I don't have a degree in economics .. or as a scientist in oncology
just self made ..
Good luck |
As you said Roger -
'boring talk'
It's endless |
the more the conservatives went left after 2015 the worse the economy got the solution was to turn Right (liz truss)
instead its turned to the extreme left
the longer it goes on ............ the worse it will get
and the harder the turn will become
it took the conservatives in coalition 5 years to slow Gov spending down after 2010
then to argue about regulation ... The EU effectively leaving the economy is limbo
will we be singapore or be kept so close to the EU we are effectively still playing by there rules and its not stopped .. Stalin's visit to the EU
next time around it may have to be done with a handbrake turn there is no money left |
you may say unemployment has not gone up
agree
but those on benefits have ! just masked by which benefit they claim
the size of the state has grown by 600,000
while state productivity has fallen by 10%
I am still predicting the IMF |
so what we have in the uk developing
AI Overview
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Stagflation Simplified
Stagflation is considered a very bad economic state because it combines high inflation, low economic growth, and high unemployment. It's more severe than a recession because it's a combination of the worst outcomes of a recession with higher prices. |
 the uk INFLATION PROBLEM ..
was never Demand Inflation ...
it was the removal of supply by shutting down the economy ref covid
while the demand was still there
then the government fed the demand side with free money
oil and gas price because of ukraine was a supply problem to fix which caused inflation
so you had two sources of inflation one by the government trying to save the economy and Oil supply problems
to fix it you need investment in supply, Oil and Gas, but the Gov. was also shutting down oil and gas by subsidy of renewals funded by taxing oil and gas
so you now have
high Tax on the demand side coupled with High interest rates affecting the demand side which causes no investment in the supply side
when the problem was lack of supply ...
Result Chaos ... a slow grinding decline ..
oil and gas is fundamental to food production its the fertilizer
AI Overview
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How fertilizers are made - Fertilizers Europe
To make fertilizer from oil and gas, primarily natural gas, the main process used is the Haber-Bosch process, which combines nitrogen from the air with hydrogen derived from natural gas under high temperature and pressure to create ammonia, the foundation for most nitrogen-based fertilizers; this ammonia can then be further processed to create various fertilizer forms like urea and ammonium nitrate depending on the desired application.
so Food inflation caused by Gas price inflation
and the cycle begins
Milliwatt economics ...
if i have it wrong let me know ! LOL |
Labour are fooling you about Net Zero ...
it was never to expensive even with Ukraine
the expensive part was the Tax Take 78%
and it really is simple ..
compare the pump price of fuel """"without the TAX""""
compare the electricity price at the service station that contains subsidy
The average cost of electricity for car charging at a service station (per kWh) is typically between 40p and 70p, depending on the charging speed, location, and provider, with rapid chargers generally being at the higher end of this range.
As of January 1, 2025, the energy price cap for electricity is 24.86 pence per kilowatt hour (kWh).
and business pay about the same 25 to 26 pence
with UK world wide emissions of 1% and our continued export of industrial manufacture by design ....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In May 2024, the price of industrial electricity in the United States was 7.95 cents per kWh.
that's 6.4p a KW/h
and that is why the US will remain competitive
its removing regulation
and allowing the market to decide "net Zero" on a competitive basis |
you just don't get it do you 2tyke ..
think about this
The dollar strengthens .... because there economy is growing and interest rates are not falling as fast because of that growth needs to be controlled to slow demand to slow growth, to allow supply growth to keep up thus removing demand inflation
so another currency the £ gets an advantage it gets weaker which promotes exports
that has an effect of the FTSE 100 because they are dollar based stocks
but the UK economy is going in the opposite direction down because of labour ideology which is why the rest of the stock market is not doing so well.
but the OIL and gas price the energy that powers the economy is in $
so the US economy only sees the $ price
but the UK economy sees the dollar price and the £ strength or weakness
if you want to enjoy the fruits of US wealth you invest exactly the same as big investors
"Dollar stocks" hence the rise in the FTSE
so Scancell business is not in £
its in Dollar
because of currency everything balances out in the End
currencies will take the strain of inflation by devaluation which then increases exports providing your competitive, the problem we have is really just one .. we make ourselves uncompetitive by regulation then try to protect ourselves with Tariff "when we where inside the EU" that was masked by cheap Russian Gas and we had the North Sea
Now we have escaped the EU and not reduced the regulation and made it worse by taxing to death business to feed a State that is out of control because of ideology
Liz Truss was the only politician that had the right path .. i left the conservatives when Lizz got the boot ...
Trump is doing a Lizz Truss making America great again
Follow the money ... $ stock
and follow the stock with very commercial assets not commercialised "beat the market"
so the question is are they commercial and can that be proven before proven
if you can answer this ... you solve the puzzle
which one has failed
SCIB1
or
KEYTRUDA
Does High Avidity t cell kill cancer cells ?
your body immune system uses Autophagy to assist in the clearance of Stress and damaged cells including cells with structural defects in DNA
Autophagy plays a crucial role in the immune system by acting as a cellular defense mechanism against invading pathogens, regulating inflammation, and influencing the function and development of immune cells, including macrophages, dendritic cells, and lymphocytes, effectively bridging the gap between innate and adaptive immune responses.
you have to decide if using the bodies natural defence mechanism against Stressed cells is the correct way Autophagy
Moditope targets Autophagy |
Boring talk. |
Well....all the charts are clear....they all agree with each other....that's almost certainly what will happen going forward.
US inflation and interest rates will continue higher....whatever Trump insists on...
They are in big trouble... |
markets move on your every word .... |
Oh well then....
.
Yep emerging markets....bond yields....gold..they are your winners over the next few years.
Losers ?
Pretty much everything else...
Tech stocks ...risk assets....
I'm afraid to say....biotech |
already have a base in the emerging markets ... Marking time has just been there i also have land near Surin |
But you wouldn't learn anything then inane 😊 |
Oh good you are leaving for emerging markets .... one can always have hope |
You don't forecast future market trends by looking at fundamentals ....one would have thought you'd have realized that by now...
The markets are a place of irony and contradiction.
.
The dollar is topping out....the Chinese currency is about to appreciate strongly against the dollar.
.
ALL the big US firms expect 2025 to see big gains in US stocks ....so what happens next ?
Think CONTRARIAN.....
.
The place to be is in emerging markets...definitely NOT the US market.
The golden age is over... |
do you think in that contract if Genmab don't proceed with all three projects per Mab
there will be no claw back ?
its a licence not a sale
Scancell is to receive an upfront payment and potential development, regulatory- and commercial milestone payments of up to a maximum of $630 million if Genmab develops and commercialises products across all defined modalities. Scancell will also receive low single-digit royalties from Genmab on net sales of all such commercialised products |
now simple maths ...
but what if Genmab pay clinic ready fee per target ... (i suspect they do)
lets say $5m
so 1 mab yields 3 targets
plus 1 retained
so now $25m per Mab
x 5 = $125m
plus a saving of $1.2b
plus the undeclared .............
what do i know |
Turkey's price drop |
Inan, "let me explain in simple terms buying scancell for $100m"How could anyone buy Scancell for $100m? |
let me explain in simple terms buying scancell for $100m
Genmab clearly know the mabs are worth looking at ...
lets say the highest risk state is before a phase 1 trial
cost to Genmab on the deals about $10m at that point
x 5 thats $50m
we know scancell is looking at others
we also know scancell can operate in areas that Genmab can't with Glymab
surely you can see the sense of Genmab making a offer at $100m
bigger pipeline and off the hook for $1.2b
so why don't they ! |
China Is The World's Largest Oil & Gas Importer
China is the world's largest importer of oil. In 2023, China imported 13.7 million barrels of oil per day, which is more than any other country or region.
the US is self sufficient |
its a very simple answer
the biggest economy for chinese goods is the US $
if the yuan blitzed the dollar
= No sales ...
china would be forced to try and devalue ... |
Don't be silly |
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