Sanderson Design Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 04/8/2022 15:55

I used to have a lot of respect for Paul Scott until I found out that his biggest holding is BOO. He has literally lost hundreds of thousands of pounds on that pile of poo.

He also highly rates SCS which is another sucker stock.

He is calling everything he likes cheap without any reference to the current market conditions.

[essentialinvestor] 04/8/2022 15:51

Dan, there are over 1.8 million shares traded today, so far -
you may be overestimating the difference any posts here make to the SP, nada.

[dan_the_epic] 04/8/2022 15:48

"Dan_the_Epic21 Dec '21 - 11:45 - 721 of 1107 Edit
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I have not attempted to force anything lower but I do think this has had its spot in the daylight and a period of underperformance will follow next year but I am bearish the markets in totality.

trt, I will not be reporting you and I was never going to, but it really grinds my gears when people write things on these boards that are claiming news leaks positive or bad on no grounds

I will stop being Mr Grinch! merry Xmas y'all"

I was right on the way down and I will be proven right on the way up. This is the time to be BUYING not SELLING. Where were any of these posters last year calling it as a time to SELL? and when i was BEARISH the markets in totality right before the WORST HALF FOR MARKETS in DECADES

Investors should now be buying beaten down stocks. Why some investors dont get this i will never understand. Stocks like SDG are PRICING IN ARMAGEDDON. We can all see a hard environment? You're not clever to point that out, the stock has tanked!!!! you buy here, not sell.

Simples. ;0]

[dan_the_epic] 04/8/2022 15:45

I am here because it it obvious that many here want to buy in cheaper, they dont want to say what they think today's value for the stock is because they know they'll be buying in before it reaches their lowballed expected price

;0] Know the games.

[disc0dave45] 04/8/2022 15:43

DanThey've said nothing other than sales are flat and they anticipate to be inline.So to hit sales forecast they will need 5% greater sales in H2 than H1. Pre pandemic FY H2 was lower, as was last FY. The max Rev H2 weighting in the last 5 years has been +7% (2017/18), so on sales alone it's hit and miss IMO especially given the macros. No mention this time either on managing input costs etc or margins, just that they think they will meet forecasts but they really don't know what H2 will bring - ergo they can't be too certain can they!.Will leave it there as got a headache from all your shouting lol.Good luck and I may return in Oct.

[shbgetreal] 04/8/2022 15:38

Hmmm... with all due respect, trying to time widespread panic(i.e. current market moves) is by definition not investing, but a usually hiding to nothing.

A company is cheap based on its price versus its current balance and prospects, rather than how low it may have been dragged by an emotionally incontinent market.

[essentialinvestor] 04/8/2022 15:37

Dan, with respect it sounds like you are trying to convince yourself.

Most people who post here can see the longer term attractions, or else they
would not likely be wasting their time, those who are cautious now just happen
to see this going lower as we head in to recession.

[dan_the_epic] 04/8/2022 15:15

if it takes 2 years that is a 40% RETURN CAGR added with dividends

See the big picture. It even traded at this level only last year !

[dan_the_epic] 04/8/2022 15:13

He understands investing because he writes

The share price is 107p, so the current year PER, confirmed today as in line, is only 7.3 - that seems remarkably cheap to me.

AND

I could see this easily doubling in price, once economic conditions are more normal, however long that takes?

The big money is made AFTER share prices have tanked and the market is pricing in armageddon as if these companies are not going to be around for another FIFTY plus years

[disc0dave45] 04/8/2022 15:10

He does love SDG, and I have the utmost respect for the guy, but he does get them wrong like the rest of us do occasionally.He also said that "the market is clearly imagining that there could be an H2 profit warning, which can't be ruled out, given how wobbly the macro position appears to be".Which in truth could be said of a lot of stocks, but I'm thinking the same as the market at the moment based on stagnant H1 sales and what they've not said in the update today.

[dan_the_epic] 04/8/2022 14:52

King Paulypilot has written just now keyed up SDG that he likes this and thinks its cheap. The man has a great brain on him ;0]

[essentialinvestor] 04/8/2022 14:08

I keep a small amount of these, on the outside possibility of a bid as their
brands have growing longer term value.

But that does not prevent the valuation becoming cheaper with the share price heading
lower, possibly much lower.

I've mentioned previously it may be worth taking a glance at the longer term
chart going back to before the GFC. Past performance does not necessarily ..etc
and now SDG head in to this downturn with a large net cash balance
and arguably better management.

[disc0dave45] 04/8/2022 13:43

Dan Upper case is SHOUTING! Sorry but I don't think I've said that at this moment this is not good value, all I've said is that I don't believe it could prove to be good value in the future based on what they've said today, but once again only time will tell. If I've missed an opportunity to make a profit then so be it, but I'm happy to wait.I've been buying stocks that have clearly demonstrated they are in recovery and growing, with fundamentals and outlook statements that clearly shows and supports value and that the market has overshot to the downside - I don't see that here, sorry.Truly wish you good fortune and I hope their interims provide more clarity and the share price reacts accordingly.

[dan_the_epic] 04/8/2022 13:28

or become a GINORMOUS fish and move the share price yourself ;0]
what others will think tomorrow is important, not what they think today. so why we look for points of maximum pessimism and buy then

[rcturner2] 04/8/2022 13:24

Dan, I only buy a share where I think the price will go up. The price only gets moved up by other market participants, therefore I do spend a lot of time thinking about what others are thinking. I agree this seems odd but has been a known paradox since at least Keynes.

[dan_the_epic] 04/8/2022 13:20

Thank you for the good reply DISCO as I now understand your view, but I naturally disagree. The problem is I cannot shake that if you believe SDG is not good value that you must think every stock is overvalued because this is already on an EXTREMELY below market PE. Which stocks do you like that you feel are not overvalued? LOTS of stuff is on 20x P/E for 5% growth with some NET DEBT, not on 7x PE with lots of cash,.

[disc0dave45] 04/8/2022 12:49

DanPlease don't shout, I do know given what they've said today that I don't see enough to convince me this is undervalued. Their net income is forecast to more than double that pre covid (2019) but earnings have been falling or fairly low growth. Why with 65% gross margins do they only have normalised eps average CAGR of minus 12% pa. My initial interest here was to see a business that's prepared to optimise its gross margin to ensure bottom line growth exceeds inflation (now is the time) but I'd suspect that that will not be the case here (or at least I'd like to have seen definitive signs that their profit growth beats inflation). Can talk all year about what this should be rated at but the world has changed and excessive "growth" ratings of the past won't be the same going forwards. And IMO this is not a growth stock.You seem fixated with what the price is this instant and that they are without any doubt going to hit forecasts, that's fine, your prerogative as a holder I'd expect nothing less tbh, but I see it differently that's all. If they miss earnings or show zero / negative growth (which on sales seems likely) then this could well prove to be overvalued- truth is we simply don't know. We each see things differently and that's what makes a market.As posted, will now wait to see what their interims say.

[dan_the_epic] 04/8/2022 12:48

The BOE, the bastions of economic forecasting like the FED and JIM CRAMER ;O]

[essentialinvestor] 04/8/2022 12:45

net, you might want to peruse today's BOE statement on the UK economic outlook,
it's a shocker. Yes SDG is an international group etc.

[dan_the_epic] 04/8/2022 12:13

thats a stupid way to invest if you are just second guessing everyone else. IF you're just a market lemming you never make money. you have to have a DIFFERING view and then for that DIFFERING VIEW to turn out to be true. When Taylor wimpey was 11p in the financial crisis am I meant to trot out the line that everyone thinks its heading bust so I should not buy?? A HUGE 700k stock trade just went through. Is the overhang gone??

[rcturner2] 04/8/2022 12:12

It doesn't matter what you think. It matters what the majority of market participants think.

[our haven] 04/8/2022 11:55

I said that it was nonsensical before the opening.Probably just day traders hammering it down for a quick buck.Once they are gone it should recover