Savannah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[gisjob2] 27/7/2023 14:10

Zengas,

You misrepresent my position by only mentioning Niger to suit your agenda! I'm completely happy with Nigeria and have always been happy to do business in Nigeria and am happy for SAVE to do more business in Nigeria in the future, this has conveniently slipped your mind.

Just because SAVE called themselves a West Africa focused company when their projects were based in West Africa does not preclude them from considering other African countries when expanding so I don't see why an investor should think any different. Especially when we all know SAVE have considered some potential acquisitions that have not been West Africa which sort of proves the point.

You are correct some countries can be stable for a while and then change, others have had a history of being bad places to do business. There are a number of relatively safe African countries to do business, certainly more reliable than places like Chad & DRC etc

For info I've worked on projects in about a dozen African countries in my time but pointless to name them unless projects are available for SAVE to consider otherwise it's just self-indulgent ramblings

[divmad] 27/7/2023 13:13

I can name you one African country that seems to be pretty clean and open for business with Western countries, Morocco.I wonder why AK doesn't run the slide rule over what Predator, Prd, is discovering and likely to be proving up shortly in the Guercif Basin? Going cheap, still, as the emerging natural gas story is still under wraps until the full scale of the play is announced. 1Tcf+ is likely to be a very conservatively sized resource, with very attractive economics. It will be sold to an industry player with deep pockets, sooner rather than later.

[captain james t kirk] 27/7/2023 13:04

It's easy to say commit fraud, when one is sitting behind a key board and posting on a bulletin board.
Not so easy when you have to source and deliver the package and do the time if caught.
Not to mention the reputational damage for life, together with the impact such action would have on institutional investors.

[thommie] 27/7/2023 13:01

Ofc you are right Zengas. The only problem is the reality on the african ground has nothing in common with our european anti corruption style. (which to make it clear I am absolutely sharing)Over the years I had contact with so many african people. Some were even colleagues. And although not all were exactly the same, it was clear that the mentality was completely different to ours.Although Andrew should be used to that, as he seems to be in africa for the vast part of the year.

[zengas] 27/7/2023 12:34

' Perenco under Investigation for Corruption in African Countries
April 2, 2023

The French-British oil and gas company Perenco is the target of several preliminary investigations opened in France for corruption of foreign public officials, particularly in African countries where it operates, according to sources close to the investigation.

As part of these procedures, the Parisian offices of the company were searched by investigators from the Central Office for the Fight against Financial and Fiscal Infractions (Oclciff), who are in charge of the investigations, these sources confirmed, corroborating information from Challenges.

The sources, however, did not specify the number of investigations opened, their opening dates, the countries targeted, and the date of the search.'



I would think it would be even riskier for a PLC to take such a risk in the recent and current climates for any signs of corruption not only by ourselves but the others that are out there also doing deals in the region.

[zengas] 27/7/2023 12:18

gisjob - What are you on about 'not understand' and being 'obsessed with West Africa' ?

It's where the company was and is foccused and i did not say it - they said they may consider other african countries recently. I chose and still choose to being invested in Saves strategy.

Instead of generalising about there being better countries - how about naming them or why invest in a company that as you put it should have stuck with Niger. One so called respected country may be tomorrows failure. We are not the only company that have come to the region and are presently doing deals in West Africa as if we were somewhat out on a limb. There are others with similar government approvals waiting and Save was 2 years in getting the Nigeria deal though long before most of the major divestment programmes.

Thommie I don't think it's anything to do with being anti corrupt and in hindsight on Exxon Mobil in Chad just making a bonus payment - we are not aware of the facts and for starters was it ours to pay? Or upend all methods of doing business. Perenco is reported publically to be under investigation by the French police since March 2023 for practices in several African countries and in one particular allegation of payment to governments.

[thommie] 27/7/2023 11:14

I just dont know why this government approval is always the problem. This deal is spoken of since january 2022. I would expect SAVE to have spoken with the government in advance if they would grant it. In Chad it was sth special, as the former leader died that gave the sign that the deal will be approved.Now we are 1,5 years later and the government in south sudan still didnt give formal approval to the deal. I more and more get the impression, that Andrews strategy isnt the right one, as he doesnt seem to be able to meet agreements with the involved government bodies to grant it. Ofc it's as outlined before beneficial to save if it drags on and gets finally approved by the government as it reduces the final asset price after adjustments day by day or better to say lifting after lifting which means lower interest rates in the future. But if it is terminated in the end that doesnt help at all.As I said before maybe the whole reason Andrews government approvals are so hard to get is the fact that he wants to be anti corrupt in countrys where people are born and educated into personalities that always aim to capitalize on their positions for personal benefits. If you take that option away they just stop working in your favour. We would have been so much better of by now if we just agreed on paying the additional 70m$ on top of Exxons 30m$ exit bonus to chad. How much time would it have taken to get that money back from sales? 6 months?

[gisjob2] 27/7/2023 10:55

Zengas,

Which part of 'there's plenty more countries to invest in, some even in Africa' do you not understand.

I've always been content with operating in Nigeria and yes content with Niger. I'm also content with some other African countries but nobody will convince me Chad, DRC etc are sensible countries to invest in,
and yes I've worked in many African countries for a very large multi-national oil company so I feel able to attribute risk thank you.

You said yourself SAVE have looked at diversifying elsewhere in Africa so I don't understand your obsession with West Africa only and the point you're trying to make.

The Goalpost move is sadly in your head, unless you're suggesting that SAVE must only diversify in West Africa because that's where they were first ! Especially as you admit yourself they've looked elsewhere.

[zengas] 27/7/2023 10:38

"There's plenty of more sensible countries to invest in, some even in Africa."

Then why invest at all in a company that was West Africa focussed at the outset even though they now mention other parts of Africa as possible.

No point in you moving the goalposts now gisjob2.

[gisjob2] 27/7/2023 10:04

Zengas,

Yes lets diversify in Chad and Cameroon instead, that will help! oops!
At least we haven't lost our Niger project yet.

I'm all for diversification just not Chad / Cameroon / DRC / Mali / Burkina Faso etc etc etc.
There's plenty of more sensible countries to invest in, some even in Africa

[upwego] 27/7/2023 10:00

Interzone27 Jul '23 - 09:41 - 1976 of 1978
Post from Sajy on LSE:

'Just had it confirmed that the AD will be published by the end of Q3 and not tomorrow. Also government approval is not a condition for the AD to be published but the company would prefer to have it. Got the impression it will happen much sooner than end of Q3.'

Hi Interzone does this mean that suspension will continue until the AD document is forth coming?

[upwego] 27/7/2023 09:51

Good Point Zengas. That`s why you have to have more countries of operation. Looks like another delay then on the AD suppose will just have to keep waiting.

[zengas] 27/7/2023 09:41

Where's all the let's just stick to Niger advocates ? Nigeria please no !

Covid, pipeline delay, no sales outlet, domestic sales to refinery not fully paid to Chinese.

Spend all our capital raisings on building reserves and still months away from production.

Wake up to Coup - Bad incompetent management, no other assets /diversification- change pants (2-3 pairs).

To all those advocates against diversification, (particularly when we had non recourse debt financing in our favour re risk) and that we should just have stayed in and developed Niger - are now the same worriers over the present Niger coup. Today's your answer on that strategy if you think the situation in Niger is as bad as you think !

[interzone] 27/7/2023 09:41

Post from Sajy on LSE:

'Just had it confirmed that the AD will be published by the end of Q3 and not tomorrow. Also government approval is not a condition for the AD to be published but the company would prefer to have it. Got the impression it will happen much sooner than end of Q3.'

[zengas] 27/7/2023 09:05

Has anybody read or listened to the military statement on the coup.

"We reaffirm our commitment to respecting all the commitments made by Niger. We reassure the National and International community that the physical and moral integrity of the deposed authorities will be respected."

I don't see any change to what Save are doing and intend to do. Fully expecting it to be normal business for the country to function and continue to grow its prosperity under different leadership (if it lasts).

Just looked at AIM listed Hummingbird resources who have their main assets in Mali and Guinea that have BOTH been the subject of very recent military coups (and previous). Business as usual, gold output unaffected, mines developed, revenue as was expected and share price growth this past year regardless of coup impacts. Perfectly normal for borders to be closed to prevent outside interference which could possibly make matters worse. 'Current' President Bazzoum had them closed a number of times against Nigeria to stop smuggling and much consternation about local community and wider inter country trade.

The main concern is getting South Sudan over the line for me.

Niger at a full 5,000 bopd would be less than 7% of total revenue on S.Sudan completion along with Nigeria. It's unlikely to reach that until later in 2024 when connections are made etc as first phase was to go beyond 1500 bopd. At the agm there was no guide on new exploration until self funding or a partner so was hoping news on new exploration by mid 2024.

Prior to year end at least one new hydrocarbon asset to be announced and as yet size/location unknown.

[divmad] 27/7/2023 08:23

Only Nigeria left now.

[1madmarky] 27/7/2023 08:22

Oo a coup in Africa... must be a day ending in y

[fft] 27/7/2023 04:46

Beginning to get an idea why most people avoid African energy producers - or nearly all African Companies. :-(. In the world of top trumps, army always wins :-(Chad, Cameroon, South Sudan, Niger.Nearly a full house !

[plentymorefish] 26/7/2023 19:15

Let’s see how the share price reacts tomorrow…̷0;…

[sunbed44] 26/7/2023 19:04

Wonder if they will look to nationalise the Agadem oil field