Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[shareideas1] 15/10/2018 15:52

Simply flow... ticking back up now

[shareideas1] 15/10/2018 15:52

It was a cross - ie a seller to a buyer

[nen2319] 15/10/2018 15:47

So why is the price down by over 4%?

[bushman1] 15/10/2018 15:34

As a matter of interest, the large trades were buys.

[shareideas1] 15/10/2018 13:12

Barcap crossed the shares - its a real trade

[westmoreland lad] 15/10/2018 13:09

From another site. No sign of 21,369,217 shares traded.

12:45:35 33.5000 24,000 O
11:55:10 33.9800 2,942 O
11:53:31 33.9800 120 O
09:48:23 33.8000 906 O
09:28:29 33.8000 6,478 O
09:24:19 34.3800 894 O
09:17:47 34.0000 8,842 O
08:48:36 34.0000 4,000 O
08:44:27 34.4800 1,413 O
34.0000 5,665 O
08:24:52 34.4000 5,000 O
08:10:29 33.5000 9,777 AT
08:00:21 33.4970 4,460 O


Buy Volume 24,606
Sell Volume 49,891
? Volume 0
Total Volume 21,433,714

[orvis] 15/10/2018 11:46

Last 3 trades = 21,369,217 shares. At 33.8p thats &7,222,795 in total

[ifthecapfits] 15/10/2018 10:58

£15+ million? Can someone explain that.

[rampair] 13/10/2018 02:06

Is that a slight smile Litho? I hope so. I also really hope you get your return here, we’ve had a bit of banter but at least you are honest and a proper investor unlike some on boards one has to put up with.
Besides , if you get what you want the price will rise and that’s what I want 😆

R.

[lithological heterogeneities] 12/10/2018 16:26

still nothing :0)

[ifthecapfits] 11/10/2018 10:09

Malcy - FWIW.

An update from Savannah this morning in which the company announces that it is extremely close to obtaining Ministerial Consent in relation to the approval of the Seven Energy transaction.

The company has submitted the the revised terms as announced on 20th September to the DPR and has been informed that the ministry has completed its due diligence in relation to, and is fully satisfied with the transaction. Indeed, the application is being processed and will imminently be with the Minister for final approval.

There are no added comments from the company, as one might expect, as whilst the deal is not yet rubber stamped it would be premature to celebrate early but they are surely nearly over the line. This has taken a lot of hard graft and more time than the market and investors had expected but it will undoubtedly bear significant fruit over pretty much any timescale. On a day when markets around the world are falling rapidly and the oil price has had a bad couple of days I am not surprised at the muted response but expect a significant rise before long.

[thomasthetank1] 11/10/2018 08:21

Hannah & Partners comment

Savannah Petroleum PLC - Update on Seven Energy Transaction

The Nigerian Department of Petroleum Resources, the Company is pleased to confirm that the DPR has informed Savannah that it has now completed its due diligence in relation to, and is fully satisfied with, the Transaction. Following submission of the revised terms of the Transaction detailing the additional acquisitions, as announced by the Company on 20 September 2018, to Further, the application for Ministerial Consent for the Transaction is currently being processed with the DPR for further transmission to the office of the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources for final approval. As per the announcement on 20 September 2018, the Company continues to anticipate that the Implementation Agreement will be executed by the interested parties by the end of October 2018. Savannah therefore continues to expect the Transaction, including the Ministerial Consent process, to complete during Q4 2018.

This is good news for Savannah and as whilst waiting for the Seven Energy transaction to close, the market has grown impatient, leading Savannah to now trade at a ~64% discount to our risked NAV of 80p/sh. We believe the market is pricing a large discount on the closure of the Seven deal in Nigeria as we carry >40p/share of core value from Uquo, Stubb Creek and Accugas Midstream.

[thomasthetank1] 11/10/2018 08:16

Mirabaud note below:

SAVANNAH PETROLEUM - NIGERIAN DPR SIGN OFF

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) has announced a positive update on the Government approval process relating to the Seven Energy transaction taking the group a step closer to completion. Following the recently announced deal changes involving the buy-out of minority stakes in Uquo and Stubb Creek, the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) has informed SAVP that it has completed its due diligence and is satisfied with the transaction. Accordingly, following due process, the DPR is preparing an application for consent with the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources for final approval. In our view, securing the blessing of the DPR is a clear indication of the direction of travel and we believe that ultimate sign off from the Minister is essentially a formality at this point. Alongside progress on the Government approval front, SAVP also reiterated this morning that it expects to sign the implementation agreement later this month, allowing the transaction to close in Q4, as per earlier guidance.

[shareideas1] 11/10/2018 08:10

Beauty is we will get another update later in the month when the said agreement is irrevocably signed!

[ifthecapfits] 11/10/2018 08:08

Shame this was released today!

[bushman1] 11/10/2018 07:25

As per the announcement on 20 September 2018, the Company continues to anticipate that the Implementation Agreement will be executed by the interested parties by the end of October 2018.

Savannah therefore continues to expect the Transaction, including the Ministerial Consent process, to complete during Q4 2018.

[bushman1] 11/10/2018 07:08

Savannah Petroleum PLC Update on Seven Energy Transaction
11/10/2018 7:00am
UK Regulatory (RNS & others)

Savannah Petrol (LSE:SAVP)
Intraday Stock Chart
Today : Thursday 11 October 2018

Click Here for more Savannah Petrol Charts.
TIDMSAVP

RNS Number : 6643D

Savannah Petroleum PLC

11 October 2018

11 October 2018

Savannah Petroleum PLC

("Savannah" or "the Company")

Update on Seven Energy Transaction

Savannah Petroleum PLC, the British independent oil and gas company focused around oil and gas activities in Niger and Nigeria, is pleased to provide an update on the process of obtaining Ministerial Consent in relation to approval of the Seven Energy Transaction (the "Transaction").

Following submission of the revised terms of the Transaction detailing the additional acquisitions, as announced by the Company on 20 September 2018, to the Nigerian Department of Petroleum Resources (the "DPR"), the Company is pleased to confirm that the DPR has informed Savannah that it has now completed its due diligence in relation to, and is fully satisfied with, the Transaction. Further, the application for Ministerial Consent for the Transaction is currently being processed with the DPR for further transmission to the office of the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources for final approval.

As per the announcement on 20 September 2018, the Company continues to anticipate that the Implementation Agreement will be executed by the interested parties by the end of October 2018. Savannah therefore continues to expect the Transaction, including the Ministerial Consent process, to complete during Q4 2018.

Unless otherwise defined, capitalised terms are as per the Company's Admission Document dated 22 December 2017.

[bushman1] 11/10/2018 02:32

Large seller AND large buyer both active these past couple of days hence why share price ' neutral mode ' at 34 p plus / minus.

[mount teide] 08/10/2018 11:37

ngms27 - by largely sticking to industries you know extremely well from a technical/professional perspective and have long senior management experience of - you then know exactly the type of questions to ask.

Few CEO's of companies in the shipping/ports/commodity space hold high level professional qualifications for these industries and even fewer other than people like Nick Clarke also have decades at the operational/management coal face on their CV's and have proved themselves in building high value for shareholders in the recovery stage of previous commodity cycles. So it is relatively easy to sort the wheat from the chaff as far as management with investment potential - it does not guarantee success but in our experience certainly helps to dramatically move the investment risk odds in our favour.

The most important equity investment lesson two friends and I (all global supply chain senior management veterans holding the highest professional qualifications that both the global shipping and ports industry currently examines for) was to read lots of Brokers Research/Notes of companies in the sectors we have worked professionally in for close to 40 years.

It quickly became obvious that the highly articulate and plausible analysts who carried out the 'research' and wrote the Broker analysis/reports had little professional understanding never mind operational experience of the industry. We soon realised this put us at a huge advantage to the rest of the market since much of the Broker research(with a few notable exceptions) is extremely well written and plausible but largely complete nonsense.

We concluded since the brokers analysts carrying out research in other industries/sectors were also highly unlikely to hold any professional qualifications or long hands on management experience - their 'research' too was likely to be of extremely limited 'value' at best or as we generally found in our area of expertise more likely to be highly misleading.

In the global shipping industry the youngest age its possible to obtain the highest professional qualifications is 27 - and that assumes you pass every examination first time and have the requisite minimum number of years of first hand management experience required before you're even allowed access to the exam room.

Our strategy honed over decades is to keep our investments largely to the industries we have long professional experience of and go in extremely heavily during the early years of the recovery stage of these highly cyclical long term markets - its true contrarian investing as the equity performance tends to lag the price recovery of the underlying asset for the first 2-3 years before taking off - as a consequence its usually possible to build large positions without the price getting away since there is usually little buying pressure.

Commodity markets like oil and copper have followed circa 15-18 year cycles over the last 50 years - the oil and copper new market cycle is now 2.5 years into its recovery stage and has been providing investors with the first opportunity since 2000-2003 to effectively get in close to the ground floor before commodity equities start to outperform relative to the underlying production asset and wider near peak equity indexes.




AIMHO/DYOR

[ngms27] 08/10/2018 10:10

Mount Teide, I've done that 4 times including a well known one where the answers to my questions made it clear that AST were only going one way.However with two other companies they answered very well, one around a World Class play fairway that ended up being full of failures and decimated the company.So from my point of view you may weed some out but you certainly have no certainty around the ones you don't.It all falls down to: Do you feel lucky punk?

[thomasthetank1] 08/10/2018 08:13

Barclays note on Savannah Petroleum

Becoming more tangible

Operational progress for Savannah has accelerated recently, which we believe can kick-start the investment case centered on its exploration successes in Niger and its gas monetization strategy in Nigeria.

Detailed plans for the Niger Early Production Scheme underpin its addition to our increased 43p/shr tangible NAV and price target (from 38p). In Nigeria the extended wait for completion of the Seven Energy acquisition has not prevented Savannah making progress in its search for new domestic gas customers and tidying up the ownership structure of the assets being acquired. We rate the stock Overweight and see potential for further tangible progress to help de-risk some of the upside potential in both countries and drive a 65-70% increase to our 2020-21E post tax operating cash flow estimates.

Cash flow from Niger on the horizon: Savannah intends to quickly convert test production at its Amdigh-1 discovery into a commercial Early Production Scheme (EPS) selling an initial 1kb/d domestically from early 2019, rising to 5kb/d by year-end. The plan commercializes ~50mmbbls. With flow tests and regulatory approval hurdles to pass, we risk our valuation of the EPS at 67% and do not include it in our financial forecasts yet, but we estimate 5kb/d of production from late 2019 could add $55- 60m/year to our post-tax operating cash flow estimates for the company.

Focusing on Nigerian domestic gas opportunities: Low-cost transactions with its partners on the Uquo and Stubb Creek fields increased Savannah’s ownership of the gas resources at both fields. This fits with the company’s pursuit of new higher-price gas demand from industrial consumers close to its current distribution network. Heads of Terms have been signed with 3 new customers in the Calabar area, which would justify a new 20Mcf/d pipeline extension that can be operational from early 2020. Such deals could accelerate the development of Savannah’s ~370Bcf of net 2C resources.

Funded through 2019: We are confident that Savannah is funded through 2019 by which point it should be generating robust free cash flows from Nigeria and Niger. The new $50m 3-year debt facility provides an alternative to the $63m of gross proceeds that could come from exercise of the 35p/shr warrants that expire in February 2019.