Savills Share Discussion Threads

[trader horne] 05/8/2005 16:14

rebel, what do you mean "breakout"? it broke out 3 years ago at 120p and has climbed like a rocket ever since ...

[cockneyrebel] 04/8/2005 11:06

Interest rates cut by 0.25% - must be great for big house buys and Savills deal in the big houses.

Another thing to think about - the new pension rules from next April allow retail property to go into a SIPP. The beneficiaries of this will be the higher rate tax payers who have the dosh to buy large properties to put in the SIPP - Savills deal in that sort of property.

Must be a buy on this PE imo - nice yield too.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 03/8/2005 10:33

chumping at the bit to make a breakout don't you think? 10% on the price when it does imo.

CR

[darias] 29/7/2005 09:05

sorry sticky keyboards

[darias] 29/7/2005 09:05

Hmm 75m for 20% stake leaves 100m

Do you think that there is a bid coming?

[grigor] 28/7/2005 21:26

Trammell Crow Company Reports Financial Results for Second Quarter and First Half of 2005

Line of Credit

Prior to quarter end, the company entered into a new three-year credit agreement with its bank group, led by Bank of America, N.A., providing a $175 million line of credit. At June 30, 2005, borrowings under the facility were $75.5 million. The borrowings were drawn during the second quarter to finance the company's purchase of its increased ownership stake in its strategic alliance partner Savills plc.

Leaves $100m

[cockneyrebel] 27/7/2005 13:03

results in a month but breakout coming much sooner imo - just a few pence away

CR

[cockneyrebel] 25/7/2005 13:54

so close to a breakout - history says when it dose it they are going on a belter imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 21/7/2005 11:36

Well looks like a breakout isn't far off here imo - starting to look rather firm.

CR

[goatman2] 07/7/2005 09:09

Hi CR. Remember CDFF?? Boring, but made 40% on them in the ISA. share price has levelled out now. Even I got bored! So took profits and bought some SVS. :o)

G

[cockneyrebel] 06/7/2005 13:53

looks like SVS are going to be an Olympic beneficiary selling all that urban regenerated high value housing by the share price reaction - up 19p :-)

CR

[cockneyrebel] 06/7/2005 08:54

Back in a firm up trend imo.

DTZ out with cracking results and a bullish forward statement.


COL also positive today.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 01/7/2005 16:58

cheers sealed - just what some of us have been saying! :-)


Closed at 690p in the closing auction - reckon this will be a cracking dip to buy.

CR

[sealed] 01/7/2005 06:06

Savills

SHARES in Savills slipped 5p yesterday after the upmarket estate agent and commercial property adviser cautioned that sales of new homes were slowing, amid a weaker housing market.

The news was predictable enough after downbeat noises from the large housebuilders in recent weeks. Luckily for Savills this is not where it earns its biggest fees from. The group may be best know for selling posh houses but the commercial division is the real powerhouse behind group profits. The company has an extremely strong investment division, which specialises in selling large commercial office blocks and shopping parks.

After a record-breaking year in 2004, many in the commercial property market forecast that the market would cool in 2005. So far this has not proved to be the case and investors are still snapping up commercial property as though it is going out of fashion.

The boom will inevitably peter out at some point - this could be later this year or early next year, but given the huge volume of business Savills has enjoyed so far this year, the market would have literally to grind to a halt for the company not to trump last year's record-breaking performance, which earned £79 million of bonuses for its staff. Meanwhile in the residential market, although new home sales outside London have cooled, the market for £1 million-plus homes in London remains strong.

This should ensure that Savills makes further progress this year and could trigger a higher than expected dividend payment.

Analysts have currently pencilled in 20.5p - a rise of 11 per cent. But the likelihood is that Savills could increase the payment by 20 per cent or more.

At present the shares generate a forward dividend yield of 3 per cent, but if a larger than expected payout does emerge, this would rise to 3.4 per cent. For investors prepared to stay in for the long term, this is a well-run company that throws off bags of cash. Nevertheless after the extraordinary share price run, cautious investors should probably lock in at least some profits.

[cockneyrebel] 30/6/2005 17:18

yes, savills don't deal in the US.

Might affect the stock markets in general tho - but then perhap the US property market migh tank because the stock market rockes and money flows from property to equities - who knows? If it worries you you souldn't be in shares at all I guess.

CR

[mike24] 30/6/2005 17:12

so if the US housing bubble explodes we're ok?
300% rise in las vagas over last 3/4 yrs 20% rise in miami in last qtr
ard hats on,

[cockneyrebel] 29/6/2005 16:33

Trader Horne - do you know how much UK home sales make up of Savills business?

It's part but not a lot. They say:

"The commercial property investment market throughout the UK remains strong"

"In Asia, we have seen a marked increase in activity in the commercial and
residential investment markets, and tenant demand for office space has
increased. Our European investment teams are performing well and the markets
remain strong."

"Our Consultancy business has performed well. The demand for property services
remains high..."

"The UK and European commercial property management business has benefited from
organic growth, acquisition and key recruitment. In Hong Kong and China we
have also increased the size and scope of our property and facility management
business."

"Financial Services
Our private client financial services business continues to perform well.
Transaction volumes are ahead of the same period last year."

"Fund Management - Cordea Savills continues to build on its existing infrastructure and to increase
its funds under management."

Where they do say things are quiet they say:

"Tenant demand in both London and the regional commercial markets remains
subdued."

"After a quiet start to the year, residential markets have seen more activity,
particularly in London. Unit turnover in the prime markets is only marginally
down on the same period last year, but buyers in the regions are showing greater
caution. Markets for New Homes have been more affected than second hand
markets."


Now take a look at what they said in the residential market in the statement one year ago:

2004: "The property investment market throughout the UK remains strong and although the
first three months saw a reduction in transaction volumes Savills now has a
strong order book with an increased number of instructions, both from vendors
and purchasers."

2004: "Tenant demand in London and the South East has increased due to improving
business confidence and economic conditions. Regional markets outside London and
the South East have seen an increased demand for accommodation.
Residential markets in London have experienced a marked increase in the number
of sales compared to the same period last year but we have seen recently a slow
down in activity with prices leveling off; regional residential markets have
remained buoyant."

I'd say that condsidering UK property forms only a relatively small part of the business then they are doing rather well - especially when only about 2p earnings growth is forcast for this year, there isn't a lot factored in for them to miss.

Which is why they say today :

"Overall, we are confident that owing to the quality, flexibility and broad base
of our global businesses, we are well placed to meet our expectations for 2005."

A pretty bold and confident statement at the half year point imo.

Give the funds time to think it over but I reckon there's a good chance they are a fair bit ahead.

CR

[trader horne] 29/6/2005 15:28

do I need to eat my words ? -

Citiwire item today:-

Savills says home buyers showing ' great caution'

Published: 08:34 Wednesday 29 June 2005 By Cliff Feltham, Companies Correspondent

Up-market estate agents Savills sounds its own warning about the housing market saying buyers are showing 'great caution' and sales are unlikely to match last year's.

Savills' view supports evidence yesterday from Wilson Bowden, the country's fifth largest housebuilder, which warned that half year completions will be 10% below last year.

While anticipating that it will meet expectations for 2005, Savills boss Aubrey Adams identifies a number of problem areas in the group, which spans commercial property sales and consultancy.

The £449 million group, in a trading update for the half year, says that while private and institutional buyers still have an appetite for commercial property, tenant demand in London and the regions 'remains subdued.'

The residential market has seen more activity, particularly in London, and turnover in prime properties is only marginally down on last year.

However, Adams said: 'buyers in the regions are showing great caution – markets for new homes have been more affected than second hand markets.'

The group is upbeat about prospects for its consultancy arm, saying demand remains high and it is taking on more valuation and planning experts. Its private client financial services business also continues to perform well.

Overall, Savills expects commercial property activity to remain high, but while the current level of the residential order book is encouraging, volumes are 'not expected to be at the exceptional levels achieved in 2004 especially in the new homes market.'

The shares eased 3.5p to 675p in early trading having drifted back from a recent high of 732p. They were 350p last August.

[cockneyrebel] 29/6/2005 06:59

Read that statement, it's as bullish as last years!

In fact the only weak area seems to be UK new homes, not a major part of the overall business.

I reckon these could be well ahead again this year

CR

[doubleorquits] 28/6/2005 11:08

With the market as buoyant as it is I wouldn't be surprised if they issued another positive update. DTZ report in July early as well and it will be interesting to see their outlook statement.

[cockneyrebel] 28/6/2005 09:27

Moving up today - I guess there's background buying - they had a trading statement on July 1 last year - wouldn't want to be short!

CR

[cockneyrebel] 27/6/2005 16:14

Well they seem to be performing well and the sector is alight - Cluttons are 'climbing over each other' to do business I'm told and in the words of one of their guys 'there's too much money chasing too little property'.

FLK recently put out a very positive 'significantly ahead' statement, DTZ have said they will 'exceed expectations'.

Today TLD CEO doubled his holding.

Whole sector is alight imo.

CR

[fivebagger] 27/6/2005 15:12

Darias,
Thanks. You are certainly right that recent growth has been superb and if they can juggle well internationally they may be able to keep it going. I guess it partly depends on the outlook for the global economy and in part whether the down turn in th property market here and in Australia spreads to the other markets you mention. As you say below £6 would probably represent good value and a fair dividend.

[darias] 27/6/2005 07:30

>>Fivebagger

This company is an international company with interests in China, Italy, Spain and Germany. Whilst it may be under pressure in this country the whole of the world's property sector is not under pressure.

It is also sustained by Trammel Crows Purchase with a 20% stake at £7. With only 66m shares in issue it is only priced at 457m even at current price and with 90m cash and an historic EPS growth rate of 68.11% The company appears sound.

One small fly in the ointment is the short term debt at £144m but one assumes this is money held for clients pending sale of property or property management costs. With a t/over of 328m the company appears to be adept at juggling money.

I tend to think that the company, if it continues its phemomenal growth is undervalued, however if its growth is stalled then it is fairly valued and is a good buy and I am happy to hold. It will be a good buy at a lower price - say under £6.

But no advice intended.

[fivebagger] 26/6/2005 23:07

why the rise on Friday...surely Savills must be under some pressure like the rest of the property sector? Even if they are well managed can they defy gravity?