Savannah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[upwego] 23/8/2023 08:28

5 weeks to go or sooner as per rns.

Fingers crossed folks it`s been a long wait, just hope we can nail this acquisition.
It would be serious fireworks and could possibly triple the share price.

Off to golf!

[napoleon 14th] 20/8/2023 13:14

I was worried Sahel-Africa situation was deteriorating. This is now a fact.

[thommie] 15/8/2023 14:00

hTTps://www.ecofinagency.com/public-management/1807-44739-south-sudan-operational-challenges-hamper-daily-output-increase-plansAlso interesting and could explain the lower production volumes.

[thommie] 15/8/2023 13:58

hTTps://tradingeconomics.com/sudan/crude-oil-productionIt looks like there are a lot of production numbers around that are completely different. But the numbers in the link seem to match with what I remember from production numbers discussed on this board out of various source since the SS deal announcement. The production for 2023 is currently expected to be around 150k bopd gross by official government sources that you can find on the internet and is expected to drop to 130k bopd in 2024. Ofc without further investments..

[thommie] 15/8/2023 12:49

Does someone kmow if part of the oil is refined in SS or Sudan? Or are they exporting all produced crude and reimport the refined products from elsewhere?

[interzone] 15/8/2023 12:47

From the report, the average barrels per day from Jan 2022 (assuming that is the effective date) up to July 2023 has been just under 118,000.

[interzone] 15/8/2023 09:59

The Bloomberg article shows previous months South Sudan shipments. March was certainly a dip

[captain james t kirk] 15/8/2023 08:39

Although only a few weeks after March 2023, this may be of interest to folk :

Bloomberg
US Edition

By Okech Francis
April 20, 2023 at 2:13 PM

South Sudan’s oil production is flowing as normal despite heavy fighting in Sudan, where the crude is exported, according to a government minister.

Clashes that first broke out in Sudan on April 15 have persisted amid efforts to negotiate a truce. South Sudan, which became independent from its northern neighbor in 2011, relies on pipelines that traverse Sudan to transport crude more than 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) from its fields to tankers in the Red Sea.

South Sudan’s Oil Minister Puot Kang Chol said oil facilities, including pipelines, pump stations, field processing facilities, field surface facilities and the export marine terminal in Sudan, are well protected and safe from any damage. Production has been steady at 169,141 barrels a day and contingency plans are in place to maintain it, he told reporters in Juba, the capital.

The conflict has slowed supply chains flowing south, according to the minister. That’s “mildly affected” the delivery of equipment and critical materials to the oil fields, and plans are being formulated to use safer alternative routes.

[affc21] 15/8/2023 07:10

Hi Thommie,I initially thought the oil outflow (reduced as a precaution) for March may have been due to the ongoing conflict in Sudan, but that can not be the case, due to that the internal conflict began on the 15 April 2023.Perhaps oil pipeline maintenance, but not read anything to suggest so???

[thommie] 14/8/2023 21:46

I mainly wonder why the exports in march were that low? Wasnt the net production of the petronas stake alone supposed to be around 50-60 000 bopd? The gross production was around 180 000 bopd in 2021-2022.Ofc Im not aware what amount of the produced oil is refined in SS and Sudan...

[affc21] 14/8/2023 20:39

Sudan Oil Exports Rising Despite ConflictBy Alex Kimani - Aug 14, 2023,Crude exports by South Sudan have climbed to their highest level in almost two years despite an ongoing war between Sudan's government forces and a paramilitary group that erupted in April. Crude shipments now average 154,839 barrels per day, about double March's figure at 77,419 barrels per day. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Sudan-Oil-Exports-Rising-Despite-Conflict.html

[1madmarky] 11/8/2023 17:49

Cheers Dude!

[porschefund] 11/8/2023 12:14

Post from RockyRide on LSE this morning following his call with Camarco.

We got very high level gov buy in in SS before SPA signed

Nothing changed operationally since SPA signed but politics changed due to minister changes and Sudan war

I think SS gov see priority is dealing with Sudan war and change of company in country not top of their agenda

AK spending most of his time in SS trying to get gov sign off. I get impression other work streams complete

We need auditor sign off for H1 financials and auditor sign off for ad doc

SAVE trying to get auditor to do the above as one process for both and determined to get done by 29/9

I can’t see ad doc being issued before 29/9, I suspect 2 RNS on that day for H1 financials and ad doc

Made very clear to me at beginning of call we do not need gov sign off to issue ad doc and relist but AK does not want to come back W/O gov sign off and be in another Chad situation

I think nomad may say enough is enough and you need to comeback on 29/9 even if W/O gov sign off

AK cards close to chest re next SPA

We are still getting paid for 41% of Costco but nothing for Doba or Totco - as we knew would be the case

No update on ICC case to me of where Coup in niger leaves well test or 2 x renewable deals

Accugas debt still making progress but no indication of timeframes

My summary, I think we could well come back on 29/9 with 2 x RNS, preferably with gov sign off but may be forced to come back without. Whether AK gets sign off before then is anybodies guess. All seems good to me on the whole as a company but the next phase of our evolution is all down to one single humungous signature.

PS massive thanks to the person on the phone this morning, I was massively impressed with your depth and breadth of knowledge. thank you for your time, professionalism and sharing with me what you were allowed to.

Have a good weekend all and hopefully a lot more to talk about 7 weeks today with resumption of trading at 8.00am on 2nd October.

[sunbed44] 07/8/2023 08:37

There will be soon bud, I think everybody might be waiting for news.

[plentymorefish] 07/8/2023 08:24

Not much volume yet……230;…

[plentymorefish] 06/8/2023 19:44

I guess it will depend on the volume………particularly in the afternoon!…230;…good to see you around, not much longer to wait hopefully!…230;…

[sunbed44] 06/8/2023 16:21

The chart looks primed for a good rise here, golden cross shortly. What do you think PMF?

[sunbed44] 06/8/2023 10:52

Hope the deal closes before a coup takes place in south sudan ouch

[interzone] 06/8/2023 07:56

Interesting article on Niger and democracy in the Sahel region

[thommie] 05/8/2023 22:58

Just chill. It's no option for me to sell my shares even if the readmission isnt done in circunstances that favour the so development in the near future. I wont sell if SS completes, as I will be waiting for the ICC ruling that in my opinion has a big chance of being decided in saves favour. If SS fails I will still wait for the ICC ruling and wont sell my shares for cheap. So in the end it doesnt really matter what happens next... Niger is sad, but not a big problem. It would be a good option to earn money over the course of the next 10-20 years if everything works with further exploration sucesses and production of current findings. (in the next 2-3 years at best adding 5kbopd production) thats just marginal... When Niger would be stable and exploration sucesses would go on like before Agadem could add big production numbers starting in 5-10 years from now, but would also need big capex before earning anything. So nothing material in the timeframe Im looking for. Even if we lose the renewable projects in Niger - so what? Although it's the right thing to do in our current state of the world to try to produce energy renewable the return on investment is marginal and isnt comparable at all with the oil deals. So it just doesnt matter, it would even put a burden on save in the medium term, as it would cost a lot of up front capex before any revenue comes in... I just put photovoltaik on my roof, it currently will take around 15-20 years before I reach the breakeven and maybe start making some money with it... Its still the right thing to do, why I did it and it feels very good to produce 4 times the energy you need yourself, but it doesnt yield benefits like other investments can if they work... So again, just chill. Good things take time :)

[1madmarky] 05/8/2023 22:32

Thanks Interzone, I was curious as to what others thought.

[interzone] 05/8/2023 18:48

Agree 1MadM, think the down side for Save is limited. In the annual report they stated that the terms had been changed as a result of the Nationalisation, suggesting Save had already identified it as a possibility and built it into the contract terms with Exxon.Ak is no mug imo.