Savills Share Discussion Threads

[doubleorquits] 02/3/2005 12:22

Willie, by my reckoning the price rise gives SVS automatic entry - i.e. not dependant on another share falling out. The only reason I raised the point about trading it in or out was that I sense that it is a lot easier for fund managers if they don't have to keep changing their portfolios. But once they have made their minds up then they will be buying ahead of the inevitable. Volume is not particularly high at the moment and I would expect the volume to increase in the next couple of weeks if SVS enters the index. Tuesday next at 4.30pm is when the prices are taken.

EDIT: Willie you have mail

[cockneyrebel] 02/3/2005 11:33

From Killiks:

Savills, the up market property consultant, announces profits well ahead of expectations at £50 million. The 2005 year has started satisfactorily and on a still sub-10 times multiple, and given its international exposure, the stock remains cheap.

CR

[williemanjaro] 02/3/2005 11:24

How near is this to the 250 entry point-you are the expert here double....?

Surely the preference would be to trade her up than away from the 250?

[cockneyrebel] 02/3/2005 10:54

Yep, a boring 50% in 3 months - bore me some more :-)

CR

[doubleorquits] 02/3/2005 10:50

Now at the FTSE250 threshold I reckon. Could be interesting from here - will it be traded into the FTSE250 or will they try to hold it back? I'm sure this happens with some shares - only a week to find out.

Sleep is boring, Willie. But it is good for you - although bedroom activity is fun as well!

[choppa] 02/3/2005 10:35

Dont look too bad.

[williemanjaro] 02/3/2005 10:26

Take me down to the paradise city
Where the grass is green and the girls are pretty
Take me home

Oh, won't you please take me to a Savills home.....

Actually-Sleep is dead boring double-but then so are investments in PEP`s :¬)

[doubleorquits] 02/3/2005 09:49

These results have smashed even the raised expectations if I read them correctly. PTP is up 50% on last year and is some 17% or so ahead of the revised consensus. The EPS of 62.2p, or the basic without goodwill and sales gains at 55.7p, is also well ahead of expectations and in fact around the forecast for next years figures. In fact they actually beat the Oriel 2005 figures of only two weeks ago.

So it looks as though the upgrades must follow - if only for the fact that with a satisfactory outlook and start to the year the 2005 figures even on a growth of only 10% would place SVS to meet an EPS of 61p. If the growth in the East is capable of driving forward at a rate of 40% over the next few years that would seem a reasonably cautious figure given that I wouldn't expect UK and European growth to stall completely. A 25% increase in the ordinary final dividend (36% overall) lends strength to this argument as well. On a three times cover basis which appears to be roughly what is achieved a 10% growth in the dividend for next year gives a consensus of 20p (before today's results) and that seems in line with a 60p plus EPS.

So a forward figure of at least 60p means that SVS continues to trade at a PE of less than 10 this morning - strip out the dividend and it is not much over 9.
CR has been hammering on about making a comparison with CWD - surely now that anomaly has to be reduced or eradicated. On a still reasonable PE of 12 or 13 SVS should be at a price of 720p-780p even with a 32.5p dividend to be paid.

No sleep lost on this one.

[doubleorquits] 02/3/2005 07:52

Sweet set of results indeed.

[cockneyrebel] 02/3/2005 07:34

Excellent ah? And 30% cheaper than that underperforming dog CWD.

Looking forward to my 32.5p divi!

CR

[doubleorquits] 01/3/2005 09:56

I thought so. :0)

[doubleorquits] 01/3/2005 09:49

I just get the feeling that this is about ready to explode into breakout mode.

[cockneyrebel] 01/3/2005 09:48

Looking well horny on level II before tomorrow's results :-)

CR

[cockneyrebel] 28/2/2005 12:38

I had to sell it sealed - the Jack Daniels bill came in a bit high this month :-)


Results Weds

CR

[sealed] 28/2/2005 06:55

LOL! Commission must be worth a bob or two on this one..

UK's Most Expensive Country House Goes on Sale ...

[shirishg] 27/2/2005 21:37

Post removed by ADVFN

[doubleorquits] 27/2/2005 20:52

Nice article. Says it all - although I think it has probably been said often enough on here already :0)

To reveal profits of £43m this week
PE of 10 (lower probably)
Yield 3%
Dividend plus special 20p dividend.

Add the following article to this one where it outlines the possibility of 40% growth in Asian markets over the next three years which is about 4 times the growth expected in Europe:

[cockneyrebel] 27/2/2005 12:31

Savvy Savills - From The Sunday Times

When Savills, the £343m (€497m) quoted estate agent, reports record results of £43m this week, staff will share in a £70m-plus bonanza, with at least 40 people taking home £250,000 each, and some up to £2m. The reason for the king-size payout is the strength of the commercial-property market, particularly for investment assets. Institutions and wealthy private buyers have piled into the sector and Aubrey Adams's firm has brokered a large number of the deals.

Contrary to earlier fears, demand for upmarket London property and country estates has remained robust. But Savills is no longer a one-trick pony. Its operations in Asia account for a third of revenues. There are also recurring profits from consultancy and a growing fund-management arm.

Savills' share price is up with events, but at 567½p it is still only on a p/e of 10. This is underpinned by a 3% yield and the prospect of another 20p-per-share special divided from the sale of a group-owned investment portfolio.

New investors will have to bite their lip. Just a year ago you could have picked up the shares for 400p, but they still offer value.

-------------

Of course, even Savvy investors here know that 2005 eps will be 60p or more and that the PE is more like 9 or much less. Then you get 12p final divi on top of that 20p special divi at the year end results next week.

Cheap or what - going to re-rate after the results imo. Is the price up with events? I don't think so - theseare growing miles faster than CWD yet the trade art a 30% discount to CWD

CR

[cockneyrebel] 24/2/2005 14:52

Just 4 days to the results - level II fattening up on the buy side :-)

CR

[cockneyrebel] 23/2/2005 12:40

This time next week SVS will be on the verge of FTSE250 entry, announcing record results and 32p in final divis - how cheap is this?

SAVILLS PLC
("Savills" or "the Company")
Full Year Trading Update
* Full year profits likely to be more than 10% ahead of expectation.
* Special dividend of 20p.
Savills, the international property advisor, is pleased to announce a trading
update for the year ending 31 December 2004.
Background
When we released our results for the six months ended 30 June 2004 on 1
September 2004 the Chairman reported that while interest rate increases would
ultimately have an impact on the UK property market, increasing tenant demand
and strong investment markets would ensure high levels of activity in 2004.
Whilst we believed that residential volumes could fall we reported that we
expected no material impact on profitability. That confidence was justified and
we set out below an update of our trading position for the year ending 31
December 2004, prior to the announcement of the preliminary results on 2 March
2005.
Main Business Streams
Transactional
Leasing markets in London and the South East appear to be improving and there
are signs of renewed tenant interest. Office markets in the regions remained
stable and are showing modest growth. Tenant demands for the best retail
schemes, both in and outside of town centres, remain strong.
Investment markets remained very active in 2004, with demand continuing to
outstrip supply. As a result yields have continued to harden across all types of
asset classes; Savills has been well placed to take advantage of these excellent
market conditions.
Momentum in the prime residential markets from the end of 2003 carried into the
first half of 2004. Although rising interest rates and consumer uncertainty
appear to have affected the mainstream market, the prime sector in which Savills
principally operates has been less affected. After a slower August and
September, there has been a marked upturn in activity in the last quarter and
although our under offer book is ahead of this time last year, we expect buyers
to continue to demonstrate caution.
In Asia, resurgence in property prices during 2004 has had a significant impact
on transaction volumes and both our commercial and residential investment sales
teams have enjoyed considerable success.
Consultancy
Savills' consultancy business has continued to make excellent progress across
the board in 2004. The valuation and housing consultancy practices have grown
their revenue streams and the new teams and individuals recruited in the last
couple of years are beginning to make a full contribution to the business.
Property Management/Facilities Management
Income from the Property Management business is very steady and we expanded this
area of activity considerably in 2004 with the recruitment of new teams in
Shopping Centre, Leisure and Retail management and acquisitions of specialist
land management firms Smith Woolley in the Midlands and Colvilles in the South
East. In Asia, Savills is well established as a market leader, both in Hong
Kong and more recently in China. On 1 December 2004, we opened an office in
Tokyo and are well placed to expand as opportunities arise. The Hong Kong based
facilities management business produced a satisfactory performance.
Property Trading
Since the half-year Savills completed the sale of the remaining properties held
within the Property trading and investment division. As announced on 10 August
2004, the sale of Talbot Green Retail Park, Llantrisant generated a profit of
#7m. Matalan, Leicester Street, Northwich was transferred at market value of
#8.5m to Savills Investor Syndicate No 1. LP and 86-88 Above Bar, Southampton
was disposed of for #2.85m; these transactions together produced a further
profit of #2.2m. No properties now remain within the property trading and
investment division. Over the last two years total pre-tax profits of #15m have
been generated from property trading and investment and these profits are
regarded as non-recurring. We intend to pass the post tax benefits of these
profits to shareholders by way of a special dividend of 20p per share payable
with the final dividend.
Financial Services
Savills Private Finance is having another outstanding year and has performed
well ahead of plan but has slowed recently. The business has expanded further
this year opening new offices in Birmingham, Brighton, Cambridge, the West End
and Wimborne and acquiring Sherwins, a mortgage broker specialising in mortgages
for the affordable homes market.
Fund Management
The launch of Cordea Savills, the fund management business that has been
recently strengthened and rebranded, was well received by the market. Two funds
have been launched since the rebranding. Assets under Management have, as a
result, increased from #1.2bn to #1.4bn and provide a recurring and valuable
income stream for the future. Initial recruitment and set up costs for the new
team coupled with the ongoing costs of further key recruitment, have impacted
profits in the short term.
Rebranding
With effect from 1 January 2005 all trading subsidiaries of Savills will no
longer include the prefix "FPD", thereby consolidating the branding of the
Group.
Overview
The current Group performance demonstrates clearly the benefits of being a
broadly based property advisory group. Commercial markets continue to be very
active, particularly on the back of strong investment demand. While we expect
prime residential markets to show some caution, nevertheless they are currently
proving considerably more robust than mainstream markets. As a result of this
the Board believes that the full year profits will exceed current market
expectations by more than 10%. The Group continues to be strongly cash
generative and this allows us to maintain our progressive dividend policy.
Ends

[cockneyrebel] 22/2/2005 21:13

They might not even need to rise from here if some of the other stuff around them falls which looks likely with the US down 1.5% tonight.

CR

[doubleorquits] 22/2/2005 20:42

The reshuffle is March 8th with an announcement probably after the close on March 9th. You'll probably hear it here first though ;0)

Still planned well, though. Maybe even better - small rises ahead of the results, rises on the results, more ahead of the reshuffle, rises once the reshuffle is announced and then sustained buying as funds pick up a nice bargain share both to track and to hold in a fund which needs growth and a nice dividend. Remember the final div is going to be around 30-33p including the special divi so it would get these funds off to a nice start.

[cockneyrebel] 22/2/2005 19:07

nirvs - the re-shuffle is based on the close at March 2nd too I think :-)

Couldn't plan it better could you :-)

CR