the way to £???????

Hope that explains it, and once again apologies for having gainful employment.

[inanaco] 25/5/2018 13:13

mmmm gazza gone silent again ...

[gazza] 25/5/2018 11:51

Inan, I realise YOUR valuation will only consider 3. There's no point asking me what cost has got to do with it, I'm only highlighting industry standard methods of valuing IP. To summarise they are

1.The Cost of getting the IP =£23.9M according to Feb Hardman report.
2.Market valuation = £45M today
3.Future income resulting in £3/share = £1B

If you are a pessimistic, ultra cautious person you may use method 1, see that this is less than the current value and steer well clear.

If you are a more positive investor (like you and me) you may prefer the future income method as the sky's the limit. You have to be prepared to take the risk.

IMO

[the real lozan] 25/5/2018 11:35

"how can you have a prediction loz that has not taken effect when the trials have not started yet be wrong

only a complete clown would consider that ..."
.
Nuff said

[inanaco] 25/5/2018 11:25

how can you have a prediction loz that has not taken effect when the trials have not started yet be wrong

only a complete clown would consider that ...

gazza you posted

1. Cost. This is available in the Hardman report, from memory I think SCLP has spent £25M getting to where they are. You could of course argue that without LD you could not get to this point and then of course there is the patent protection so you would have to come up with a different method and achieve the same results.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

what has the cost of development got to do with values ? I really don't understand your comments on Lindy ..

all my predictions are based around Point 3 .. loz just takes the head line figures and forgets every other detail ... as its Convenient due to, he cannot understand the rest.

[the real lozan] 25/5/2018 11:22

P S -
*WE ALL* are still waiting patiently, for the LOSS BOSS or any of the 'GROUP'...
to show *US ALL* an example of where HE got ANYTHING...RIGHT ???
Surelee, if there EVER was such an item, *WE ALL* would have been presented with the 'evidence' by now ???
Unless, of course = ???

[gazza] 25/5/2018 10:41

Inan,

Valuing IP is rather complex. There are 3 main accepted methods.

1. Cost. This is available in the Hardman report, from memory I think SCLP has spent £25M getting to where they are. You could of course argue that without LD you could not get to this point and then of course there is the patent protection so you would have to come up with a different method and achieve the same results.

2. Market Valuation. Here, I'm afraid Loz is right - it's 14p. The lack of big pharma offering any more is sort of a confirmation.

3. Income/Future income. This is where we can go into overdrive. We need to access the value of each indication market, the expected market share for SCLP, the profit margin etc. My view is, £1 achievable in the next 2 years and £6 in the next 5/6 years. This is all dependent on the trials being funded and the results being positive.

AIMHO

[inanaco] 25/5/2018 10:02

its interesting the Bank of England moaning that the economy did not follow its own prediction and we are all £900 a head worse off .... ? work that out

One can assume then that the Bank always predicts correctly ....Big Tick

as the Queen stated with so many clever people why did they not spot the bank crisis 2008

well some take a prediction as fact ... Our "Loz" . Mark Carney ...

predictions are based around timing, Data input etc etc and that has changed considerable indeed i would argue if the same criteria was re entered, it would now produce £8 a share or higher ... as we hit inflection points, indeed many missed Modi2 targets and placed no value on Glycans

hats interesting is sentiment ... seems it does not matter how much IP your holding the market cannot value it.

Can Loz ?

answer will be 14p ... LOL

[drdobson1] 24/5/2018 21:55

Chelsea 35 thanks for courteous reply.
I am a BIG man just over 18stone but just love the bucket meals.
I DID try and restrain myself but baNANA seems to argue with everyone.On t other place NOT just Hot Wings but Ruck Rover,You and even Bermuda Shorties.
He argues with Gazza,ME,Agema,Tosh,Lozan,Old Not Wiser and MANY MORE so the FAULT is clearly HIM.
Pleased that YOU seem to be enjoying life no doubt as a result of Chelsea winning Something and coming OUT of dark period of your life.
When is AGM and DO YOU get free food and drink as nothing I like better than BUT of SCOFF and they should make every effort TO look after US BIG investors.

[chelsea35] 24/5/2018 20:50

Dr Dobson, well thanks for your reply, you sound a ""big man"", just a shame you didn"t put it into practice when the opportunity arose. Yes i do understand how irritating it can be, but then again without it this BOD would struggle for anything worthwhile to debate, which is a shame given you all have opinions worth listening too on many occasions.

Dr Dobson, i hate to rain on your ASTUTE party, but believe me everybody that could afford to have had the same buying and trading oppotunities that you believe make you unique. I would have thought you have much to discuss without making out you are alone in that field.

Other than that enjoying life again, managing just to get out now, enjoying the smallest of things again after six years of hell, and no Loz that isn"t the period since i first bought in here, lol!!!

Talking of which should be a very interesting year ahead, particularly looking forward to the AGM at this moment , with the Grand Challenge winners to be announced so soon after. In fact just looking forward to the day in hand.

Hope Scancell fulfill just one of my dreams this year, the rest are pretty decent too.

Take care..................c7

[chelsea35] 24/5/2018 19:38

"""24 May '18 - 07:58 - 15790 of 15811
0 1 0
I see Modi-1 trials will not begin until the first half of next year. So could still be a year away. More jam tomorrow.""""

Getting close to a very good post. We know at the very least the input we will gain in CRUKs Grand Challenge will only benefit forthcoming clinical perfection covering at least the whole Moditope Platform.

I wonder how many companies have had the good fortune to work with the Industries finest just prior to launching trials into humans.?? It can only be good that on LSE at least we keep talk of a £25m cash windfall to the minimum, whilst there have been a few moments when we have heard from the BOD and get more than a hint that being in the prize money could only be just six months away. I think we can all agree that just getting amongst the finalists is some achievement and now in that position we are perfectly set, timeline wise to take full advantage of it.

I think it is quite sad given that, that the poster concludes.............""".I see Modi-1 trials will not begin until the first half of next year. So could still be a year away. More jam tomorrow."""" But then again a big improvement on previous posts, lol.

[oldnotwise] 24/5/2018 16:17

Bermuda
Quite right too.... We certainly will... :-)
ATB

[gooosed] 24/5/2018 14:24

Courtesy of boom (posted elsewhere) and imo worth a look :



Click on the slides.