Savannah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[rockyride] 17/6/2024 17:40

HiNice to hear from you and glad all is good with you.Sorry not to see you at the AGM this year but we are planning to have a live webcast if you would like to view the proceedings and you may submit questions in advance if you wish. Please register on the AGM page of our corporate website (Link: https://www.savannah-energy.com/investors/shareholder-information/general-meeting/)You will be sent an access link a short while (approximately 30 minutes) before the AGM is due to commence.Andrew will be in attendance, but it may be via video link.Kind regards,Sally

[sooty snipes] 17/6/2024 13:44

How long can a share be suspended? This is getting ridiculous

[buffythebuffoon] 17/6/2024 06:18

‘ Buffy - if ss completes, I would imagine any other aquisition would probably not be bigger than the market cap, if the deal goes through if you know what I mean.’

Andrew Knott said that to me when the Seven deal was proposed!

AK reminds me of John Malkovich playing Pascal Sauvage in Johnny English. Hell, he even had a fragrance named after him. 😂

Buffy

[chopsy] 16/6/2024 15:51

So no reverse suspension.

[upwego] 16/6/2024 04:37

Good post Zen.. let`s hope we can get this deal closed.

Buffy - if ss completes, I would imagine any other aquisition would probably not be bigger than the market cap, if the deal goes through if you know what I mean.

[napoleon 14th] 15/6/2024 13:43

I'll second that.
Good LTBH rewards if even half of that actually happens...
else it will have been years of sterile money.

[rockyride] 13/6/2024 14:16

Z - BRILLIANT post TY

[zengas] 13/6/2024 12:22

If you go back to FinnCaps valuation of 4th Jan 2022 using $60/b Brent and fully diluted.

They had the NET valuation as
1. 3 TOP cases/ Accugas = $570.7m.
2. 80% Net Uquo 74.2 mmboe 2P @ $4.40/boe. = $326.4m.
3. 51% Net Stubb Creek 7.1 mmboe 2P @ $9.1/boe = $64.6m.

Above $961.7m/£740m net to Save.

They also had Saves net share of the contingent resource valued at $25.6m for Uquo + $21.7m for Stubb Creek = $47.3m which value Saves net share of Nigera operations for $1.009 billion or £776m.

My own workings are considerably less in places -
Gas contracts have risen since 4/1/22 but i've left Accugas valuation as then = $570m.
Reduced the Uquo price per 2P boe X 20% to $3.50/boe = $261m.
Reduced the Stubb Creek price per 2P/b x 50% to $4.50/b = $32.3m.
(This totals $863.3m versus FinnCaps $1009m).
Added the value of the Sipec acquisition (S/Creek) at $60m.

I've added the 2C Uquo/S/Creek and Sipec 2C value in at 50% discount to at least $30m.

For me this represents a more sensible achievable sales valuation at $953m/£733m now for the Nigerian assets. (using £1=$1.30 exch rate)

That's gives a fully diluted share price of 51.8p.

FinnCap have $163m for the Niger 2C which will convert to 2P later this year and AK says this is worth $150m. I've discounted this to $100m/£77m = 5.4p

Current net debt with the late payment and Sipec factored in (see my 7/6/24 post 2903) $430.9m/£331m) = 23.5p.

I get a valuation of at least 57p net debt free or 33.5p with debt for Nigeria and Niger which i believe i have significantly discounted.

If you use the same $3 per 2P barrel that FinnCap used for Doba and apply that to South Sudan - basing it on 300 mmbls (this was on the AI reported figure) that's $900m base value (The headline price was $1250m).

Using $900m/£692m = 49p/share fully diluted for South Sudan - how much will be debt idk.

My base case is 49p S.Sudan, 51.8p Nigeria, 5.4p Niger = 106p on a net debt free basis.

Current Net debt is around 23.5p. If South Sudan was left with $300m net debt then that would equate to another 16p or 40p net debt in total that will come down even if only selling 15,000 bopd in S.Sudan ie 30%.

Like i say i've discounted this way below the analyst figures, haven't included anything for the expected additional resources/exploration/Niger upside, haven't included the $32.1m cash for the warrants in additional value. Still $10m+ in installments longer term to come from Fenisko not included. There's also been $40m non recurrent spent on superior compression facilities with each train capable of 160 mmcf/d out (320 mmcf/d) as well as other infrastructure. Nothing included for the additional gas sales contracts since early Jan 2022.

There's some minor value that i haven't considered in laying the ground etc for the Solar/Wind/Hydro projects being in motion.

Finally $1.22b claimed in damages from Chad Doba, Totco,Cotco etc. $400m on success factoring in the loss/dilution to the company/shareholders at the time would be worth just shy of 22p.

Imo no matter how you look at it, it's worth much more than the current 26.25p depending on what combination assets we have or gain and supposedly more in the pipeline.

[mount teide] 13/6/2024 10:09

As found with pricing of the Petronas Chad assets(significantly more attractive than even the very good deal for the Exxon assets), the Petronas business plan is to accelerate divestment out of their mid/late life assets, particularly across the maturing O&G basins of Africa and SE Asia.

In this respect, some of the deals Petronas have been offering interested parties for their assets have been outstanding for the BUYER. Jadestone bought 6,500 bopd of shallow water producing assets from Petronas, located offshore Malaysia, for a headline price of $9m - when the deal completed less than 6 months later, the time which had elapsed from the effective date of the deal, saw Patronas hand over the assets to Jadestone free of charge, along with a cheque for $9.2m.

Consequently, with respect to the SS deal - if history is a reliable guide, would expect Petronas to be very flexible ie: willing to negotiate an attractive price/payment plan adjustment to the original deal to provide Savannah with financial protection from the significantly increased political and commercial risk that has developed from the changed circumstances post agreement of the deal, as a result of the break out of civil war in Sudan - which has severely reduced the capacity of the export pipeline for a protracted period, and considerably increased the risk of future disruptions.

[rockyride] 13/6/2024 07:34

What do you think the share price would come back at if SS closed with a balance payment of circa $500m, all to be paid from future production but with ZERO production at deal closure if the pipeline was not operational at all?

[buffythebuffoon] 13/6/2024 06:51

‘I’m sure Petronas have more they would like to get rid of in Africa, SAVE having built a strong relationship with Petronas, I would imagine once this is over the line SS, there will be more on offer from Petronas.‘

Oh great, another 5 years with the share price going nowhere. Hey, at least we’ll be on the map.

‘I think all holders here deserve it after the long wait..’


You could argue that as investors here we absolutely don’t deserve it! Not that deserving anything was relevant. Do you think that consoles patients with Motor Neurone Disease.

Buffy

[upwego] 12/6/2024 20:34

Zen,

I`m sure Petronas have more they would like to get rid of in Africa, SAVE having built a strong relationship with Petronas, I would imagine once this is over the line SS, there will be more on offer from Petronas.

I would very much like SS to complete, as it would put us on the map with both serious production and insane cash flow, I think all holders here deserve it after the long wait, but nothings agreed yet and still waiting.

We shall see.

[zengas] 11/6/2024 13:50

On inorganic growth, regardless of waiting on S.Sudan completion as a $1.25b major acquisition, how big could the next 'significant' acquisition be perhaps before year end ?

P4 "We continue to actively review new acquisition opportunities focused predominantly on: cash-generative, or near-term cash-generative, upstream and midstream assets; and/or “bolt-on”; assets for which there is significant synergistic value to our existing operations".

P24 2024 KPI on 'inorganic growth' "to deliver at least one significant M&A opportunity" (on top of completion of the South Sudan and Sipec acquisitions).

P26 "We expect to continue to acquire hydrocarbon businesses."

[tiers] 10/6/2024 19:49

Thommie you and me both. Definitely very good acting, writing shall I say :)

[thommie] 10/6/2024 19:39

Im shocked. The sunbed troll was our Agadem? Holy....

[divmad] 10/6/2024 18:10

Because only on keyboards can anyone attempt to start over in life with a clean slate. A dream scenario for some.

[buffythebuffoon] 07/6/2024 17:11

The multiple posting was a clue I guess. I don’t understand why someone would change their handle after building a good reputation.

Oh, hold on…. 😂😂😂

Buffy

[tiers] 07/6/2024 16:48

No way! You’re sunbed!? Your posts and sun’s are very different! I never would have guessed! Come on give us some raps. Absolutely love your raps 😄 that was hilarious. Love both the rock and the sun. Have a fab weekend. Can put that bed away. No use.

[rockyride] 07/6/2024 16:37

Tiers - I'm here this is who you're asking after!

[tiers] 07/6/2024 16:11

About to log off.. but sunbed all of a sudden comes to my mind. Where are you Sun if you’re reading? Surely you couldn’t have sold? Come on here and say hello.

[rockyride] 07/6/2024 15:13

A very decent report by Malcy. If it wasn't for the fact that we know IR do fuxk all, I'd have suspected that they'd written it for him PMSLAndrew Knott has reported a good set of financials today and his comments are upbeat, reporting Total Revenues of US$260.9m (11%+ ahead of guidance) and average gross daily production of 23.8 Kboepd, broadly in line with FY 2022 production when adjusted for a planned maintenance programme. These results coincide with the Savannah Annual Report which is always worth a read with articles about the company ethos and some thought-provoking pieces from other distinguished authors These numbers beat guidance and show that Savannah's business model is robust, which together with sufficient corporate capacity and infrastructure mean that the core business performed strongly. In Niger, for example, despite last year's political changes, Savannah has announced that flow testing will commence in Q4 2024 and should lead to first oil in H2 2025 or early 2026, to be transported through the newly-operational Niger-Benin pipeline. The company is progressing two 'material' hydrocarbon acquisitions in South Sudan and Nigeria. Although the market awaits further details on the proposed acquisition of all of PETRONAS' assets in South Sudan, it's worth noting that in 2023 these assets produced 149 Kbopd (gross) of crude oil, materially lifting Savannah's gross (and net) production on completion. Savannah has already undertaken significant preparation work associated with the completion of the acquisition, which is now targeted for Q3 2024.At the same time, Savannah is also uber committed to grow its renewables business which is shown by the growth of up to 1 GW+ of projects in motion by end 2024 and now a new target set of up to 2 GW+ in motion by end 2026 – exciting projects such as the up to 250 MW Tarka wind farm in Niger and the up to 95 MW Bini a Warak hybrid hydroelectric and solar project in Cameroon. These are large-scale projects expected to supply up to 34% of Niger's electricity demand and boost Cameroon's on-grid electricity generation capacity in Northern Cameroon by over 50%. Funding via two leading Development Finance Institutions is already secured for two-thirds of the development of the Tarka wind farm project, with project sanction expected in 2024 and first power in 2027. The Cameroon project is not far behind, with project sanction expected in 2026 and first power in the 2027 to 2028 window. Savannah are clearly excited in this area and I understand that they are positioned very strongly to announce further new projects this year.Nigeria remains the backbone of the company currently and the $45m being spent on the compression project at the Uquo CPF is expected to operational in H2 2024 and will enable significant further growth in gas production 'over the coming years'. Also, completion of the SIPEC acquisition this year will materially boost reserves and resources and thus is expected to more than double oil production at Stubb Creek to 4.7 Kbopd on completion and debottlenecking plus, with the addition of 227 Bscf of 2C Contingent gas resources, secures significant additional feedstock gas supplies for existing and future customers well into the future.So I would say that Savannah is looking very strong in its key focus areas, as I have said above it has a number of strictly defined targets according to that 'robust' model. Shareholders can expect a significant increase in renewables, further hydrocarbon acquisitions and of course the refinancing of the Accugas debt facility, closing of SIPEC and with the Chad disputes ongoing with claims of over $1bn at the arbitration processes set to conclude by end 2025. I'm very much looking forward to the shares returning from suspension.

[rockyride] 07/6/2024 13:41

got them to change the report:-Savannah Energy shares are currently suspended due to a reverse takeover by Petronas International Corp. Last traded at 26.25 pence in December 2022.

[fireplace22] 07/6/2024 12:54

Given the deteriorating state of the Chadian assets and the eventual cost of compensation you'd think the govt would invite Save back in?

'We believe the assets have suffered because of the nationalisation, with the Government of the Republic of Chad's own figures suggesting that Doba field oil production has fallen by 25% . This contrasts substantially with the planned 20% increase in production Savannah had anticipated over the same period and equates to an estimated more than US$235 million annualised loss of potential tax revenue for the Government of the Republic of Chad.'