San Leon Energy Share Discussion Threads

[red5] 08/7/2022 19:50

so anyone hazard a guess on what the price might be monday yes i know the market will tell us but would be good to hear some predictions.

[gary hindsight] 08/7/2022 19:42

Agree it was poorly written and no punctuation so the quote from Oisin flowed straight into comment about quadrupling the value so can't tell if that was part of the quote or not

[hpcg] 08/7/2022 18:49

I'd take Malcy's views with a pinch of lard. He gets one thing wrong anyway, the onshore part of the pipeline is used for the barging operation so there is either no wastage or the same wastage when the full pipeline is in use. Do your own analysis, which thankfully we have the weekend for.

[gary hindsight] 08/7/2022 18:26

Will see Monday morning if market agees and how much is discounted due to outstanding risks of non completion

[gary hindsight] 08/7/2022 17:14

Is the comment about quadrupling the value part of the quote of Oisin or Macy's view?

[red5] 08/7/2022 17:09

God willing should say

[red5] 08/7/2022 17:09

God willing should say

[red5] 08/7/2022 17:06

Good willing make 300k on top of of the invest of 100k

[pejaten] 08/7/2022 15:52

Great that the listing will be restored on Monday

[pastyman3851] 08/7/2022 15:46

Monday we'll all find out by the looks of things

[philby1] 08/7/2022 12:04

Macy's comments,

After a long wait this truly is a transformational move for SLE and will indeed ‘consolidate and simplify the Group’ who will now be exposed to a 44.1% initial indirect economic interest and will own 50% of ELI.The CPR gives them 2P 323m barrels, an NPV of $1.1bn.

As CEO Oisin Fanning said to me this morning, ‘now the real work begins’ on SLE which has massively increased its assets and with current economics, in my view quadrupled the value of the company. I would suggest that this serious rerating will put the new combined group up there with the best in the industry.

On an operating basis the company are going to physically gain much more crude oil in two ways, the pipeline is very important and scheduled to be ready maybe by the year end thus almost totally minimising the ‘leakages̵7; which presently add up to some 40%. In the meantime the company has started barging operations which will also significantly remove the leakage.

Perhaps more importantly for shareholders, who have been waiting patiently during the long suspension, they are going to get a right to the substantial cash flows inherent in this deal via an issue of Preference shares. As I see it this ensures that it does as it says on the tin by giving these shareholders a preferential right to the first $40m of any future dividends paid by San Leon.

Inevitably there will still be a number of questions that need to be answered such as when the shares will return from suspension, I would expect pretty soon, when Government approval will come through, hopefully by September/October.

I have been a strong supporter of San Leon in recent years as I believe that when they stated that they would return 50% of free cash to shareholders that amount of money could mean that the company will yield over 20% on an ongoing basis. There are still things to clear up such as free float and timings of some parts of the deal but as the shares return and the markets gets it the share price should rise significantly.

[red5] 08/7/2022 09:57

So what facts do we agree on has there been a time set to come back from very rough reading i could not see any?

[hpcg] 08/7/2022 09:44

Gary - the pointer to the going concern statement is clear in indicating that the situation is improved post transaction.

Included within the basis of preparation note of the financial statements and Independent Auditor's report are details regarding material uncertainty related to going concern. This is uncertainty is mitigated by the transactions announced today. Cash and cash equivalents as at 31 December 2021 were US$7.6 million (includes US$6.8 million restricted and held in escrow for the Oza transaction) (31 December 2020: US$18.5 million including US$6.8 million restricted and held in escrow for the Oza transaction).

So most likely we are dependent on production and the barging operation. It would be good if the pipeline opened at the end of this year too of course.

[a0469514] 08/7/2022 09:39

I think that the scary sounding risk statement to the effect that the viability of the company could be at risk if the deal does not go through is in there to make sure that our shareholders vote the deal through when the time comes. It is pretty obvious which way the vote will go but they will be required to state the risks just in case.Xylos

[gary hindsight] 08/7/2022 09:00

Hi yes I agree and wasn't expecting them to trade so far but if admission doc is published today as promised it didn't indicate that trading would be restored today

[pejaten] 08/7/2022 08:55

In the announcement it mentions that the admission document will be published later today. What we are reading now is the RNS, not the admission document

[cd27idw] 08/7/2022 08:39

I was focused on the deal and never really looked at the results, hence I missed the going concern bit. That's really worrying, as in the current economic climate, and sod's law prevailing, sh*t usually happens. On the plus side, MLPL have got a waiver on $99m loan charge tied up in the deal. Surely that'll float the company? More sleepless nights ahead.

[gary hindsight] 08/7/2022 08:36

KaosThe reason to issue pref shares is to reward shareholders in the existing company. The first 40m of divs will be paid on pref shares in priority of any divs paid on the new sharesWe were expecting a dividend flow based on the interest on the loans previously made which will be cancelled. So this is a way of making sure we get what was originally planned

[rimau1] 08/7/2022 08:34

Kaos. Its quite simple and we discussed it on this BB a few months back. The preference shares are a mechanism to reward existing shareholders previously committed capital returns. New stock purchased will not have these preference rights.

[hpcg] 08/7/2022 08:33

This is positive (but down the line, so not material):

Following completion of the MLPL Reorganisation and the ELI Reorganisation, it is the Company's intention to evaluate the potential for and benefits of, in due course, seeking a listing of its Ordinary Shares on the Official List, Premium Segment and the admission of those shares to the main market of the London Stock Exchange, subject to satisfaction of all regulatory requirements and approvals.

[kaos3] 08/7/2022 08:32

what I like is economics: equity financing is better than 14 % financing (note) returns. I salivate ...

[kaos3] 08/7/2022 08:31

I do not understand why issuing preference shares? just or one divi payment is not enough of an argument for such a consequential opperation ...

if one can explain to me in a plain language .....

[hpcg] 08/7/2022 08:29

The share count increase is much smaller than I anticipated, but then we have a lot of sway over the deal with the debt. The fundamental question for those asking about the share price on resumption of trading is whether you think the whole caboodle is worth $381mn or more (ignoring the prefs).