Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 09:18

"" I run it using 100% dilution, ie, another 1B shares issued.""

what if the share was a £1 around the time of the planned funding Ruck ?

messes with your maths and valuation

you just don't think it through enough

[ruckrover] 04/10/2024 09:16

"you need to know the share price at the time of the dilution event"

Why would you "need to know the SP" if it DIDN'T have some effect on the issue price?

(corrected)

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 09:11

never said it was determined by share price what i said was

you need to know the share price at the time of the dilution event

[ruckrover] 04/10/2024 09:07

MT, That is a really good point. In my model, I run it using 100% dilution, ie, another 1B shares issued. Someone pointed out that the maximum shares the board are authorised to issue (without shareholder approval) is 20%I was glad the resolution at this years AGM is to allow up to 66%. Contrary to what Inan thinks, the amount of dilution is not determined by the market share price It is dependent on the issue price which could be significantly higher or lower than the prevailing share price I would assume a placing at 15p to get further down the line and a later placing at a higher price once risk has gone down a bit.

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 09:05

can i value that ?



that is higher than our Mcap

game over its a "joint right"

so in effect $500m phase 2 asset

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 09:03

not sure how anyone can not square that away

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 09:02

if Moderna and Merck along with the press consider the adjuvant melanoma trial with Keytruda is a go based on a personal vaccine with its huge costs involved

then SCIB1 that equals its efficacy as a monotherapy at nominal costs

you have your answer

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 08:59

you only need to value SCIB1 by the way

you have all the supporting data already

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 08:56

I agree ...

but that requires all current trials reporting

[markingtime] 04/10/2024 08:47

I know you need to know that.....which is why I was asking your assumptions, since you claim to be able to value the shares. Nobody knows - we're all guessing.I think the company will need more than that for their plans (which may well be bigger and more multi-faceted than most currently think). But I think they will have no trouble getting the funding next Spring by one means or another, with excellent trial data and a share price roughly double the present.

[marcusl2] 04/10/2024 08:42

Immunobody is a platform.

Melanoma, NSC Lung cancer,myeloid leukaemia, Infectious diseases etc.

I do believe that Lindy is a genius and has an amazing team of talent surrounding her.

iScib+ should be even better, validates Avidimab further.

The combination of our vaccines with doublet could be a game changer.

Off the shelf, cheap, immediately available, easy storage.

I still think that most value is in Moditope, should be worth billions on its own.

I can`t wait to see the Renal Cell Carcinoma results. Just a good improvement on the current best treatment out there will be great.

Glymabs , SC2811 and SC134 are particularly exciting.

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 08:28

Ivy ... nothing changes

Money still talks ...

I buy shares you just tell us how great you are at buying shares

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 08:26

MT ... you need to know the share price at the time of the dilution event and how much has been raised from non dilutive sources ie Genmab etc

I suspect scancell will need £40m to take it forward in three countries

[ivyspivey] 04/10/2024 08:20

You a professional investor is a new one.
I thought you were a soot expert,a Latin scholar a car park entrepreneur and latent heat expert and a Science professor.
PS the Mercedes has replaced the Mondeo about 30 years ago.

[markingtime] 04/10/2024 08:18

When you talk about being "able to value Scancell", what dilution are you assuming for the funding of 2025/6 trials?

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 08:01

non of you including the Great Burble have picked up on that fact

why does Immunobody have no adjuvant ???

modi1 has




A vaccine adjuvant is a substance that is added to a vaccine to increase the immune response and make the vaccine more effective. The word "adjuvant" comes from the Latin word adiuvare, which means to help or aid.

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 07:58

if you look at all cancer vaccines

Biontech

they are far more advanced than the viral vaccine

they throw the kitchen sink at the problem with adjuvants and cytokines

yet Immunobody has NO adjuvant !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 07:55

Ruck you still do not understand Avidity

you probably didn't understand Weak self Antigens or did not read it

the two go hand in hand

you cannot have a strong Self Antigen active .... your t cells are deleted in the thymus that see it

otherwise you will be eaten by your own t cells

likewise your body will not release High Avidity reactive t cells the thymus must control that again you will be eaten by t cells

Lindy understood the connection

Cancer needs High Avidity

the Thymus blocks them

[balerno2] 04/10/2024 07:44

Hi Berm, there’s a massive difference between BioNTech and sclp. BioNTech have had the financial resources and luck. Of course they focus on RNA and sclp on DNA technology with the same T cell goals - high avidity. So it looks like Inan has a point about avidity. Now the question is who wants to transform us or themselves-into a massive biotech?

[ruckrover] 04/10/2024 07:43

"Give it a try ruck"I'm happy to give anything a try so long as I understand the rational. In the absence of you providing one, I would suggest the rational is this:On a share that is 100% guaranteed to increase by many multiples, it is prudent to buy as many as you can right up to the point it reaches its ultimate target. In this case you will buy up to £6.40 per share (£8 target less spread allowing for 10% return) Seems a sensible strategy apart from one major flaw: The 100% guaranteed only exists in your head, not in reality. The stark reality is that risks exist and currently you are sitting on significant losses. Of course, no one disputes your right to do whatever you want with your own money, and genuinely I hope you make loads. But to justify the strategy by saying "I can afford" is just plain wrong.

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 07:22

Ivy I am a professional Investor, you on the other hand work as a salesman for an employer with a company Mondeo who has not listened to advice

MTFB ... you did not listen

But You know better ......... but when asked ... Show us the money ! you refrain

after all Money Talks ... and Ruck is very Keen to show his "capability"

I am working on One Investment because i can

my other investment funds it !!

just like BioNtech using cash flow from its vaccine arm to fund Cancer research

I dont need to "spread risk" because Scancell did that for me

It gave me SCIB1 data that covers my capital 100%

and it gives me Avidmab, Immunobody, Glymab and Moditope as a spread

[ivyspivey] 04/10/2024 07:09

Morning Ruck,
If you hold a lot when share price goes up it is great but when share price goes down it is the opposite.
Continued buying at any price just because you believe it will always be mu,Ripken of current share price is amateurish at best.

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 07:05

bought 13.65 on £1000 inc fee

Give it a try ruck ...

[inanaco] 04/10/2024 07:03

all about the number you hold simple really ...

If you are able to Value Scancell and you ignore the noise from the imbeciles on risk etc as they have no scientific based analysis to even get close to explaining that risk .... its a buy


i refer back to my earlier post

The "wow" factor on presentations

but another "wow" factor the market has missed 60% stable disease with Modify

scancell cant shout that out ... why because it falls into a PFS endpoint which takes time

again if you look back in my history you will find that repeated that the reason why scancell have not updated was PFS data rather than ORR