Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[ifthecapfits] 11/1/2019 11:51

Looks like the BOTS are taking control. Lots of smallish A trades.

[thomasthetank1] 11/1/2019 08:41

Mirabaud - Savannah Petroleum

GETTING MORE FOR LESS

Following news in December of further positive changes to the Seven Energy transaction we are upgrading numbers on SAVP. Our EBITDA estimates for FY19 & FY20 rise 79% & 81%, respectively, to US$173m & US308m, reflecting SAVP’s enlarged 75% share of cash flows and full consolidation of Seven into SAVP’s financial accounts. In parallel, under the revised structure, our Total NAV increases 24% to 89p/shr, suggesting fair value approaching 3x the current share price. With the Seven deal now in final form and expected to close this quarter, in our opinion, the scene is set for a material re-rating in the near-term. Accordingly, we maintain our BUY recommendation with a refreshed target price of 89p/shr – up from 72p/shr previously.

Revised terms deliver control of infrastructure and equity alignment: through a series of deal modifications agreed with PE partner African Infrastructure Investment Managers (AIIM) SAVP has recast the terms of the Seven Energy acquisition. The revised structure will see SAVP acquire an incremental 55% of Accugas and in parallel divest 25% of the Uquo gas field, resulting in SAVP owning 75% of Seven’s midstream (Accugas) and upstream (Uquo gas) units, and AIIM the remaining 25%.

Through increased ownership of Accugas (20% to 75%), SAVP gains control of a key piece of regional infrastructure which acts as the gateway to energy hungry gas customers in southeast Nigeria (see Accugas’s pipeline network in map in Figure 4, below). In our view, this is key to capturing the longer term growth opportunity around consolidating stranded gas resources (estimated at >40 tcf in the wider area), tapping into new regional power stations (such as Alaoji) and supplying high-paying industrial customers (currently burning diesel for an equivalent cost of >US$10/mcf – versus Accugas’s current weighted average sales price of US$3.5/mcf). Furthermore, equity alignment across Seven’s integrated gas business ensures the wider operation can be run as efficiently as possible.

AIIM cash consideration boosts liquidity and supports our wider valuation case: in consideration for its 25% stake in Seven’s Uquo and Accugas assets, AIIM has agreed to pay SAVP US$70m in cash on deal completion. This provides SAVP with a fresh source of liquidity coming out of the deal, bolstering the group’s finances and providing growth capital for Nigeria and/or Niger. Furthermore, by paying US$70m for 25%, AIIM has in effect franked the value of SAVP’s Accugas and Uquo stakes at US$280m/21p (including US$70m of cash receipts). This compares to SAVP’s current share price of 31.5p – implying little value for the Stubb Creek field (in Nigeria) or the potential in Niger. To put this in perspective, our aggregate NAV for the Niger portfolio and Stubb Creek field stands at 36p risked.

[honestmarty] 11/1/2019 07:45

Spare a thought for the poor Bstards in FLYB this morning.

That would really ruin your day.

[divmad] 11/1/2019 07:39

It's when you use the phrase, "One man's blind obsession is driving this onto the rocks" , and then later state you are a buyer, that makes readers sick with your scurrilous tactics, HM.

[rampair] 11/1/2019 07:33

Thanks very much for the update, appreciated - and reassuring that this seems well protected.

R.

[thelung] 11/1/2019 06:10

Rampair, has good updates on security in the wider region and also has a map showing Savannah's routes

It's the same website which originally referenced Chinese/Indian interest in Savannah's blocks, so keep an eye on it for a leak of the pending Niger farmout.

2018/10/01 – The Federal Government and the Peoples Republic of China, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the Chinese to assist the Armed Forces of Nigeria to strengthen its counter-insurgency capabilities

[zengas] 10/1/2019 22:44

Re the EPS - the first 1000 bopd oil is being trucked in the opposite direction 120km to the Goumeri/Jaouro export station into a pipeline to the Zinder refinery.

This will be followed by a 120km pipeline to replace trucking for 5k bopd to the same station.

If you consider that will give them around $50m/yr of free cash flow to add to the growing $150m+ from the Nigerian operations I would hope that the company then ramps up exploration successes for the possibility of a takeover/asset sale to a bigger player that would be looking at maybe 50,000 bopd possibilities as the major pipelines/sales routes get sanctioned.

[rampair] 10/1/2019 21:59

Gisjob2, hi, I assumed some oil would be trucked from southern Niger to North Nigeria, it’s all pretty much the same area, reasonably remote if you look on a map.more towns/oil use in Nigeria?
Oil is in South East Niger, Boko Haram are to the south in North East Nigeria in the Border Area,
As a shareholder I would be extremely happy to have no problems at all, simply trying to understand the situation on the ground & where the oil would proceed to by lorry.

I would hope that jointly, Niger, China & Nigeria would be controlling the area.
However there is still some activity.
Could any shareholder throw some light on the routes of any Early Production System?

R.

[mount teide] 10/1/2019 18:31

dishonest - "AK has been delaying, delaying to rejig the original deal to get full control of Accugas. As soon as I realized that I bought back in.'

Breathtaking duplicity - which predictably bears no resemblance whatsoever to anything you posted at the time.

Here's a taster for those with short memories:
'A nightmare before Xmas.
Another failed deadline.
Completion of the RTO pushed back into Q1 2019.
Is this the 5th or 6th time Andrew has failed to deliver.
And again more hard cash being transferred into Nigeria.
Now we see Niger falling apart.
The December flow test has been abandoned, now a vague mid H1.
YOU CAN FORGET THE PROMISED DIVIDEND.
One man's blind obsession is driving this disaster onto the rocks.
Gingenstein slouches toward Bethlehem.'


Bushman saw plenty of positives:
'Very positive progress being made by SAVP both in Niger and Nigeria. A transformational deal has been brought together by AK. Those with a medium to long term value accretive point view will of course understand this. Those who are shorters will not.'

Dishonest's instant reply:
'Wake up Bushman
Another failed deadline
Can't sign off RTO
More hard cash being siphoned off into Nigeria
Forget the dividend
Failure to deliver the Niger flow test.'

[bushman1] 10/1/2019 17:43

Do read Agadems detailed posts regarding today's presentation on LSE. I highlight one paragraph : ' What is your target date for the SAVP personnel to pass their hurdle prices of 47 p and 68 p for their internal incentive scheme ? ' ASAP but in time he expects the share price to be multiples of these numbers '.

[mount teide] 10/1/2019 16:24

dishonest - breathtaking duplicity - you're one of the most disingenuous charlatans on Advfn - and that's saying something because there is some pretty stiff competition.

[nen2319] 10/1/2019 15:26

Good write up on LSE from Agadem. Worth a read.

[honestmarty] 10/1/2019 15:24

Glad I bought back on here.

[ifthecapfits] 10/1/2019 14:42

I guess the presentation went well.

[bushman1] 10/1/2019 10:48

Excellent presentation by AK. Q & A follows. 10.55 hrs.

[gisjob2] 10/1/2019 08:17

Northern Nigeria ?

[rampair] 10/1/2019 08:02

They have had a number of meets with larger concerns to add “ colour” I expect it’s the nomads way of balancing things out. I would like to get some idea of how the EPS
May or may not be affected by local insurgents in Northern Nigeria (Boko Haram) I expect the Chinese to have serious security arranged and we have Moslem investors in Niger, maybe we are ok.?

R.

[nen2319] 10/1/2019 07:44

I’m going to miss it but looking at the questions over on LSE board it’s going to be a good one. If anyone is listening to it can they pls post some thoughts or record it even?

[bushman1] 10/1/2019 07:37

The conference call at 10.00 hrs this morning is linked to the previous two corporate presentations on the SAVP website.

[wardrv] 07/1/2019 11:44

Looks routine to me, they have held them on a number of previous occasions following the announcement of significant news. All looking good here.

[beergut] 07/1/2019 10:22

Any ideas on why the call this Thursday?

Savannah Petroleum PLC, the British independent oil and gas company focused around oil and gas activities in Niger and Nigeria, will host a conference call for retail shareholders at 10am (GMT) on Thursday 10 January 2019. The call will focus on the recent amendments to the Seven Energy Transaction, as announced in the Company's RNS of 21 December 2018.

[honestmarty] 04/1/2019 10:51

Ifthecapfits

Does the Hambro purchase not give some confidence that the "Nigeria" factor is

under control?

My concern has always been that I would wake up to a "It's all been a big scam, I've been had again, love Andrew XOXO" RNS.

Hasbro must have looked at all the details before forking out over 10 million quid?

[ifthecapfits] 04/1/2019 10:35

AFREN - sends shivers.

[honestmarty] 04/1/2019 10:34

I hope you are correct.

I've just held my AFREN scarred nose.

And bought back in.