San Leon Energy Share Discussion Threads

[red5] 11/7/2022 07:12

Hmmmm i would have thought this would have shot up but hey ho.

[red5] 11/7/2022 07:07

now up 40% really?

[hpcg] 11/7/2022 07:07

Moving up now 55-57

[red5] 11/7/2022 07:05

hpcg where are you seeing that?

[hpcg] 11/7/2022 07:03

The auction seems to be firming somewere in the 45-50 range.

[red5] 11/7/2022 07:03

so nothing so far

[alaric7] 11/7/2022 06:05

to add some flesh to the bone on my comments below on Nigerian Government policy on foreign direct investment in their oil sector, this a recent post of mine elsewhere:
'indeed opportunities for agile well funded hydrocarbons businesses will abound in Nigeria after the Petroleum Industry Act, which President Buhari signed into law at the end of last year. this is what PwC say about it on their website: 'The Act seeks to provide legal, governance, regulatory and fiscal framework for the Nigerian Petroleum Industry. Despite being a major source of revenue, the oil sector lags other sectors in terms of GDP contribution. If implemented diligently, the PIA will help facilitate Nigeria’s economic development by attracting and creating investment opportunities for local and international investors.'
San Leon was one of the first companies to move as the majors pulled out of the onshore Niger Delta licences, by helping to finance Midwestern's/Eroton's takeover of OML18. now investors can see what has driven this rto and beyond to a new world of opportunity. essentially San Leon will become a local player but listed in London with access to capital and equity markets.'

[red5] 10/7/2022 21:09

D day tomorrow let’s hope we don’t get shot up

[alaric7] 09/7/2022 15:32

thanks Redtrend, most helpful indeed. a powerful and well balanced board. Oisin of course is the master deal master and Joel Price, whom I've met is a very safe pair of hands on the geological and petrophysics front. Jite is well represented by his people and of we have Mutiu Sunmonu. nothing not to like about it.

[red5] 09/7/2022 14:57

Honestly this one has been the trickiest investment i ever made absolutely no idea where this is headed like the rest of us. Put in 100k on this one and it should have been at least 10 bagger by now

[redtrend] 09/7/2022 14:05

Alaric - admission document confirms Mutiu Summonu will stay as Non-Exec Chairman.

11. Board
The Board will not change as a consequence of Re-Admission and will therefore consist of the following individuals:

Mutiu Olaniyi Adio Sunmonu, Non-Executive Chairman (aged 67)

Oisín Brendan Fanning, Chief Executive Officer (aged 64)

Joel David Price, Chief Operating Officer (aged 50)

Julian Lester Tedder, Chief Financial Officer (aged 52)

John Davies Brown, Independent Non-Executive Director (aged 58)

Adekolapo Ademola, Non-Executive Director (aged 55)

[red5] 09/7/2022 13:54

personally if this does not get to get up £9-£10 i will feel disappointed

[alaric7] 09/7/2022 12:57

"The deal is entirely in the hands of Martin Hughes,' i think that ship will have sailed some time ago hpcg. i doubt we'd have gotten this far without his wholehearted support. reckon we're into weeds now ploughing through the consents and approvals

[red5] 09/7/2022 12:56

will there be a price that they will placed back on or is it purely driven on trades?

[hpcg] 09/7/2022 12:40

Carcosa - a lot has changed since they were suspended. As others have said the oil price is up, but in addition Nigeria is massively under-producing on its OPEC quota, and OML18 has a reasonable export path. Secondly the deal, which did not exist at the time of suspension, unravels a horribly complex crossholding structure. This makes understanding the company much easier. Thirdly we become a fully trading company rather than a lending company.
The deal is entirely in the hands of Martin Hughes, and I don't imagine he will act out of his own best interest. There is risk in that for us minority holders because his interests and our interests are not identical. If it falls apart then presumably we foreclose on the loan and take assets. Possibly not easy in Nigeria.

My own analysis is still ongoing.

[red5] 09/7/2022 10:50

Just Wondering if san leon could reach £10

[red5] 09/7/2022 10:37

IC had good article on african crude - titled Renewed focus on Africa in global oil and gas rush

[red5] 09/7/2022 10:35

Alaric 7 i do believe more in line with that synopsis - no way was hike in oil prices factored in.

[alaric7] 09/7/2022 10:05

chances of the RTO completing? carcosa says 'I would say close to zero.'
i might have some sympathy with that view if San Leon were viewed simply as an Irish/ British company but the RTO, into which our Nigerian partners have also put much blood and sweat over the last year, will change all that. we become a majority Nigerian owned vehicle with highly influential Nigerians involved. Jite Okoloko is hugely respected in his home country and rightly so. Harvard educated and a former Ernst and Young young businessman of the year, he now becomes a really important figure in the Nigerian economy. the Nigerian government is desperate to get the onshore marginal licences operating efficiently again, so they can at least reach the Opec quota. it goes without saying that hydrocarbons are the most valuable parts of the Nigerian economy. i don't know yet if the Admission Doc states whether Mutiu Sunmonu will stay on as Chairman. i do hope so. as a former head of Shell Nigeria, he is of course a big figure in the regional market with connections both political and financial. personally i think this thing has now got way too much momentum to falter. and that would be particularly embarrassing for President Buhari, who has put much personal and political skin into seeing investment come into the marginal licences (and all the betterif that has a foreign element). such things matter a lot in Nigeria. carcosa may be right that the share price could come off on Monday, as investors and traders like him go for the exit, after this extended period of suspension, but long term value holders have not waited this long for the great news yesterday to pack up now. and i believe we will see new funds moving in to pick up bargains from those leaving. much has changed, not least the price of oil, and i gather the barges they are likely to be using typically each hold 10000 barrels. moreover it is simply absurd to suggest that the previous share price already reflected some upside potential it barely covered cash and secured debt. even at 10.5% of this world class license, we were barely valued as an explorer and we certainly aren't that. there are many things to happen in the remaining months of 2022 but they are all very positive things and there is simply no business reason in the present context to suspect they won't

[carcosa] 09/7/2022 05:15

What has actually happened to the company since last year?

Nothing. It's effectively the same company today as it was last year and to a certain extent the share price already reflected potential upside prior to the shares being suspended (they were never cancelled).

What is being suggested is a highly complex deal requiring an awful lot of items not under the control of SLE to fall into place in a timely manner scheduled to be completed some months into the future. Realistically what is the chance of that happening? I would say close to zero.

Lets say, for sake of argument, Malcy's thoughts are correct about valuation i.e. x4 current share price. That is the belief of of the valuation post RTO. How much would an investor be prepared to pay today for those shares knowing full well that the deal could be scuppered for any one of a 100 reasons and the almost running certainty that the deal, if it goes ahead, is likely to be delayed? Notwithstanding that operational risks remain sky high post deal.

If current shareholders really believe in the story then they would be fools to sell for only a 200% gain on Monday when they could double their money again before the end of the year. They sell because they know the risk going forward means that of the deal collapses their shares are likely worth very little.

In reality it's all about risk premium. On that basis I would be extremely happy for Monday's closing price to be +20%

When the 'Supplementary' prospectus is published later this year then potentially a 100%+ increase in the share price could be warranted; but not before then IMO.

Of course I hope I am wrong and Monday's share price action is considerably better than I expect because I would definitely want to sell most or all of my current holding.

[leopoldalcox] 08/7/2022 21:50

Don't forget when the shares suspended, the price of oil was much lower. Taking that into account, I am hoping for higher than 60p

[pastyman3851] 08/7/2022 20:11

My guess is 60p, quadruple the holding in oml18 but double the number of shares in play, take off that we've used the loan/interest to cover some of the payment. But in good old SLE fashion, it'll shoot up but then start to come back down slowly to the 40p. My only concern is that we had about 10% and haven't received any payments from oil sales, will that be the same at 44% as as far as I can remember, no payments will be made until some old government fees are paid up and we've been waiting years for that to happen with no end in sight. At the moment we seem to have swapped a good steady income stream for a hopefully excellent one but with the possibility that we'll have to wait until the old government debt is cleared.I do hope for great things from the lion but I've been here over 10yrs and I've seen so many of these transformational deals done and my initial 13p in old money (£13 per share) now worth only 40p (hopefully more on Monday) that I'll live and hope :)Good luck to all the other SLE shareholders and bad luck to CT and every other deramper

[gary hindsight] 08/7/2022 20:01

Wish these people spamming boards with trading strategies on bit coin and the like would sod off.