Savannah Resources Share Discussion Threads

[sambuca] 18/8/2019 20:06

guitarsolo
I have an electric van 2015 and it only does about 95 miles from a full charge, which is fine for me as 95% of my work is within 6 miles from my home. Before I brought the van I read that a Nissan Leaf (which is the car version of my van) with 95000 miles on the clock would only do about 35 miles on a full charge so part of my thinking was that battery technology will improve and to replace the battery today would cost about 5k, with the mileage that I do I will never get to 95000 miles in the van but should I need to replace the battery in say 10 years time the technology will be much more advanced, and hopefully the cost reduced.
Seem to have rambled a bit there but the point is Lithium as you say is the best option at the moment but is far from perfect.
As for lithium or whatever battery you never know what Elon Musk or others are doing behind their closed doors.
As for hydrogen cells I am sure that I read that the problem with them is that if you left the car at the airport and went on holiday in 2 weeks the cells would be almost empty.

Sam

[ged5] 16/8/2019 13:44

Interesting article from July. Outlines some of the problems of the lithium supply chain but it does look as though SAV is better placed than some.

Perhaps it was enough for someone to make an 85p investment!

[busraker1] 16/8/2019 13:26

Good Mining Journal article on Savannah....www.mining-journal.com/project-finance/news/1367501/zero-hour-for-lithium-in-europe

[guitarsolo] 16/8/2019 09:59

Dear Sambuca,
I appreciate we live in the age of technological disruption. However, I say 20 years because that is approximately the lifespan of a car (unless you live in Cuba!). So what is built today will run for 20 years more or less. Even with the best will in the world you can't change objects as expensive for the average person as a car at a whim. Look at diesels. After being encouraged by governments to buy them because of their improved MPG over petrol.... we now know how bad they are but the phase-out will take 20-40 years.
Hydrogen cells were/are an option but I don't see them gaining the traction that EVs now have.
So that really only leaves batteries as the power option (preferably charged by zero-emission electricity generation). The question then is, which metal is used in the battery? Lithium is way ahead of the others at the moment. Zinc and Carbon are options and have certain features that are preferable (e.g. charging rates) but the overall performance favours Lithium.
Final point, consider the infrastructure spend by the auto industry to make this change. It's huge, hundreds of billions I would guess. So once they go down one route (e.g. Lithium) I don't expect them to change in a hurry.
Final final point, don't underestimate the amount of Lithium out there. There's loads! It's no.3 on the periodic table for a reason! So the Lithium story is going to be about being first and being cost effective. The cost angle is why the brine lakes of Bolivia and Chile have been the main source for the world so far.....you just have to let the liquor evaporate (well, it's a bit more technical than that). But that is slow and can't match demand once the demand for batteries goes up. Hence the need for hard rock mining.
Guitarsolo

[sambuca] 15/8/2019 19:24

guitarsolo
Very good and interesting posts, the only thing I do have to query is that EVs are the only viable option for the next 20 years. The person that invented the hands free
phone kit for the car probably thought the same thing until some inconsiderate person introduced blue tooth.

Sam

[guitarsolo] 15/8/2019 15:17

"At least 60% of lithium mining companies will go bust within the next 3 years."

Where's your proof of that? Some miners will go bust, but why 60%? And of that 60% I suspect most will be those with higher costs or geo-political problems.

And what has Brexit got to do with it?! SAV is listed in the UK and Germany, but its assets are in Portugal, Oman and Mozambique. It is run by an Aussie? Perhaps you think Dave will be deported?

The EU is more likely than any other major trading block in the world to enforce tough emissions targets. Some of the world's largest vehicle manufacturers are European and manufacture in Europe. They will want guarantee of a reliable source of processed Lithium for their batteries. SAV's relatively low operating costs (bottom quartile) will put them in a very good position to feed those manufacturers. The issue is speed to meet the early demand before supply comes from the plentiful resources in the ground all over the place.

It strikes me that Dave Archer knows this well and hence why most of the news for the last 12 months has been about Portugal. Making money from mining is largely a matter of timing. You need to be digging out your resource and selling it when the price is relatively high. I think SAV get this and are trying to position themselves into production at the time when demand exceeds supply as EV production goes into a higher gear.

GED - I was going to mention the brine lakes in Bolivia and Chile, countries I know quite well! But they are not hard rock mines and rely on quite a different model! Besides, I think I've probably said enough!

[ged5] 15/8/2019 14:53

Excellent post again, Guitarsolo. Just for balance there are the brine salts in Chile and Argentina, but yes Portugal is well located for the newly planned battery manufacturers.

If you click on Edit above your post you can delete the second post. Just leave a full stop. It happens frequently to us all. No need to apologise.

[fqr714bhp] 15/8/2019 14:51

At least 60% of lithium mining companies will go bust within the next 3 years.

The biggest problem in current world conditions is getting finance of any sort, and lets be honest this world crisis is not going to go away, in fact it will get a lot worse over the next 10 years.

A time bomb if we leave Brexit without a deal. I have said it all along that the Euro will be cancelled by 2025.

Yes you can keep doing cash calls, until the share price hits zero and that is if any one wants to take the risk of under writing it?

And a public listing, forget that one, people don't even have the money at the moment to buy a loaf of bread. LOL

Lets hope SAV is not one of them.

IMHO.

[guitarsolo] 15/8/2019 14:00

FGR, someone "dumping" 300,000 shares is nothing.....I have more than that!

Anyone analysing this share would easily see that it has three assets; Oman, Mozambique and Portugal.

Oman: Most people thought this was dead after the failure to procure a mining license despite all 8 ministries saying they were OK with the application. Then, voila! It arrives. But if you listen to what Dave Archer has said, there is a good chance he would sell this at the right price to avoid trying to launch projects simultaneously. Probably very sensible if a good price/buyer can be acquired.

Mozambique: A monster potential asset (what is the LoM value? $4bn?). It's a dry mine and you have Rio Tinto as a partner. Mozambique is Africa but if they can get this to operation it will be very valuable. True, it has been a slow grind since 2017 but a PFS is due perhaps H1 next year I hope. That will say whether it is a project to push through or not.

Portgual: The real prize (for now anyway). Electric vehicles are the ONLY viable option over the next 20 years to do something about transport's contribution to climate change. The only viable option for batteries at the moment is Lithium-ion (compared to the zinc or carbon alternatives). There is no shortage of Li in the ground, so it is a race to extract it cheaply to be first to market. That is why David Archer is push push pushing this ASAP. Mina do Barrosa is not the largest Li asset in the world (DRC, Mexico, Australia etc are bigger). But it is the biggest in Europe and, being in Portugal, has easy transport routes to the major European motor manufacturers.

If any of the above assets by themselves got into full production, it would be worth $250-500m less the capex to get there. So that's 20-50p per share based on c.1bn shares.

If Oman is sold and provides some or much of the capex for Portugal, then you are looking at the high end of that range in my opinion. That's a lot of "ifs" but this is easily a 10-bagger from here if it is successful. Add on Mozambique and it could be huge.

The recent underwritten issue at 9p is probably a bit disappointed. But anyone who is not in this for at least 3-5 years has mis-read the investment. We won't know much until Portugal's full feasibility is complete and then, and only then, will Dave Archer complete off-takes with the likes to VW and Renault.

If you don't have that kind of patience, invest elsewhere. Or at least don't spend every day worrying about the share price and volumes.

Guitarsolo
(Sorry about the double post before.....novice with this site!)

[teemore] 15/8/2019 11:26

Good post guitarsolo- cannot understand why folk buy shares in a exploration company when the appear to think that it is a FTSE 100 company. With a exploration company you have to spend lots of money to find something, then spend much more to prove it into a possible mine, then with more drilling define the resource to maximise plant/resource
/production. When all that is completed a EIAR for planning needs to be carried out followed by getting finance in order to build the facility. Timewise the planning process /time is pretty much in the hands of officials. We would all like to see the shares above a euro but continuous moaning does nobody any good!!

[jotoha2] 15/8/2019 11:06

It will rise when the time is right , this is not a traders share , but will be at some stage , keep on buying if you belief in electric vehicles being the nest big thing !

[ged5] 15/8/2019 11:03

Behave yourself FQR.

Many of the 123million went to safe hands.
The 163million are locked in until next April

Yes we know someone is selling but it will stop and maybe soon.

[fqr714bhp] 15/8/2019 10:20

There you go, reason why share price is down.

250000 dumped.
250000 dumped.
300000 dumped.
?????? next dump.
?????? next dump.

I wonder how many they still have to dump from the 123.000.000 issued last July
I wonder how many they still have to dump from the 163.000.000 issued for the last 25%

THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU HAVE A SHARE OVERHANG THIS BIG.

Just imagine if they issue another 700.000.000 shares+

LOL.

[ged5] 15/8/2019 10:12

Welcome guitarsolo, such a good post worth posting twice!

Perhaps you should post more often.

[guitarsolo] 15/8/2019 10:07

FQR......I am normally just a spectator here but I feel compelled to respond to your rant. Look, SAV is a prospective mine operator. It hasn't started mining any of its projects yet and has never said it is. Perhaps you didn't appreciate that when/if you bought shares. By its very definition it is a "jam tomorrow" company. The feasibility studies aren't even complete FFS. If the company tried to sort all its off-take agreements and funding right now it would almost certainly get less favourable terms than if it waits until it has a larger, proven resource (particularly Portugal and Mozambique) and a full plan for the mining operation. It has mining licenses in Portugal already, but is applying for MORE to meet the larger area it now has after exercising its option over Aldea.
Mining might be underway in 2020, so that means it is 2021 before this will really fly. If you can't wait that long you shouldn't be invested here. Perhaps you jumped on a boat without doing the right research believing you could make a quick buck. Nobody wants to see the share price at these levels but it doesn't reflect the future potential IMHO.
A sensible investor here has only a small exposure of their total portfolio.
Guitarsolo

[guitarsolo] 15/8/2019 10:06

FQR......I am normally just a spectator here but I feel compelled to respond to your rant. Look, SAV is a prospective mine operator. It hasn't started mining any of its projects yet and has never said it is. Perhaps you didn't appreciate that when/if you bought shares. By its very definition it is a "jam tomorrow" company. The feasibility studies aren't even complete FFS. If the company tried to sort all its off-take agreements and funding right now it would almost certainly get less favourable terms than if it waits until it has a larger, proven resource (particularly Portugal and Mozambique) and a full plan for the mining operation. It has mining licenses in Portugal already, but is applying for MORE to meet the larger area it now has after exercising its option over Aldea.
Mining might be underway in 2020, so that means it is 2021 before this will really fly. If you can't wait that long you shouldn't be invested here. Perhaps you jumped on a boat without doing the right research believing you could make a quick buck. Nobody wants to see the share price at these levels but it doesn't reflect the future potential IMHO.
A sensible investor here has only a small exposure of their total portfolio.
Guitarsolo

[ukgeorge] 15/8/2019 09:33

Good morning FQR

[fqr714bhp] 15/8/2019 08:41

I THINK IN THE TRADE IT IS CALLED " JAM TOMORROW COMPANY"
=======================================================

[fqr714bhp] 15/8/2019 08:35

ALL SAV MANAGEMENT DO IS " TALK, TALK, TALK "

NO OFF TAKES.
=============

NO CONTRACTS.
=============

NO REVENUE FROM OMAN "EVER"
=============================

NO REVENUE FROM MOZAMBIQUE "EVER"
===================================

NO MINING LICENSE FOR PORTUGAL.
===============================

SAV DOES NOT HAVE THE FUNDS TO BRING ANY OF THIS INTO PRODUCTION. " EVER"
=======================================================================

THE BEST THING SAV CAN DO IS SELL THE WHOLE COMPANY BEFORE THEY GO BUST.
========================================================================

LOL.

[greatfull dead] 14/8/2019 17:13

Ged,

So Moz is again on the cards. Things are starting to happen...

ATB,
GD

[fqr714bhp] 14/8/2019 16:08

MUTAMBA: is a total dead DUCK.

[ged5] 14/8/2019 15:00

From this morning's tweet on the SAV website:-

“This Maputo-Temane [power] line will provide greater energy supply security for projects in Inhambane"

Must be good news for Mutamba